The classification of risks, which involves their division into groups according to certain criteria, makes it possible to assess the place of each in the overall system and creates potential opportunities for choosing the most effective appropriate methods and techniques for managing risks. The basis of the proposed classification personnel risks principles of complexity, continuity, hierarchy, autonomy, flexibility
Taking into account where personnel risks are localized, they are divided into two large groups: external and internal.

External personnel risks are negative influences external environment which have an impact both on the processes within the company as a whole and on its personnel security.
External personnel risks include:
- political - imperfection legislative framework, activity public organizations, movements, parties, etc.,
- economic - inflationary processes, a difficult situation in the labor market, etc.;
- socio-demographic - getting employees into different kinds addictions (alcohol, drugs, etc.), activities of the criminal environment, etc.;
- natural and climatic - floods, landslides, etc.; technogenic factors;
- market (competitive) - the presence of competitors more attractive working conditions, luring employees, exerting external pressure on employees (bribery, blackmail), etc.
The internal ones are personnel risks, the sources of which are located within the organization. They can be no less destructive than external ones. It should not be forgotten that there is a close relationship between external and internal personnel risks. It may consist in the fact that a source of external danger, for example, a competitor, purposefully reinforces morbid tendencies within the rival organization in order to weaken or destroy it entirely.

Internal personnel risks, in turn, according to risk sources, are subdivided on personal risks and risks of the personnel management system.

Personal risks arise as a result of manifestations of professional, business and personal qualities enterprise personnel. In turn, personal risks include the following types:
- biological risks (age, health level, psychophysiological features, abilities);
- socio-psychological risks (demotivation, loyalty, social roles performed, interpersonal conflicts);
- moral risks (beliefs, convictions, values, culture);
- intellectual risks (level of intelligence, education);
- economic risks (creative and professional potential, qualifications, work experience);
- risks of unreliability (short-sightedness, negligence, sudden change in financial situation, gullibility, deceit, criminal record, etc.).
The risks of the personnel management system are differentiated by subsystems of the personnel management system:
1) risks associated with personnel planning and marketing, including:
- lack of allocation of positions from which the most dangerous security threats can come;
- ineffective determination of the required number of personnel (or lack thereof);
- non-optimal quantitative composition;
- balance of gender, age and educational groups of personnel;
- low qualification level, etc.;
2) risks associated with labor relations, including:
- the presence of conflicts of interest between employees and the employer;
- unfavorable socio-psychological climate in the team;
- unformed policy of honesty in relation to clients, employees and the employer;
- lack of measures to identify, prevent and suppress undesirable actions on the part of employees that could cause harm to the interests of the organization, etc.;
3) risks of working conditions and labor protection, including:
- lack of measures to preserve and maintain the physical and psychological health of personnel;
- inefficient socio-economic working conditions;
- unfavorable psychophysiological and sanitary and hygienic working conditions;
- inefficient organization of personnel work;
- irrational modes of work and rest, etc.;
4) personnel motivation risks, including:
- lack of a staff motivation program;
- no system liability;
- lack of motivation among employees to make initiative proposals to improve the safety of the organization;
- lack of incentives to retain staff;
- lack of mechanisms to identify the motives and reasons for the dismissal of valuable employees and the place of their subsequent employment, etc.;
5) risks of personnel training and development, including:
- lack of connection between training and evaluation of results;
- the structure and culture of the organization do not contribute to the implementation of the acquired knowledge;
- lack of relationship between training and certification procedure;
- poor quality of education, etc.;
6) risks of business evaluation of personnel, including:
- lack of assessment of various forms of manifestation of disloyalty and unreliability of employees of the organization;
- different standards for workers doing the same job;
- the similarity of beliefs and views as a factor influencing the business assessment;
- subjectivity of methods of business evaluation of personnel;
- assessment of the employee not by the results of activity, but by personal qualities;
- changing standards in the course of business evaluation;
- use of a narrow range of estimates;
- comparison of employees with each other, and not with performance standards;
- lack of business evaluation conclusions, management decisions and etc.;
7) risks of social development of personnel, including:
- lack of conditions aimed at increasing the loyalty of employees;
- no additional social guarantees reduced staff and employment assistance;
- lack of a social package, taking into account the safety requirements on the part of the organization and the employee, etc.;
8) risks of an inefficient organizational structure, including:
- groundlessness of the number of personnel, taking into account the development strategy of the organization;
- irrationality of the organizational structure of the organization;
- lack of personnel management service;
- inefficient functional distribution of responsibilities and duties for personnel management, etc.;
9) risks of legal support, including:
- lack of control over the observance by the employee of the current labor and civil legislation in the performance of labor duties;
- lack of measures to minimize the liability of the employee and the employer for arising labor disputes;
- lack of local regulations regarding personnel security, etc.;
10) information security risks, including:
- lack of information and explanatory work with employees of the organization about the rules for conducting confidential business negotiations, communicating with clients, tactics of behavior in attempts to recruit and blackmail, ensuring the information security of the employer at work and in non-working hours;
- untimely and high-quality provision of complete and reliable information necessary for the performance of labor duties, etc.

In turn, among the risks of personnel, one can name the risk of violation of the rights and freedoms of the individual, physical and mental violence at work, humiliation of honor and dignity, the risk of damage to health, the risk of losing a job, the risk of reducing income.

The personnel risks of an organization include the risk of a decrease in tangible assets, the risk of losing information resources, the risk of forming a negative image of the company, the risk of bankruptcy.

State personnel risks include the risk of default, the risk of social instability and tension in society, the risk of public protests, labor strikes, the risk of distrust of the population and the resignation of the government.

According to the results of activities, pure personnel risks are distinguished, which are caused only by the possibility of losses due to the fault of the personnel, for example: risks of disability; risks of fraud and theft, etc.; and speculative personnel risks associated with the possibility of both loss and increase in income, for example, recruitment risks, organizational culture risks, etc.

According to the criterion of potential damage, personnel risks are subdivided on local, medium, significant and global (strategic) personnel risks.
According to the degree of regularity of the potential manifestations of risk can be identified as one-time or occasional, regular and permanent personnel risks.
According to the degree of sensitivity to personnel risks various groups stakeholders allowable, acceptable and unacceptable personnel risks should be distinguished.
According to the degree of legality, justified(lawful) and unjustified (illegal) personnel risks.
In addition, depending from the causes personnel risks can be divided into accidental (not intentional) and non-random (purposeful).

Introduction

For most executives and managers, the security of any enterprise - large and small, commercial and non-commercial, industrial and operating in the service sector, does not fall within the competence of personnel management services. The security of the organization is most often the responsibility of the enterprise security service. In the understanding of the management of the enterprise, security is not the protection of the organization from threats and risks from a legal point of view, but only the protection of the enterprise from the physical aggression of the criminal warehouse of persons. The possibility of using one's official position for personal purposes, for example, by an employee holding a key position in the company, is not taken into account. Often not taken into account is such a risk that can bring a lot of financial and time costs, such as incomplete or poor-quality performance of official duties, theft, dissemination of confidential official information, trade secrets, and so on.

IN modern conditions When the practice of unfair competition is widespread, such a negligent attitude of management to protect the enterprise from risks and threats posed by the main resource and wealth of the organization - already working "fixed" personnel, turns into millions of losses, and often - bankruptcy.

In organizations, often, for this there is special service, which comes into contact with personnel, mainly when it is necessary to "break through the bases" of key employees being hired, or suppress, for example, fights between employees during a corporate holiday, as well as protect the building from the penetration of outsiders, and so on. Basically, the tasks of “protecting” the company lie, as it were, not inside, but outside it, starting with physical protection from unwanted persons and ending with ingenious measures to prevent threats from criminals or unscrupulous competitors. For this, not an internal division of the organization is often used, but an external, often completely third-party security company that performs its duties only within the strictly limited framework of a contract for the provision of services. The performance of non-standard security functions against threats posed by the company's own personnel remains on the "conscience" of its management. And each time in each new specific case, the enterprise is faced with the need to find means for a possible solution to the problem that has arisen and neutralize its consequences. Often such a "catching up" policy turns into the liquidation of the enterprise.

In reality, in addition to external threats to the company's security, there are also internal threats arising from its main resource - personnel. We are talking not only about someone's negligence or incompetence, but also about quite deliberate theft, sabotage, bribery, disclosure of trade secrets and other dishonest actions of employees. Such actions actually cause more damage and harm to enterprises than, for example, industrial espionage.

Managers think about external threats more, prepare for them more carefully, and as a result, experience their consequences more easily. They deliberately perceive the environment as hostile, they do not expect mercy and handouts from it. The internal environment of the organization is our divisions, our people, whom we hired and whom we trust. And accordingly, internal threats become more unexpected for us and cause more moral and psychological damage.

