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1 UDC N. A. Katargina, T. V. Beltyukova PERSONNEL RISKS AND THEIR MANAGEMENT METHODS IN modern conditions market economy, personnel risk management is an important component of increasing the competitiveness of any organization, ensuring its personnel security, and requires the inclusion of sections of the analysis of personnel risks and the features of their management in the organization's internal development programs. The article reveals the relevance of risks in the system personnel management organizations. The content of the concept of "personnel risk" is defined as a situation that reflects the danger of an undesirable development of events that directly affect the functioning and development of the organization and personnel. Based on the analysis of existing views on the nature of personnel risks, the author's approach to their definition and classification is presented. Theoretical and methodological aspects of personnel risk management, the most common methods of risk assessment are studied. The content of the stages of development of the personnel risk management system in the work with the personnel of the organization is determined. A brief description of such personnel risk management tools as diversification, outsourcing and outstaffing, risk insurance is presented. Keywords Keywords: personnel risks, risk management, classification, human resources, risk map. Over the past few years, there has been a lot of attention to the risks that organizations are exposed to and, accordingly, to the methods of risk management. An analysis of the theory and practice of risk management shows that domestic enterprises this work It is not always carried out effectively, mainly because a full-fledged scientific, methodological and informational basis has not been created in this area of ​​management, there is no effective experience in risk management in the organization and their audit. Katargina N. A., Beltyukova T. V., 2017

2 The activity of each economic entity is, first of all, the activity of the personnel working in it. Human capital is increasingly becoming a source of development for any enterprise. Therefore, the management of an economic entity should take into account the risks directly related to personnel, since they can affect: the health and life of employees, communications and relationships between employees, the company's business reputation, the income of each employee in the organization, etc. In this regard, , it is necessary to conduct timely training of personnel in the organization to eliminate adverse threats to the company, for a qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Consider the essence of the concept of personnel risk and its classification. Classic definition personnel risk applied when economic analysis the risk of losses associated with possible errors of employees, failure to comply with established official functions, professional incompetence, violation of ethics and abuse of personnel. In general, personnel risk should be understood as the probability of an organization losing its resources, shortfall in income as a result of the actions or inaction of its own personnel. In theory, there are many different classifications of this phenomenon. Thus, a number of scientists divide personnel risks depending on the stage of work with personnel: risks associated with hiring an employee in an organization (selection of an employee who meets the requirements of the organization); risks arising from the employee's activities in the organization (accidents, theft, errors); risks arising after the dismissal of an employee from the organization (transfer of production secrets to competitors, etc.). The following classification of personnel risks is also distinguished: risks directly related to personnel (death, retirement, disability, etc.); risks caused by the behavior of personnel (leakage

3 information, injuries at work, offenses, etc.). In turn, A.R. Alaverdov subdivides personnel risks, depending on the form of their implementation, into quantitative, qualitative and risks of personnel disloyalty. Quantitative risks are associated with a shortage or excess of personnel in an economic entity. The implementation of these risks is associated either with an increase in the cost of personnel wages, or with a failure to comply with production standards and non-compliance with the conditions for the normal functioning of the organization's personnel, which, in turn, leads to moral dissatisfaction of the organization's personnel and leaves an imprint on the organization's activities as a whole. Qualitative risks are associated with a discrepancy between the qualifications of employees and the requirements placed on them as a result of unqualified verification of candidates when hiring. The realization of these risks can lead either to additional costs for the organization to retrain or retrain already recruited personnel, or to additional costs for recruitment. suitable organization personnel. Qualitative risks begin to act already during the selection of employees of the organization. When selecting, the management of the organization must outline for itself what requirements this employee must meet. Among these requirements, the following can be distinguished: level of education, work experience, reviews from previous places work, medical characteristics, psychological characteristics, social status, age, etc. There is also such a category as the risks of personnel disloyalty. These risks are manifested in the fact that the heads of organizations trust their staff too much, which can lead to the disclosure of some confidential information about the organization by employees, contribute to the disclosure of trade secrets, lead to theft, etc. .

4 For effective management of personnel risks, which allows to adequately determine the location of each risk and direct efforts to develop measures to protect the enterprise from negative impacts, it is advisable to classify personnel risks depending on the stage of occurrence. Based on this, the authors proposed the following classification of personnel risks (Figure 1). The proposed approach to the classification of personnel risks reflects the specifics of organizational and labor relations at every stage life cycle enterprise and allows you to plan the process of managing personnel security on a systematic basis. Personnel management risks Risks arising from the formation of the personnel structure Inconsistency in the qualitative and / or quantitative composition of personnel, inefficiency of employee selection procedures, adaptation problems, high staff turnover Risks arising from the use of human resources Low labor productivity, inefficient use of working time, failure to comply functions, violation of labor and production discipline, damage to the property of the enterprise, fraud, excessive spending and abuse of personnel Risks arising in the process of personnel development creative development, mistakes in the management of professional careers, low motivation of staff, inefficient work with the personnel reserve Risks arising at the stage of staff release litigation, leakage of confidential information, deterioration of the moral and psychological climate in the team, negative reputational consequences 1. Classification of personnel risks according to the stage of occurrence Based on modern approach to risk management and, taking into account the peculiarities of personnel risk, we will determine what management is