Therefore, it is reasonable to create a management structure at the enterprise, which will be obliged to perform the functions of checking employees, protecting the enterprise from risks and threats posed by personnel. Modern enterprises, faced with the abuse of their legal rights by their employees, forgery of documents, disclosure of the company's trade secrets and other intentional and unintentional "sabotage", create their own security service within the framework of the personnel department or legal service, assign these functions to it and legally prescribe management procedures taking into account the specifics of the personnel. Practice shows that a preventive personnel policy in the field of protecting an organization from risks and threats associated with the action or, conversely, with inaction of personnel, turns out to be not only economically beneficial for an enterprise in the modern market, where information security is becoming increasingly important, but often from it depends on the very existence of the organization in principle.

The presented work is devoted to the topic "Protection of the enterprise from risks and threats posed by personnel". The problem of this study has relevance in the modern world. This is evidenced by the frequent study of the issues raised: personnel control, assessment of the level of personnel loyalty, as well as the selection and hiring of reliable personnel. This topic is studied at the junction of several interrelated disciplines at once. These are psychology, management and sociology.

Many works have been devoted to research questions. These include the works of such famous people as Shipilova O., in the field of personnel loyalty, Borodina I.A., in the field of corporate security, Chumarina I.G. - Director of the Agency for Research and Prevention of Fraud and Nezhdanov I.Yu. There are also many works by foreign authors: Michael Levy, Barton A. Weitz.

Further attention to the issue of "Protection of the enterprise from risks and threats posed by personnel" is necessary in order to more deeply and substantiate the resolution of particular topical problems of the subject of this study. This is the selection of reliable personnel, support of personnel and painless dismissal of personnel, both for the company and for the employee.

The relevance of this work is due, on the one hand, to the great interest in this topic in the modern world, on the other hand, its insufficient development. Consideration of issues related to the subject of protecting the enterprise from risks and threats is of both theoretical and practical significance. The results can be used to develop a methodology for protecting the enterprise from risks and threats posed by personnel.

Personnel security is the dominant element of the economic security of the enterprise, due to the fact that employees are the primary element of any organization. Therefore, the personnel is the object of this study.

At the same time, the subject of the study is the system of protecting the enterprise from risks and threats posed by personnel. The aim of the work is to study the topic "Protection of the enterprise from risks and threats posed by personnel" from the point of view of the latest domestic and foreign research, as well as the development of management methods for protecting the enterprise from risks and threats posed by personnel.

In order to achieve this goal, I have set the following tasks:

a) study the theoretical aspects and identify the nature of the risks and threats posed by personnel;

b) show that ensuring internal security should be a constant, purposeful and clearly understood component personnel policy enterprises;

c) outline possible measures to protect the enterprise from risks and threats posed by personnel.

The work has a traditional structure and includes an introduction, the main part, consisting of 4 chapters, a conclusion and a bibliographic list.

The introduction substantiates the relevance of the choice of topic, sets the goal and objectives of the study, characterizes the research methods and sources of information.

Chapter one deals with general questions. It defines the basic concepts, describes the theoretical aspects and the nature of the risks and threats posed by personnel.

The second chapter considers the consulting company NOU “Baikal Institute of Training”, gives its characteristics, organizational structure, considers potentially outgoing threats from personnel.

Chapter three is of a practical nature, and on the basis of individual data, an adequate system of legal regulation is being developed, which will allow the enterprise to experience fewer threats and incur fewer losses from the actions of personnel.

The fourth chapter describes the safety and environmental friendliness of the project.

The sources of information for writing the work were basic educational literature, theoretical works of thinkers in the field under consideration, articles and reviews in specialized and periodicals devoted to the topic "Enterprise Security", reference literature, and other relevant sources of information.

1 Risks and threats related to personnel

Own staff, which is the primary component of any company, is often capable of causing harm hundreds of times greater than unscrupulous competitors or intruders. An unscrupulous employee, being in a team, ruins and destroys the company from the inside, and no one will ever suspect him of this. It is not at all necessary for him to be a person who wants the bankruptcy of the enterprise or harming the leader. He can simply act “according to the situation”, or even be confident in the correctness of his actions, absolutely not repenting of them.

A distinction should be made between the concepts of risks and threats. Let's fix the concepts: "risk" is the possibility of danger, failure. The company takes risks by keeping in its staff an employee who performs his duties in bad faith. "Threat" is a potential danger. As threats, we can consider the threat of theft of confidential information (material or financial resources), corporate fraud, loss of customers, etc. The list of threats is quite varied. Deliberate harm to employees poses a greater threat to the security of the company than, for example, dishonest performance of duties.

Description of the risks associated with the work of personnel

1.1.1 Unfair performance of duties due to the employee's lack of adaptation

The unfair performance by the employee of his duties occupies one of the first places among the problems associated with personnel. After all, the work of the organization as a whole depends on how a single employee works.

In the face of fierce competition, it is very important that the service offered by the company is higher than that of other companies. Therefore, how the staff works is very important. Does he perform his duties correctly, does he know what his functions are. Otherwise, the risk of losing customers increases.

Incorrectly organized management procedures, in the first place, are the cause of dishonest performance by the employee of his professional duties. The adaptation of employees in the company is the first management procedure that we will consider.

The main reason for non-fulfillment or incorrect fulfillment by an employee of his duties is the following aspect: often no one deals with a newcomer, in best case it is provided to colleagues and offered to familiarize themselves with job descriptions. Most companies don't even have basic onboarding programs. However, the impression of the first days in a new place usually leaves a deep mark and can have a negative impact on the motivation and attitude towards the team, and most importantly, the duties of the employee.

It is precisely because of the lack of an adaptation system that an employee may experience a feeling of alienation and take a negative position towards the company right from the first day of work.

A new employee, as a rule, lacks certain professional knowledge. It is in order to replenish this knowledge and remove the difficulties of the initial period that technology is needed, a system for training a new employee, covering all areas of adaptation: organizational, professional and socio-psychological.

Organizational adaptation, in our opinion, is the acceptance by a new employee of his status in the company, understanding of its structure and existing management mechanisms.

For beginners, at best, local regulations, instructions, structural diagrams are offered for study. However, practice shows that usually acquaintance with such documents is of a formal nature, since it is difficult to absorb a large amount of information in a short time, put it into practice and evaluate the importance of certain provisions.

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Introduction

3.1 Assessment of environmental factors

3.3 Assessing the probability of risk

3.6 Method of verbal functions

Introduction

In the conditions of formation market economy in our country, planning for an enterprise's need for personnel is a rather complicated type of forecast, because it requires taking into account: the level of education, professional skills and abilities of the personnel that the enterprise needs.

In the system of measures to implement the economic reform, special importance is attached to raising the level of work with personnel, putting this work on a solid scientific foundation, and using the experience accumulated over many years of domestic and foreign experience.

Personnel planning is defined as “the process of ensuring that an organization has the right number of qualified personnel hired in the right positions at the right time”. According to another definition, personnel planning is “a system for the selection of qualified personnel, using two types of sources - internal (employees available in the organization) and external (found or attracted from the external environment), which aims to meet the needs of the organization in the required number of specialists in specific time frame".

Personnel planning as one of the important functions of personnel management consists in the quantitative, qualitative, temporal and spatial determination of the need for personnel necessary to achieve the goals of the organization. Personnel planning is based on the development strategy of the organization, its personnel policy. The function of workforce planning is becoming increasingly important in supporting the strategy of the organization, since an accurate consideration of future needs allows a clear orientation in the development of plans for training and work with the reserve. However, it should be noted that the planned economic growth programs of the organization are increasingly not provided with appropriate management personnel, they pay more attention to financing and investment issues.

The relevance of the topic is related to the peculiarities of the Russian mentality, since in our country, if accurate planning is not carried out in the activities of personnel management in accordance with its needs, then this activity is less effective. Only when proper organization personnel records and control of the results of work of employees can be achieved high performance and quality of work, and as a result of a competitive company.

1. Concept personnel risk. Types of personnel risk, their classification

personnel risk probability threat

In practice modern enterprises in order to streamline business processes related to personnel, a personnel management system is formed. An important component of an effectively functioning personnel management system of an organization is the mechanism for managing personnel risks.

Personnel risk - a situation that reflects the danger of an undesirable development of events that directly or indirectly affect the functioning and development of the organization, personnel, society as a whole and the occurrence of which is associated with an objectively existing uncertainty due to a number of reasons: inefficiency of the personnel management system; behavior, action (inaction) of the personnel; external environment of the organization.

Based on the above definition, subjective and objective personnel risks can be distinguished. Objective personnel risks take place regardless of the actions and against the will of the organization's personnel. In the case of subjective personnel risks, the occurrence of any adverse events depends on the actions of a particular employee of the enterprise. Personnel risks occupy an important place in the system of entrepreneurial risks, which is due to a number of their features. First, the direct relationship between the level of personnel risk and the rate of return is not obvious, that is, an increase in the level of personnel risk does not lead to the maximization of the profit function of the enterprise. Secondly, the source or object of personnel risks is the personnel of the organization or an individual employee. Thirdly, the impossibility of fully transferring personnel risks to other market participants.

An approach to the classification of personnel risks has been developed, which reflects the socio-economic essence of personnel risks and allows planning and organizing the process of managing them on a systematic basis.

In modern theory and practice, there is no consistency in solving the issues of classification of personnel risks. At the same time, the reliability of ensuring the security of an organization is directly related to the completeness of ideas about personnel risks, which, in turn, requires an exhaustive, systematically presented classification of personnel risks. The classification of personnel risks, which involves their division into groups according to certain criteria, makes it possible to assess the place of each risk in the overall system and creates potential opportunities for choosing the most effective appropriate methods and risk management techniques.

Based on the foregoing, a classification of personnel risks is proposed in the form of a table.

Table 1. Classification of personnel risks (HR)

By area of ​​localization
Internal risks	External risks
By source of risk
Personnel risks	Risks of the personnel management system
By object of risk
Employee risks	Organizational risks	State risks
According to the systematic manifestation
Systematic risks	Unsystematic risks
By type of activity of the organization
Risks production activities	Risks in financial activities	Risks in business activities	Risks in innovation activity	Risks in management, etc.
	According to the results of activities
Pure risks	Speculative risks
	Possible extent of damage
Local		Significant	Global (strategic)
	According to the degree of regularity of potential manifestation
One-time (random) risks	Regular risks	Permanent risks
	According to the degree of sensitivity to the CI of various groups of stakeholders
Acceptable Risks	Acceptable Risks	Unacceptable Risks
	According to the degree of legitimacy
Justified risks	Unjustified risks
	For reasons of occurrence
Accidental (unintentional) risks	Non-random (targeted risks)

2. Analysis of problems of personnel risks

Risk analysis begins with a qualitative analysis. Quantitative methods rely on mathematical predefined strict dependencies and rules. So, for example, to the main factors influencing the occurrence of personnel risks, M.Yu. Khromov attributes: the qualification asymmetry of people who want to get a job, professional imbalance of supply and demand in the labor market, blurred moral and value attitudes of individual workers, actions by criminal elements; low level of qualification of workers, - low level and quality of life of people. Then he divides into internal and external factors, random and non-random. The same situation is observed in the classification of the personnel management system. In such a presentation, it is difficult for the practitioners of the organization to navigate risk management, since they are unaddressed and causeless. An analysis of the works on risk management by domestic and foreign authors allows us to conclude that by now, risk management activities have been well structured, which includes the following main areas: qualitative analysis risk, its identification, quantitative risk assessment, choice of risk management method and tool, risk prevention and control, risk financing, evaluation of results. The risks of personnel management in an organization can be observed already during the selection of employees of the organization. The risk of creating a negative image may arise already at the stage of the search for a candidate, for example, due to illiterate content and the form of the announcement of vacant position.

Theory and practice have developed various risk management methods: risk avoidance or evasion, risk dissipation, risk diversification, risk insurance, risk absorption, transfer (transfer) of risks to another economic entity, risk limiting.

The risk management process includes: risk management planning; diagnostics of risks, assessment and ranking of risks, selection of measures and analysis of effectiveness, monitoring of activities at all stages. In the process of risk management, one should be guided by the following principles: scale, minimization (limiting, hedging and insurance), adequate response, reasonable risk acceptance. The integration of risk management into the overall management process is expressed, in particular, in the fact that almost all departments of the company are involved in risk management: representatives of functional departments are involved in the identification and analysis of risks as experts, they are also involved in the development of measures to manage their risks and actually management of these risks, monitoring of their level, implementation of measures to prevent the onset and eliminate the consequences of risk events. At the same time, the risk management service retains the functions of coordination and control, as well as the consolidation and analysis of information on risk events and the development of the necessary corrective actions based on the data received. Thus, it is necessary to include sections of the analysis of personnel risks and risks in personnel management in the system in the organization's in-house training programs. personnel management organizations.

3. Methodology for the analysis of personnel risks and their assessment

For the purposes of this chapter, the target audience will be understood as Russian companies who use information Technology(IT) for the capitalization of production, as well as organizations for which the information war is one of the mechanisms to remain competitive in the international market.

Let's consider what properties the organization's risk analysis and assessment methodology should have:

Ease of understanding by management and employees;

Low labor costs for implementation and operation;

Flexibility to modify the implementation as the organization grows or shrinks;

Possibility of continuous monitoring;

Possibility of integration into corporate system information security (IS) based on the process approach;

Satisfaction with the requirements of international standards;

Accounting for the human factor;

Fault tolerance.

A risk-based approach is at the heart of modern corporate governance. Risk assessment allows you to make informed decisions, choosing the right protection mechanisms and prioritizing. Risk assessment helps avoid many crises. After the crisis, those who managed risks correctly remain. Considering small and medium-sized organizations on Russian market, it is worth noting their diversity associated with a large number of different cultures and economic conditions and, accordingly, needs. Among the existing products for risk analysis for almost any organization, it is possible to find a product with a number of advantages and benefits, but a universal product does not exist today.

The methodology for analyzing personnel risks should take into account the following aspects:

Types of personnel risks;

Probability and level of personnel risks;

Potential losses from the implementation of personnel risks;

Measures to manage personnel risks;

HR risk management budget;

Sources of financing for measures to manage personnel risks;

Deadlines and persons responsible for the implementation of measures to manage personnel risks.

The proposed methodology for analyzing personnel risks in working with the personnel of an organization has a distinctive feature of the transformation of the personnel risk management system itself, its focus on prevention and prevention of personnel risks (Figure 2).

Figure 2. The logic diagram of the personnel risk analysis methodology

The central point of the developed methodology is the analysis and assessment of personnel risks, based on the method of expert assessment.

To assess personnel risks, it is proposed to use two criteria:

1) the result (the magnitude of the consequences) from the manifestation of the risk;

2) the probability of risk manifestation.

In order to manage risks, they must first be identified, i.e. assessed and measured. Risk analysis, i.e. assessment of the degree of risks, ensures their minimization and includes an assessment of the impact of environmental factors, an assessment of the likelihood of threats, an assessment of the economic damage from the implementation of threats. Risk assessment using the apparatus of probability theory is quite laborious. Here are some simple techniques used in practice.

3.1 Assessment of environmental factors

The assessment of environmental factors is based on taking into account two components: the strength of the impact of the factor in the present and the likelihood of an increase in this impact in the near future. In this case good results gives the use of the J. Wilson method (table 1).

Table 1 . Wilson matrix

3.2 Assessing the probability of occurrence of threats

The assessment of the probability of manifestation of threats is based on the definition of the frequency of their implementation. Here the risk ranking method is used, i.e. selection of "weight" coefficients (table 2).

3.3 Assessing the probability of risk

When assessing the probability of risk, the Harrington matrix is ​​used (Table 3).

Table 3. Harrington Verbal Numerical Scale

Personnel risk change interval	Personnel risk level	Description of personnel risk
1.0/0.8 Average score-0.9	Critical (very high)	The probability of manifestation of personnel risk is maximum; the consequences of personnel risk are very high
0.8/0.63 Average score - 0.71		The probability of manifestation of personnel risk is high; the consequences of personnel risk are significant
0.63/0.37 Average score - 0.5		The probability of manifestation of personnel risk is average; consequences of personnel risk are insignificant
0.37/0.2 Average score - 0.28		The probability of manifestation of personnel risk is low; the consequences of personnel risk are small
0.2/0 Average rating - 0.1	Minimal (very low)	Manifestation of personnel risk is unlikely; the consequences of personnel risk are minimal

Possible economic damage (risk value) is determined by the product of the damage from the implementation of a specific threat, including lost profits, and the probability of this threat. As A. Artemiev noted, both employers and employees have been managing risks to the life and health of workers associated with production activities for as long as the concept of “labor protection” exists. Only this assessment was intuitive, unconscious. Moreover, the irresponsible slogan about the “priority of the life and health of workers” over the tasks of production activity was and still remains in use. the possibility of the existence of production activities without any risk to life and health is allowed. The axioms of life safety unanimously state that this is impossible. Therefore, there are labor protection services and risk management. It is sometimes said that the term "risk management" is a misnomer, since it only makes sense to reduce risk. Unfortunately, it is not. In some cases, the employer may deliberately increase the acceptable level of risk for employees, for example, in the event of emergency response, in the performance of urgent, but very profitable orders, or, abandoning some earlier established requirements labor protection, if after risk assessment it turns out that these restrictions are associated with negligible risks (but still - risks). How does unconscious (implicit) risk assessment differ from risk assessment within the framework of a modern labor protection management system? Firstly, risk assessment should not be a spontaneous (subconscious) process, but the result of a conscious, purposeful activity in which both the employee and the employer should be interested. Secondly, risk assessment should be quantitative, since the magnitude of the risk is directly related to the size wages(risk premiums) and risk mitigation activities should also be quantified as they are costly. Thirdly, risk assessment should be objective, based on principles, methods, approaches, etc. recognized by both the employer and the employee. This means that the approach to risk assessment in the workplace should be simple, understandable, including ordinary employees. Therefore, the assessment methodology occupational risk injury at work or occupational disease(hereinafter - occupational risk) must meet the following requirements: 1) the methodology must provide risk assessment data in a quantitative form (in this case, various quantitative scales can be used: interval, rank, ratios, etc.); 2) the methodology should be simple and clear, i.e., ensure the possibility of its application by representatives of the junior management of enterprises (foreman, foreman, site manager, foreman), i.e. those managers who actually manage risks; 3) the methodology must satisfy the requirement of reproducibility of the estimates obtained with a given accuracy (for example, in the event of labor disputes, when confirming compliance, as well as when assessing the effectiveness of the measures taken to reduce risks).