5 personnel risks of the organization. HR risk management is the process of identifying, evaluating and controlling all internal and external factors personnel risk, the change of which may adversely affect the activities of the organization and its personnel. HR risk management begins at the stage of developing a personnel management strategy and covers the entire personnel management system of an organization at all its levels. Activity analysis various organizations showed that at present, personnel risk management as an independent function of personnel management is not singled out. At the same time, all the functions of personnel management are aimed at developing the organization and its personnel, ensuring the protection of their interests, and hence ensuring personnel security. Let's give brief description the main stages of personnel risk management in the organization. 1. Personnel risk management includes, first of all, the search and identification of personnel risks. At the same time, the search for risks should not turn into total control over the activities of the employees of the organization. For example, trying to avoid mistakes in the activities of an employee, the management of the organization can negate all his attempts to take the initiative, participate in something new, make any creative proposals to the management of the organization. And from this follows both the moral dissatisfaction of the employee and the deterioration of the psychological climate in the work team, when each employee knows that all his actions are under the control of management. 2. Next comes the stage of formalization of personnel risks, that is, the quantitative characteristics of risks are calculated and evaluated. To do this, organizations can apply various procedures and methods. So, among the tools and methods for assessing personnel risks, modern researchers include risk maps, building personnel profile, risk ranking, risk spirals, method of analysis of hierarchies, analogies,

6 building the risk spectrum of the personnel management system, etc. . For example, a method of ranking risks depending on the likelihood of occurrence and the expected consequences. An organization may use a “likelihood of consequence” scale to visualize risk. Also, for risk analysis, the organization can use the personnel risk matrix presented in Table 1. Consequences Personnel risk matrix high Probability low Significant A B Insignificant C D likely to lead to negative consequences. If the risk is among the risks of group B, then the organization must develop measures to manage this risk, as in a state of uncertainty external environment it is impossible to determine exactly what can provoke an increase in the likelihood of this risk and the occurrence of undesirable consequences of this risk. Risk C cannot lead to significant consequences, but the organization must control it in order to achieve stability in its activities. Group D risks are unlikely and not disruptive, but the organization should review them periodically to gain as much information as possible and not lose control of the risk. Drawing up a matrix of personnel risks is the least expensive way and allows management to plan their own actions to neutralize them.

7 y, loss value 50% 25% Critical risk zone Acceptable risk zone 0.35 0.7 Pic. 2. Risk map x, risk probability As an alternative to the risk matrix, it is possible to propose the use of the mapping method. With the help of a risk map, you can graphically depict all possible risks, indicate the likelihood of their occurrence, as well as the limits of risk tolerance. Figure 2 shows a map of personnel risks, which is compiled through an expert assessment of their probability and significance. The risk is considered acceptable if the probability of its impact is from 0 to 0.35, and the amount of losses does not exceed 25%. The risk is considered medium (critical) if the probability of its impact is from 0.36 to 0.7, the value of possible losses is from 26 to 50%. If the risk probability is greater than 0.71 and the loss level is greater than 51%, then the risk is considered unacceptable. 3. Planning to counteract and neutralize personnel risks is the third stage of personnel risk management. In this case, a risk management action plan is drawn up: risk formulation, definition of its consequences, description of the risk management strategy, sequence of actions for its implementation, definition responsible persons for the implementation of the risk management strategy, the development of a fallback strategy in case the initial strategy proves to be ineffective.

8 4. And, finally, the last stage is the control and monitoring of the effectiveness of personnel risk management. At the same time, it is advisable to divide control over personnel risks into three groups, namely: control over expected risks, control over realizable risks and control over actual risks. For risks that are manageable and poorly managed in practice, enterprises can use the following personnel risk management tools. 1. Diversification dilution, distribution of risk between different areas activities, suppliers, consumers, recruitment agencies, employees. For example, the diversification of control risks occurs due to the separation of duties or dual control: the functions of issuing checks, making payments, checking bank statements, receiving cash should not be performed by one employee, one person should not have uncontrolled access to finance, should not work alone on one with clients. Risk diversification can also apply to investments in human capital: distribution of risks for various projects in the field of personnel management, social programs, types of training, etc. Another area of ​​risk diversification is the creation of a single data bank, knowledge bases, corporate library, a single information the departure of a single valuable employee. At the same time, procedures and technologies should exist in the company that automatically capture new knowledge and methods of work for their subsequent use by all employees. The most advanced type of diversification of human resource risks is outsourcing and outstaffing of personnel: 1) outstaffing (outstaffing) involves the removal of employees from the staff of the company and their simultaneous registration in the staff of the provider company