3.4 Quantifying probabilities and risks

Risk assessment makes it possible to finance risks on the basis of insurance, which implies the possibility of their quantitative assessment. To assess the risk, it is necessary to know the expected amount of damage and the probability of its occurrence or the frequency of damage.

The probability, or frequency, of damage. It is estimated most often on the basis of statistical data on the number of damage cases per set of objects exposed to this risk.

Expected value of damage E(x).

If X1 and X2 are two possible outcomes having, respectively, probabilities P1 and P2 , then

E(X)=P1 (X1)+P2 (X2)

Direct risk assessment methods involve identifying potential hazards, assessing the likelihood of each hazard occurring in different options Р*i and the estimated severity C*i of the consequences of each i-th option:

where R* is the risk of damage associated with the possible implementation of the i-th option of one of the identified hazards. Such calculations should be made for each of the identified hazards at each workplace.

The maximum amount of damage is determined for a specific insured in order to establish the maximum possible amount of monetary claims against the insurer in the event of an insured event. Indicators of deviations of actual results from expected ones. The probabilistic nature of the insured events determines the possibility of deviation of the actual statistics of losses from the expected one. The scatter or degree of variability in possible outcomes is measured in terms of variance, standard deviation, and variation. The relationship between frequency and magnitude of damage may be different for different risks. The most common are two types of their combination. The first type is common to most risk situations, is characterized by a relatively high frequency and small damages. These are the risks of loss or destruction of property, occupational injury and so on. The second type combines low frequency and significant damage. An example is aviation and maritime disasters. Their probability is not significant, but if these events occur, they lead to very large damages. Risks as a distribution of damage probabilities can be transferred between business entities.

For this purpose, the entrepreneur has at his disposal Various types contracts, including insurance contracts. The transfer of risk to insurance is called risk transfer. The problem lies not only in the fact that such rare (from the point of view of statistics) events as an accident at work (at the workplace) is almost impossible to estimate the probability of their occurrence with acceptable accuracy. In addition, it is necessary to calculate the probability of occurrence of one of the options for the implementation of each hazard. At the same time, it is possible to estimate the direct material damage for the employer and for the employee as a result of a certain outcome quite accurately. For example, when a painter works on scaffolding, it is possible that he will fall. With what probability? And with what probability, as a result of a fall, will he dislocate his arm (small damage), and with what probability will he break his leg (large damage)? What is the probability that a worker will die as a result of a fall? In this case, the probabilities will change from floor to floor.

3.5 Risk assessment method based on the probability of damage matrix

The possibility of direct quantitative risk assessment without directly calculating the probabilities of events is implemented in the well-known risk assessment method based on the "probability-damage" matrix.

The essence of the method lies in the fact that the expert for each situation determines the rank of probability e? occurrence (for example: low probability, medium probability, high probability) and the potential damage corresponding to this situation (for example: small, medium, large).

At the intersection of the corresponding column and row, we find the desired conditional risk value. At the same time, the magnitude of the risk can also be presented in quantitative terms (Table 4).

Table 4. Matrix "Probability - damage"

This method is the most commonly used in developed countries due to its simplicity. In addition, since risk assessment in the workplace is the employer's legal responsibility in most developed countries, this simple method allows the employer to meet the government's occupational health and safety regulations at the lowest cost. The obvious disadvantage of this method is its absolute subjectivity. It is clear that different experts will evaluate the same situation differently, based on personal knowledge, experience, feelings, even personal mood. It is not a fact that the same expert some time later can assess the same risk in the same workplace in a different way.

3.6 Method of verbal functions

This approach makes it possible to practically eliminate subjectivity in assessing the probabilities of events and their consequences, but it requires very careful preliminary work and highly qualified experts who make up verbal descriptions of various situations. The essence of this approach lies in the fact that each quantitative value of the probability of an event is associated with a verbal description of a well-defined situation (Table 5). In this case, each time when describing a particular probability, it is necessary to be guided by the rules:

1. Any situation that does not match this description - matches another description.

2. No real or virtual situation can match two or more descriptions at the same time.

3. The formulation of a certain condition for the occurrence of a hazardous situation should be associated with a certain protective measure that should be provided for the complete elimination of this condition.

4. When implementing the protective measure associated with the description element (as a result of eliminating one of the conditions for the occurrence of the event), the situation moves to a higher level (the probability of the occurrence of the event decreases).

IN this case improvement of the design (protective properties) of the equipment (from “eliminating the possibility of exposure to the OPF on the worker” with the existing possibility of its manifestation to the complete “elimination of the possibility of the manifestation of the OPF” in the environment) reduces the likelihood of exposure from 0.2 to 0.1.

It is clear that the same situation can lead to different outcomes: from minor injury to death (the event "no accident" is not taken into account). In order not to get confused in the abundance of possible options, you can use the approach used in assessing the risks associated with the operation of hazardous production facilities, i.e. take into account only two outcomes: the most probable and the most unfavorable. Risks are assessed for each outcome. More risk is taken into account. If different safeguards are to be applied to mitigate both risks, then both risks must be considered.

Table 5

Probability notation	Probability	Description of the condition for the occurrence of the event is extremely small
Extremely small		1. Applied constructive measures, excluding the possibility of manifestation of a hazardous production factor (OPF); 2. Theoretically, the manifestation of BPF is possible as a result of an extremely unlikely accident or equipment breakdown; 3. There is no information about the relevant accidents or breakdowns and related accidents in the organization itself or in other organizations
Very small		1. The possibility of manifestation of the OPF is not excluded, but constructive measures have been taken to exclude the possibility of the impact of the OPF on the employee, including the intent of the employee himself; 2. Other organizations are known to have had related accidents.

A distinctive feature of the proposed approach lies in its pronounced proactivity (focus on mastering the situation in order to achieve the goal). In this case, the risk is assessed without assessing the frequency of the expected event. The main essence of the approach is as follows: if the exclusion of an unfavorable outcome is not guaranteed, then this outcome will come sooner or later, but it will certainly come. The task is only to estimate the amount of potential damage from outcomes that are not completely excluded. The estimated probability of an event occurring is actually the reciprocal of the amount of time that can be scheduled for taking risk management measures.

Of course, the resulting score is not a "risk" exactly as defined. Moreover, it can be argued that this estimate will be deliberately overestimated, and the complete elimination of risk can be achieved (in accordance with the axioms of the BDZ) only as a result of eliminating the source of risk.

4. Personnel risks on the example of an oil company. Development of measures to minimize risks

This chapter is devoted to the personnel risks of oil companies, the concepts of personnel risk, its types, and the consequences associated with it are considered. Personnel risks are the probabilities of causing material or moral damage to an enterprise in the process of making and implementing personnel decisions. And the situation that has developed in the domestic labor market of the oil and gas industry is such that the task of providing business with the necessary human resources in the context of the current imbalance in the labor market is becoming one of the highest priorities for any company. Therefore, activities related to personnel should be given more precise and continuous attention.

The chapter highlights the main types of risks for most oil companies in Russia and presents their minimization.

The oil industry is a perfect example of a high-risk business. The main personnel risks that can be attributed to the industry include: the occurrence of accidents and emergencies at the fields, information security and protection of trade secrets, staff turnover and a lack of qualified resources, and a decrease in employee motivation. When examining the labor market in the oil and gas sector of Russia, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the specifics of the oil and gas industry is the presence of a fairly large number of single-industry towns that are built around giant oil and gas fields, primarily in Western Siberia. In this regard, when attracting young workers, a number of additional problems arise in terms of staff mobility, career and financial expectations, and the psychological factor.

The situation that has developed in the domestic labor market is such that the task of providing business with the necessary human resources in the context of the current imbalance in the labor market is becoming one of the highest priorities for any company.

At the same time, the problem of shortage of personnel and ever-increasing competition for highly qualified personnel goes beyond individual industries or regions.

However, despite the fact that the demand for highly qualified personnel is constantly growing in the industry, the requirements for the level of professionalism of oilmen are becoming more stringent.

The rate of change in the external environment has increased so much that corporations can no longer afford not to change: they are looking for the most effective management approaches, revising the organizational structure, expanding the scope of activities, improving the system of training specialists. However, there are barriers to change, which mainly include:

Resistance from employees (from simple performers to top managers);

Lack of a corporate culture that supports change;

Poor communication between employees;

Failure to complete assigned tasks;

Failure to strategize.

For many oil companies in Russia, the following types of personnel risks can be distinguished, first of all, the main ones include the risk of a shortage of personnel, namely:

1. Lack of qualified resources;

2. The risk of transfer of skilled workers to other companies, or the most "fashionable" sectors, in particular in the field of renewable energy production.

3. Risk of indispensability of more mature personnel. Since many key engineers, senior managers and other professionals are mostly reaching retirement age, there may be a risk in the future that there will not be enough young professionals in the organization to replace and fill their places. And also, when attracting young workers, a number of additional problems arise in terms of staff mobility, career and financial expectations, and the psychological factor.

4. It should also be noted the risk associated with an incorrect assessment of the personal and professional qualities of a job candidate, i.e. qualification and educational risk. In this regard, there is a possibility of financial, temporary losses.

5. It is necessary to highlight the risk of reducing employee motivation, which is associated with a drop in his productivity, this may affect the results of performance functional duties, including a negative impact on employees interacting next to such an employee. A greater degree of risk is associated if motivation loses key employee companies, indirect losses from the realization of such a risk can increase many times over.

6. Many companies prioritize the development of research and development, and they invest heavily in this, then the risk of information security and the protection of trade secrets is associated with this.

7. Undoubtedly, there is another personnel risk associated with the remoteness of the fields, the risk of the employee adapting to difficult environmental conditions, and the lack of personnel to work on a rotational basis. All this is connected with the negative factors of the Far North: a long period of low temperatures, daily fluctuations in atmospheric pressure, strong winds, a deficit of ultraviolet rays, strong winds, water features, radiation background and much more, all this is characterized by a significant stress on the main body systems: cardio-respiratory , endocrine, vegetative, nervous.

8. Since the main oil resources are concentrated in the West Siberian oil and gas province, where, as noted above, there are difficult natural and climatic conditions and work in areas that have not been fully explored, therefore, for personnel working in the fields, there is a risk of accidents and emergencies during operating conditions, (risk to the health and safety of personnel), which do not allow easy exit from the danger zone, because this staff located in close proximity to the production area.

Before drawing up recommendations for minimizing risks, it is necessary to highlight which personnel risks can most significantly affect the Company's activities. Thus, Table 6 presents an analysis of risks using expert assessment and identifies the most significant ones.

Table 6. Collection of expert assessments for personnel risks of oil companies in Russia

Name of risk					Average value
Lack of qualified resources
Staff turnover
Decreased employee motivation
Information security and trade secret protection
Adaptation of the worker to difficult environmental conditions
The occurrence of accidents and emergencies

Through expert evaluation, it was found that the most critical risk associated with personnel is the occurrence of accidents and emergencies. The second most important is the lack of qualified personnel, which can lead to various losses, and lead to other, for example, operational risks. From the presented risks, it is possible to identify a relationship, for example, a decrease in employee motivation can lead to staff turnover in other companies, as a result, there is a risk of either a shortage of qualified personnel, or even the absence of the right candidate. Dissatisfied staff, after leaving the company, can contribute to the disclosure of trade secrets.

Minimization of personnel risks, perhaps, should be started with those personnel risks that have the greatest impact on the company's activities.

1. From Table 6, the first risk is associated with personnel working at the fields, there is a risk of accidents and emergencies under the condition of operation, (risk to the health and safety of personnel), in order to avoid serious negative results, you need to:

o careful selection of candidates who know, First of all, everything theoretical basis specialties;

o professional training and training;

o help of mentors to young professionals;

o constant monitoring of the state of technological installations, a program for updating equipment;

o Increasing the level of automation of process control so that personnel are at a minimum in close proximity to the production area;

o maintain archives of equipment operation, create reports.

2. The second equally important and possible personnel risk is the lack of qualified resources. This risk is associated not only with the transfer of skilled workers to other companies, or the most “fashionable” sectors, in particular to the production of renewable energy sources, but also to the fact that many personnel of companies will soon reach retirement age, in connection with which will leave their jobs. To be affected by this risk, you need:

o because many companies cooperate with many educational institutions, then it is worth regularly holding events aimed at popularizing the professions and specialties of the oil and gas complex. To do this, conduct thematic classes in the areas of activity of companies, organize study tours at production facilities.

o maintaining targeted training;

o annual scientific and technical conference young scientists and specialists, which makes it possible to involve young personnel in the improvement of technological processes, the introduction of new technologies, and the increase in production efficiency;

o maintaining an effective system of remuneration and motivation of personnel;

o formation of a personnel reserve;

o professional retraining and training.

3. Staff turnover is the third of the analyzed risks. To reduce it, the following minimization options are proposed:

o maintaining corporate culture and friendly team who clearly understands the purpose and strategy of companies;

o conducting surveys of satisfaction with their work and the working conditions of employees, so it will be possible to find out what does not satisfy employees, which in the future will help to avoid dismissal of personnel of their own free will;

o identifying the reasons for the dismissal of each employee and maintaining statistics on these reasons, and as a result, the formation of a new system for selecting and adapting employees. For an effective selection and evaluation system, it is necessary to have: job descriptions, regulations on structural units, clear criteria for the selection and evaluation of candidates, valid and reliable methods for evaluating candidates, qualified selection and evaluation specialists;

o maintaining the company's image.

4. The next considered risk is the adaptation of personnel in difficult environmental conditions, in particular, natural and climatic factors and the lack of infrastructure at remote fields. It is unrealistic to influence the environment, namely, natural and climatic conditions. But still, you should consider some options to reduce this risk:

o an important factor influencing the course of adaptation is the possibility, subjectively perceived by people, of realizing their needs (“social expectations”), taking into account the time of their realization.

o the wide geography of recruiting places for personnel, for example, shift teams, correlates with the constant improvement of the organizational infrastructure. Thus, the transport system should provide for the delivery of personnel to the base cities and to the shift by road, rail and air transport.

o if we consider the shift method as the most popular for working in remote fields, then shift camps should be provided necessary inventory and equipment, manned by service personnel.

o solution at the official level of the issue of special training of direct line managers of shift teams: foremen, heads of sections and shops.

5. Of the analyzed risks, the risk of a decrease in employee motivation for companies is in the penultimate place. Due to the fact that companies attach great importance to this. To attract and retain highly qualified specialists and ensure their interest in the labor process, the company uses an effective system of remuneration and staff motivation. The material interest of company employees is based on the system of remuneration with annual indexation, the system of annual and quarterly bonuses for the achievement of production and technical and economic indicators, as well as on the methods of encouragement for rationalization work and innovative activity, development of new technological processes. However, the risk still exists, so it cannot be neglected. The most effective risk minimization option is to regularly hold various professional skill competitions, where employees will be awarded organizational, municipal, district and regional, departmental, and state awards for winning. This system is one of the incentives to increase the efficiency and productivity of labor and promotes the active participation of employees in the production activities of companies.

6. The last risk considered is related to information security and protection of trade secrets. Minimization:

o disciplinary, material, administrative, criminal and civil liability for the disclosure and loss of information constituting a trade secret.

o organization of control over the handling of information by employees of companies. Permanent internal and external control. Legal, ethical, psychological and technical problems organization of control. The content of the regulation for monitoring the use by employees of the means of storing, processing and transmitting information.

Bibliography

1. Slobodskoy A.L. Risks in personnel management, - St. Petersburg, 2011

2. Mitrofanova A.E. Development of a methodology for managing personnel risks in the organization's personnel management system // Internet journal "Science Studies". 2013 No. 1.

3. Mitrofanova A.E. The concept of personnel risk management in work with the personnel of the organization // Competence. 2013. №3.

4. Mitrofanova A.E. Classification of personnel risks in the organization's personnel management system // Bulletin of the University (GUU). 2013. No. 7.

5. Gaifullina M.M., Sosina N.V. Economic Sciences. personnel risks. Minimization of personnel risks //Internet resource

6. Evtushenko E.V. Personnel Management. Tutorial. Ufa: publishing house "Oil and Gas Business", 2004. 173s

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Operational risks: causes

Operational risk occupies a special place among the risks of the company and is formulated as the risk of direct and indirect losses due to a distorted construction of business processes, inefficient procedures internal control, technological deviations, unauthorized actions of personnel and external influences. Since these risk-forming factors are partly in the sphere of influence of the company's management, there is a possibility of limited impact on the source of operational risk. For this reason, the main direction in managing the company's operational risks is their minimization, and not optimization, which is typical for other types of risk.

The dominant role in the occurrence of operational risk is played by the internal uncertainty of the company's functioning process, which is associated with the impossibility of accurately predicting human behavior in the process of work (human uncertainty), with the complexity of the technology used, the level of equipment reliability, the pace of technical re-equipment of production, etc. (technical uncertainty) and with the desire of people to educate social connections and groups, to behave in accordance with accepted mutual obligations, roles, traditions (social uncertainty).

The potential opportunity to increase the company's competitiveness lies in the area of ​​operational risk management by minimizing the risks associated with the technologies used, but primarily with its own personnel.

Management process labor resources of the company is continuous and should include: formulating goals, objectives and requirements for personnel, selection and hiring of employees, performance evaluation, development and training, personnel movement, rationalization of the system of labor motivation, remuneration and incentives. It is necessary to take into account the fact that the corresponding risks arise at each stage of the management process, but at the same time there are conditions for their minimization. For example, at the stage of developing requirements for personnel, job risks may arise as a discrepancy between a particular position and the types of activities, functions, goals, tasks, and technologies. The cause of job risk should be sought in the irrational distribution of functional responsibilities in the company's staffing table or in a distorted job description. To minimize this risk, a reasonable structure of positions, powers and responsibilities should be formed and used as a tool not to job description describing the main functions of the employee, and the description (model) of the workplace is the main document that allows, among other things, to assess whether the candidate for filling the vacant position is able to perform the relevant functions.

The company's management considers a person working at the same time as "economic" (subject to the need to perform assigned work for a certain material reward), "psychological" (psychologically ready to work), "technological" (subject to work operations) and "ethical" (subject to the requirements professional ethics). At the same time, in the organizational environment, a person working is both “acting” and “communicating”. The “acting” person manifests himself in interactions and counteractions, and the “communicating” person feels himself attached or alienated in the communicative space of the company. Interaction in the organizational environment and the involvement of a person in the organization create conditions for the development of cooperation, and alienation from the organization causes confrontation. The involvement or alienation of a person from the organization is largely the result of his socialization in the organizational environment, which can be of the nature of merging with the environment, cooperation or conflict. merger testifies to the employee's loyalty. Cooperation associated with the need for the employee to enter the organizational environment to participate in joint activities and achievement of personal goals, but is not a guarantee loyalty to the organization. Conflict deprives a person of the possibility of unconditional entry into the organizational environment.

The absence or low level of involvement of an employee in the organization is one of the main reasons for the emergence of personnel risks. Numerous studies of corporate relations indicate that no more than 30% of employees are absolutely loyal to their company, but about 50% of employees are ready for illegal behavior and are able to harm their company if this does not lead to negative consequences for them, and 20% seek in order to satisfy their needs, damage the company even at the risk to themselves. Management practice states that only 20% of unauthorized access to company confidential information is carried out from the outside, and computer networks are hacked equally by independent hackers and disgruntled company employees. About 80% of the material damage to companies is caused by their own personnel.

Operational risks arise from the actions or omissions of the company's personnel. There are three main reasons for their occurrence:

Insufficient (or excessive for individual representatives) level of human capital of personnel;

The human factor as a reflection of the psychological portrait of a person, inadequate to functional or official duties;

low level of involvement of a person in the organizational environment as a result of the lack (or unacceptability for all) of a single business culture companies.

Formation of the company's internal control system

The initial prerequisite for creating an effective mechanism for minimizing all types of operational risk is the formation of an internal control system ( personnel audit) a company that must provide:

· the unity of the personnel audit system within the organizational structure of the company;

continuous monitoring current activities company personnel;

prompt identification and assessment of risk factors;

availability of reliable, timely and complete information for assessing current activities and making decisions.

Due to the fact that the basis competitive advantage of any company are its key and unique competencies, reflecting the level of knowledge, skills and abilities of the staff, the system of internal personnel audit contributes to:

• real assessment market value companies;
• assessment of the place in the competitive environment and market prospects of the company;
• improvement of management methods;
• dynamic response to change competitive environment;

· timely release from the "personnel ballast" and the growth of labor productivity.

Building a company's personnel profile

The personnel audit system should be based on the personnel profile of the company, which, based on the understanding of the organization as a socio-technical system, should be built separately for production and management personnel companies (business units). In our opinion, the construction of a company's personnel profile should be based on the theories of a specific idea of ​​the object of motivation by D. McGregor (theories "X" and "Y") and V. Ouchi (theory "Z"). Following these theories, the personnel profile of any company, regardless of the field of activity, the adopted management system, the complexity of the organizational structure, etc. can be represented by three categories of personnel:

• category “X” (resistant workers), unable and unwilling to work;

Confirmation of this assumption is the situational leadership model of Harsey and Blanchard, which operates with the concept of “follower maturity” as the degree to which people have the ability and desire to perform the task set by the leader. The model identifies four stages of follower maturity:

M1 - the group is not able and unwilling to work due to its incompetence or self-doubt;

M2 - the group is not able, but willing to work, having the motivation to act, but not having the skills and abilities;

M3 - the group is able, but unwilling to work, because it is not attracted by the proposed work;

M4 - the group is able and willing to do what the leader suggests to it.

The personnel profile of a company can be considered as a set of four categories of personnel: personnel, personnel, personnel-resource, personnel-capital, in which it is easy to trace the correspondence to the stages of maturity of followers.

Due to the fact that the maturity of a person in a group is stable, slowly changing under the influence of investment in human capital characteristic, it can be argued that:

• category "X" corresponds to group M1 (personnel);
• category "Y" corresponds to groups M2 and M3 (personnel and personnel-resource);
• category "Z" corresponds to the group M4 (personnel-capital).

A rational personnel profile of the company's personnel should reflect sufficient labor functions the level of personnel qualification and a high degree of motivation for productive work while minimizing the number of employees who are unable and unwilling to work. These features of the group of workers of category "X" are not a stable characteristic, but are inherent in any employee during the period of production and social adaptation to the organizational environment. Qualification and educational risks in this case have the highest probability, but with an insignificant degree of impact due to the fact that new employee is under the supervision of a mentor and the level of official influence of the employee is extremely low. The main conditions for the successful adaptation of an employee should be to ensure that the employee merges with the group, to overcome the stereotype of avoidant motivation in his mind and to consolidate the patterns of incentive motivation.

basis labor collective companies are made up of category “Y” employees - these are, as a rule, middle-aged people who actively form their human capital, knowledge and skills. The level of probability and degree of impact of qualification and educational risks in this group have average values.

It is generally accepted that highly qualified workers and senior management personnel should be classified as category “Z” employees who are able and willing to work, and the number of such employees is limited by the list of existing positions in the company's staffing table. Due to high qualifications, the probability of risk in this group is relatively small, but the degree of impact is extremely high. In our opinion, employees of this category are unevenly placed in all levels of the company's management without taking into account fixing in the organizational structure of management. These are people with incentive motivation, mentors and members of the personnel reserve at all levels. In addition, the content personnel work aimed at preventing personnel risks should contribute to professional and social development any employee, to instill in him an interest in work, the ability and desire to work. The principle "You know - it means warned" contributes to a positive perception of the technological discipline by the employee, which reduces the likelihood of risk situations. For this reason, the more employees of category “Z” are represented in all divisions of the company at all levels of management, the higher the competitiveness of the company's personnel as a whole.

The method of complex assessment of personnel "assessment center"

To draw up a personnel profile of the company's personnel, you can use a variety of widely tested methods of personnel assessment. Despite the fact that company management has access to numerous evidence-based methods of both initial and subsequent personnel assessments, in Russian practice only a limited part of them are used, primarily interviews and testing. It seems to us that when compiling a risk personnel profile of a company, one should focus on the method of comprehensive personnel assessment, called the “assessment center”. Psychological assessment in the selection and placement of personnel is relatively new form work with managerial personnel. A feature of this method is that it allows you to simultaneously solve such specific management tasks as identifying optimal candidates for leadership positions, development of recommendations for improving the leadership style, reducing the risk of losing valuable employees and motivational risks. According to foreign psychologists, the criterion validity of the assessment center reaches 0.75.

The structure of the assessment center includes three groups of methods:

methods of background diagnostics, i.e. diagnostics of common behavioral traits (personality and intelligence tests, tests of interests and achievements, etc.);

Methods focused on "past" behavior (interviews to study attitudes, analysis of bibliographic data, use of the results of observations of what is being evaluated by colleagues from the immediate environment, i.e. analysis of references - judgments of colleagues);

· Methods focused on actual behavior (observation of the behavior of those being assessed in specially created situations - business games, analysis of labor behavior in real activity).

The choice of specific diagnostic indicators, diagnostic methods, evaluation criteria is carried out on the basis of a professiogram (list of requirements) corresponding to a specific job position being evaluated in the organizational structure of the company's management. Professiograms form the system basis of the assessment center and are the basis for designing assessment procedures. The assessment center technology includes the following main methodological steps:

analysis of the requirements put forward by the position (profession) and the preparation of professiograms;

choice of method for making value judgments;

planning and conducting an assessment center;

· aggregation and interpretation of the received data.

The results of building a risk personnel profile of the company's personnel make it possible to develop a set of personnel strategies to prevent (minimize) risks. The validity of decisions made on personnel strategies is determined by the use of appropriate risk management methods and a personally oriented system of personnel motivation. Among the well-known methods of risk management, each of which may correspond to a specific personnel strategy, include: evasion (avoidance), transfer, separation, self-insurance, consolidation, localization, diversification, limitation, compensation, warning. In our opinion, in modern Russian conditions, company management should pay special attention to the development and implementation of strategies to prevent (minimize) demographic, qualification, educational and motivational personnel risks.

UDK 331.101

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF PERSONNEL RISKS IN ORGANIZATIONS

E.S. Nechaev

Existing classifications of risk factors in the human resource management system of organizations are considered. Approaches are considered and proposed that make it possible to predict the emergence and development of personnel risks based on systems of qualitative and quantitative indicators.

Keywords: personnel risk; risk factors; personnel profile; risk levels.

Ensuring the success of the functioning and security of any organization is due to the complex management impact on real and potential threats (risks) arising in unstable conditions of external and internal environment. The main element in the security system is the human factor, which can have a critical impact on the competitiveness of the organization.

The human resource management subsystem is objectively the key subsystem of the organization, since provides the techno-economic system with living intelligence, the driving (or destroying) force of business ideas and business processes. The human resource ultimately predetermines the risks of direct and indirect losses due to inefficient construction of business processes, decision-making and implementation procedures, technological deviations, unpredictable and unpredictable actions of personnel, inadequate response and adaptation in relation to environmental factors.

The need for conscious risk management in the field of human resource management (personnel risks) leads to the relevance of analyzing and systematizing the main risks, factors that determine the emergence and development of risk situations, as well as indicators that signal the emergence of a risk (pre-risk) situation. Personnel risks in the general sense can be considered as any action or inaction on the part of the staff (human resource).

Personnel risk is a complex risk, which predetermines the difference in approaches to risk classification, risk factors, risk consequences, risk management methods in the works of A.G. Badalova, E.S. Zharikova, L.V. Zubareva, Yu.G. Odegova, S.G. Radko, A.L. Slobodchikova, N.V. Samoukina, V. Fedoseeva, I.I. Tsvetkova, S.V. Shekshni and other authors.

In the practice of managing organizations, there are two polar points of view on personnel risks. According to the first point of view

HR risks are mostly random, temporary, partly cyclical in nature, due to minor errors, rare miscalculations in personnel management or deterioration in the overall external situation. Consequently, managers do not need to pay attention and allocate resources to managing personnel risks. The second point of view is based on the understanding that personnel risks are the result of insufficient effective work with human resources in the organization and the cause of all other types of risks in the organization. This position justifies the need to study and analyze the causes, factors, indicators of the occurrence of personnel risks in the organization, the development and application of management methods and minimization of personnel risks. Polar points of view are an idealized model, which in practice is represented by management activities, with varying degrees of activity aimed at predicting and minimizing personnel risks.

The classification of personnel risks is multifaceted and quite fully presented in publications devoted to personnel risks. The classifications reproduced below are necessary for the analysis of factors and indicators of personnel risks.

I.I. Tsvetkova, systematizing risks, identifies the following types of risks:

Job risk arising from inadequate staffing, improper job description that does not correspond to the types of activities, goals, objectives, functions, technology;

Qualification and educational risk arising from inadequate recruitment, selection, development of personnel in case of discrepancy between the education, profession, qualifications of the employee of the position held;

The risk of abuse and dishonesty arising from the imbalance of the various subsystems of the organization (corporate culture, management methodology and technology, the activities of security services);

The risk of non-acceptance by employees of innovations arising from violations key principles and organizational development procedures (goal setting, flexible planning, information, adaptation, training, stimulation and involvement of personnel).

Depending on the stage of human resource management technology, the following risks are often described in the literature.

1. Risks associated with the recruitment, selection and selection of personnel. These risks can eventually lead to qualification risks, risks of abuse and bad faith, risks of non-adoption of innovations, as well as economic risks with various consequences. An important factor to be considered in the selection is

dialogue and mutual coincidence of the expectations of the organization and the employee, the possibility of harmonious inclusion of the employee in the existing organizational culture. Uncomfortable culture for the employee leads to many negative consequences, leading to a variety of risks;

2. Risks associated with inadequate motivation and ineffective incentives. These risks can lead to disloyalty, abuse, dishonesty and rejection of innovations;

3. Risks associated with the dismissal of employees. These risks can lead to significant material and non-material damage in the absence of proper work with dismissed employees;

4. Risks associated with information security and trade secret protection. It is this group of risks that is most often considered and taken into account due to the perception of a clear threat to the organization's business. Publications note that about 80% of material damage to organizations is caused by their own personnel;

5. Risks caused by the presence in the organization of certain groups of employees included in the "risk groups" for observed or expected behavior. Most competitive successful organizations can minimize these risks as a result of adequate non-formalized selection, in which potential employees can show the full range of their strengths and weaknesses.

These risks can be divided into risks at the entry stage (recruitment, selection), risks at the activity stage (performance of labor functions and achievement of results) and risks at the exit stage (release).

The division of risks into quantitative and qualitative is fully consistent with the goal of human resource management of the organization, which is to provide the organization with personnel of the required quality in the planned quantity at the set time. Personnel risks of a quantitative nature can manifest themselves in the form of losses due to a discrepancy between the actual number of employees and the planned needs of the organization and include:

Risks of untimely replacement of vacancies (vacated or created);

Risks of untimely release of personnel in the presence of hidden unemployment in the divisions of the organization;

Staff turnover risks.

Personnel risks of a qualitative nature can manifest themselves in the form of losses due to a discrepancy between the actual characteristics of the organization's personnel and the requirements for it and include:

Risks of insufficient qualification of employees;

Risks of employees lacking the necessary professionally significant qualities;

Risks of employees lacking the necessary personal qualities;

Risks of inadequate motivation of employees;

Risks of disloyalty.

Considering the form of possible damage, it is necessary to state that personnel risks can cause property and non-property damage to organizations. Moreover, the latter can be very significant, because. associated with intangible assets, reputation and image, which are acquired by purposeful long-term efforts.

Identification, analysis and monitoring of risk factors allows targeted management of personnel risks.

Not every leader can agree with the fact that the key risk-forming factor in the management of an organization and in the field of human resource management is the competitiveness of the subject of management - the head of the organization, associated with personal and professional qualities. It is the leader who is the person who determines the mission of the organization, accepts the key strategic decisions performing decision-making, informational and interpersonal roles. The manager's competitiveness is influenced by qualifications, professional authority, leadership, management style, adequacy of role performance, professional motivation.

Intermediate factors - consequences of the key factor are the factors of competitiveness of the management system, which includes the following factors.

1. Competitiveness of the management team associated with the procedures and results of team building. Competitiveness is influenced by the goals facing the team and approaches to their implementation, the quality of team members, the degree of achievement of a synergistic effect;

2. The competitiveness of the organization associated with the presence and execution of the mission, strategy, mechanisms for its implementation;

3. Competitiveness of infrastructure, including workers

4. Competitiveness of the technology for making, supporting and implementing management decisions, including personnel ones;

5. The competitiveness of the corporate culture associated with its attractiveness for competitive personnel in the external and internal markets, business partners and others target audiences;

6. Competitiveness of results, expressed in the competitiveness of products, customer and staff satisfaction.

The competitiveness of the manager and the management system leads to the attraction and retention of the necessary competitive

personnel, compliance corporate culture and whose loyalty ensures the potential minimization of personnel risks. The presented ideal model is practically not achievable, since the balance between the organization and the staff is constantly in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Dynamic balance obliges the management of the organization and the HR department to monitor the situation in human resource management, including personnel risk management. A.G. Badalova considers the initial prerequisite for creating an effective mechanism for minimizing operational (personnel) risk to be the formation of an internal control system (personnel audit) of an organization, which should ensure:

Continuous monitoring of the current activities of the organization's personnel;

Prompt identification and assessment of risk factors;

Availability of reliable, timely and complete information for assessing current activities and making decisions.

Not every manager considers it necessary and expedient to continuously monitor the current activities of the staff, because this requires the attraction of additional resources, the shortage of which is constantly felt. Moreover, the leader “and so knows” the situation. However, studies show that what managers “know” about employees and their needs does not quite match the actual actual needs of employees.

The personnel audit (monitoring) system should be based on the personnel profile of the organization, which, based on the definition of the organization as a socio-technical system, should be built separately for the production and management personnel of the organization. A.G. Badalova proposes to represent the personnel profile of the organization by three categories of personnel:

Another variant of the personnel profile includes a set of four

These classifications are based on theories "X" and<^» Д. МакГрегора, теории «7» В. Оучи, модели ситуационного лидерства Херсея и Бланшара.

A rational personnel profile of the organization's personnel should have a level of personnel qualification sufficient to perform labor functions and a high degree of motivation to work while minimizing the number of employees who are unable and unwilling to work. The basis of human

The physical resources of organizations in practice are employees of the category<^» - сотрудники среднего возраста, активно развивающие свой человеческий капитал, знания и умения. Работники категории «7», способные и желающие работать, составляют персонал-капитал, повышая интегральную конкурентоспособность персонала организации в целом. Основой конкурентных преимуществ организации являются ее ключевые и уникальные компетенции, отражающие уровень знаний, навыков и умений персонала.

To assess the level of personnel risk, A.G. Badalova recommends the following ratios of shares in the personnel profile of the organization, shown in the table.

Personnel profile and level of risk

High Risk Principle (10:90) Medium Risk Principle (40:60): Low Risk Principle (70:30)

Personnel-capital not more than 5% 15-20% not less than 40%

Personnel-resource no more than 5% 20-25% 25-30%

Staff 10-15% 35-40% 20-25%

Frames up to 75%. 20-25% no more than 5%

To compile the personnel profile of the organization's personnel, various methods of personnel assessment are used, the most common of which are interviews and testing. The method of complex assessment of personnel is the method of the Assessment Center.

In practice, the conviction of the overwhelming majority of managers that it is inappropriate to conduct personnel monitoring is partly reinforced by HR departments that do not want, and often cannot, carry out methodical and practical work on monitoring, analyzing results, presenting recommendations and developing activities.

An available option for analyzing the personnel situation and predicting risks is the analysis of documents. An increase in the likelihood of personnel risks can be predicted on the basis of a systematic analysis of the following indirect indicators that do not require the laborious collection of additional information.

1. Reducing the qualification level of employees. The following indicators signal an increase in the probability of risk:

The share of employees with basic professional training (retraining) corresponding to their position;

The share of employees with a certain level of education, in accordance with the qualification requirements.

Reducing the proportion of workers with the necessary training and

level of education may lead to an increase in the likelihood of risks.

2. Systematic discrepancy between the planned and actual number of personnel (in general and for individual professional qualification groups) and the impossibility of timely staffing. The following indicators signal an increase in the probability of risk:

The absolute indicator of the deviation of the fact from the plan and the relative indicator of the implementation of the plan in terms of number. Indicators changing in the direction of increasing deviation indicate an unfavorable situation associated with the non-competitiveness of the organization;

The time needed to find the candidates needed by the organization. An increase in the search time for applicants for vacancies is also a signal for analyzing the causes of the problem;

Qualification level of applicants for vacancies. The decrease in the number of applicants with a high level of qualification applying for vacancies indicates a decrease in the competitiveness of jobs (and, consequently, organizations) in the external labor market;

The level of staff turnover in general and by key categories. Particular, but not unimportant indicators are the indicators of turnover among personnel accepted during the year, turnover in the age group up to 28-30 years. An increase in the level of turnover significantly affects the quantitative and qualitative provision of the organization with personnel, as well as its image.

Threat level of potential, latent turnover.

Samoukina N.V. rightly notes that as a result of high

hidden, latent fluidity, the organization is steadily losing stability. Latent turnover is related to employee satisfaction and loyalty to the organization. Qualified dissatisfied and disloyal employees can leave the organization at any time (including the most inopportune) when profitable offers are received.

Potential turnover can be studied on the basis of periodic (regular) anonymous surveys on job satisfaction and intention to find a new job. Personnel Satisfaction Survey is the most popular survey conducted in organizations.

Samoukina N.V. believes that the results of the survey allow us to distinguish five groups of employees:

1. Satisfied with work, not looking for a new job;

2. Satisfied with the job, looking for a new job;

3. Dissatisfied with work, not looking for a new job;

4. Dissatisfied with work, looking for a new job;

5. Those who declined to answer, who found it difficult to answer or answered that they had not thought about this issue.

The share of employees of the first group (motivated, stable and loyal) in the number of respondents should be at least 20% and should not decrease during repeated surveys. It is necessary to pay attention to what stabilization factors are distinguished by these employees and to develop these conditions. The second group may include young employees aged 17-27 who do not have prospects for further career and professional growth in the organization, which are priorities for them. The fourth group includes energetic, self-confident, often competent and competitive in the labor market employees who are not only actively engaged in job search, but also influence the level of loyalty of employees of the first group, informing them of information about the state of the market. A skilled employee who leaves the organization can lure colleagues away with more attractive conditions, as well as “take away” customers and “take away” information. The third group is essentially a liability, the priorities of which lie somewhere outside the labor activity of the organization, the share of which should not exceed 10%. An increase in the proportion of this group may lead to an increase in the likelihood of risks. The fifth group is probably not homogeneous and may be the subject of a special analysis, given its significant proportion in the population. The group may include apathetic passive employees; cautious, avoiding possible negative consequences; those in opposition to the leadership, etc. Satisfaction and Loyalty Classification combined with the above "X" classification,<^», «7» позволяет формировать прогнозы кадровой ситуации и вероятности кадровых рисков.

Compilation of questionnaires is a procedure that requires qualified goal setting and a description of the form of expected results. Depending on the situation in specific organizations and monitoring purposes, the questionnaires may include indicators reflecting working conditions, working regime (work schedule), content of work, wage level, dependence of remuneration on work results, social package, moral motivation, attitude of direct leadership, atmosphere in the team, relationship with colleagues, career opportunities, the opportunity to receive training, the prestige of working in the organization, its image, corporate culture, policy, ideology, strategy, compliance by the employer with social guarantees provided for by law, transport accessibility, remoteness from home and other. Indicators can be evaluated and ranked when raising the question of satisfaction with the factor and the significance of the factor.

With the help of surveys, in addition to job satisfaction, the employer can find out:

The degree of staff loyalty;

Attitude towards upcoming or upcoming innovations;

The level of commitment to the company (willingness and desire to work in the company for a long time);

The level of awareness of the staff about the life of the company;

The level of personnel involvement in solving corporate problems;

The level of tension in the team.

An acceptable method of preliminary risk assessment is the method of expert assessment, which allows you to build a risk map that reflects the significance (strength of impact) of the risk on the organization and the probability (frequency of occurrence) of risks. The method allows you to rank and group risks according to their significance and probability, complementing the questionnaire and other research methods.

An important role in minimizing personnel risks is played by the development and application of a system of motivation and incentives for employees, taking into account the specifics of each category of personnel.

Thus, it is more profitable for a business to monitor staff loyalty and retain active and in-demand employees than to allow losses. It is necessary to regularly monitor the loyalty of personnel, especially key employees. Stabilization factors should be developed, potential turnover factors, if possible, should be excluded.

The results of the study of risk factors, indicators of increasing the likelihood of personnel risks, the risky personnel profile of personnel allow us to develop a set of personnel strategies and technologies for preventing and minimizing risks based on the application of risk management methods.

Bibliography

1. Badalova A.G., Moskvitin K.P. Enterprise personnel risk management // Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship. 2005. No. 7(67). S.92-98.

2. Samoukina N.V. Personnel loyalty and personnel risks [Electronic resource] // Central Committee: http://www.samoukina.ru/article (Accessed: 07.12.2012).

3. Tsvetkova I.I. Classification of personnel risks // Economics and management. 2009. No. 6. S. 38-43.

Nechaeva Elena Stanislavovna, Ph.D. tech.sci., Assoc., [email protected], Russia, Tula, Tula branch of the Russian University of Economics. G.V. Plekhanov

ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF PERSONNEL RISKS IN ORGANIZATIONS

The current classifications of risk factors in a management of human resources of organization are considered. The approaches, allowing to predict the occurrence and development of personnel risks on the basis of qualitative systems and quantity indicators are considered and offered.

Keywords: personnel risk; the risk factors; a personnel profile; risk levels.

Nechaeva Elena Stanislavovna, candidate of technical science, docent, es [email protected], Russia, Tula, the Tula branch of the Russian economic university of G.V. Plekhanov

PROBLEMS AND COGNITIVE DISTORTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN PROCUREMENT ACTIVITIES OF ROSATOM STATE CORPORATION

M.E. Annenkov

The problems of managing the change in procurement activities in the State Corporation Rosatom are analyzed, the mechanism for the formation of vicious problems is analyzed using the methodology developed by the author of the article.

Keywords: vicious problem; organizational changes; cognitive distortion.

In the practice of managing large Russian enterprises, such as the State Corporation Rosatom, vicious problems often arise, characterized by fundamental ambiguity and confusion, which cannot be explained from the standpoint of the assumption of the rationality of human behavior. Such problems are formed as a result of the action of cognitive distortions. The general principle behind cognitive biases is that people resort to thinking methods called heuristics to get quick but approximate answers. These responses are in most cases quite satisfactory, but they are a source of serious systematic errors called cognitive biases.