9 (private recruitment agency) with the employees retaining their usual (former) workplace and official duties. 2) outsourcing (outsourcing) hiring employees by a specialized company with the subsequent provision of their labor force to other customer companies to perform certain work (services) provided for by an employee (personnel) labor contract. Outsourcing and outstaffing are new technologies for working with personnel, assuming that personnel policy organization should be aimed at improving the efficiency of the use of human resources, the implementation of such activities and technologies that will allow more productive use of the organization's human resources. IN this case outstaffing is of greater interest, since this form of agency work is relatively new and most attractive for our country. According to employers, outstaffing allows them to free themselves from the burden of additional expenses, as it involves taking them out of the state permanent workers, who, although they obey and fulfill the labor duties of the previous employer, but at the same time, all questions on payment wages, tax deductions to the budget, personnel office work the new employer takes over the private employment agency, to whose staff the staff is transferred. This makes it possible to diversify the risks of the company, shifting them partially to the execution by a private employment agency of the withdrawn part of the employees to the new employer. First, outstaffing has become a solution to the problems caused by the costs of a legally regulated market in which the number of laws and regulations governing labor relations is growing at an unthinkable pace, as a result of which companies are forced to deal with them and spend at least 25% of my time. A private employment agency assumes the risks of tracking ongoing changes and correct documentary and legal

10 escort staff. The acquisition of additional time will allow the HR departments of the enterprise itself to reallocate work time, learn and apply the latest techniques training and personnel management. Secondly, many small and medium-sized companies do not have the opportunity to provide their employees with so-called benefit packages. social benefits and insurance due to the high cost of contracts with insurers. Here, too, a private agency takes the risks of staff dissatisfaction with these aspects and solves this kind of problem. Thirdly, the provider assumes the risks of conflicts, disputable situations with personnel, the risks of checking personnel during hiring and dismissal. 2. Risk insurance is a relationship to protect the property interests of individuals and legal entities upon the occurrence of certain events (insured events) at the expense of monetary funds formed from the insurance premiums paid by them (insurance premiums). Personnel insurance programs in companies, as a rule, concern the health and life insurance of personnel, the provision of a different range of medical and dental services, depending on the rank of the employee. They can be carried out both completely at the expense of the employer, and at the expense of contributions by the employees themselves (pension insurance savings). The establishment of a guarantee period for the proposed specialist by the recruitment agency can be recognized as a kind of insurance tool for personnel risks. Guarantee period, during which the replacement of a hired candidate is made free of charge, is usually set equal to probationary period specified by the customer in the application for the selection of a specialist. The replacement guarantee is valid provided that the customer himself did not violate the conditions of the candidate's work described in the application for the selection of a specialist. When selecting top managers, when it comes to high level

11 responsibility and cost of the project, the warranty can reach 1 year. By default, it is assumed that the performer will present at least 3 candidates, while as much as possible corresponding to the profile of the position previously agreed or prescribed in the application. Priority programs for occupations that threaten health and life include life insurance programs. Contributions to the life insurance fund range from 0.5 to 1% of an employee's annual income. Confidence in the future, in their secure retirement existence, is given to employees by pension programs that guarantee them a secure old age and the payment of a corporate pension in full or limited amounts, depending on age, seniority and the number of years of work in this organization. So, the work of a company in managing personnel risks goes through the following main stages. Threat Vulnerability Risk: identification of risk, determination of the source, causes, nature and level of losses Risk assessment: qualitative and quantitative Risk management: development of strategies, principles, methods outsourcing, outstaffing, insurance Analysis of the results of the actions taken and the prospects for their use in the future Pic. 3. Stages of personnel risk management

12 In the opinion of the authors, the nature of the enterprise's activity will correspond to the market environment, if the enterprise is able to produce and sell products in demand on the market and, at the same time, the achieved result will correspond to the enterprise's goal. This state is ensured by the high-quality and timely performance of all management functions at the enterprise, as well as by the appropriate level of the necessary potential: the qualifications of employees, the availability of material and technical base and socio-economic guarantees. Summing up, we can say that nowadays risk and uncertainty are an integral part of business. The staff of the organization is the most important resource entrepreneurial activity, and a source of large losses, up to bankruptcy and liquidation of the company, i.e. acts as the main source of risk. In the author's opinion, Russian firms should pay more attention to such a moment of personnel development as systematic, advanced and innovative training and advanced training of personnel. It is obvious that the innovative improvement of the personnel management system and personnel risks in particular, the search for new approaches to risk management are becoming increasingly important as a factor in improving the efficiency of the enterprise's economy and are necessary attributes of its successful functioning. Personnel risk management is an important component of increasing the competitiveness of any organization, ensuring its personnel security and requires the inclusion of sections of the analysis of personnel risks and the features of managing such risks in the organization's in-house training programs. 304 p. References 1. Alaverdov A. R. Personnel Management: studies. allowance. M.: "Market DS", 2009.

13 2. Borzunov A. A. To the question of the essence of the concept of "personnel risk" // Economics and modern management: theory and practice: Sat. Art. based on materials XL intl. scientific-pract. conf. Novosibirsk: SibAK, (40). S Katargina N. A. Formation of innovative personnel potential as a factor in increasing the competitiveness of an enterprise // Bulletin of the Volga State University of Service. Ser. "Economy". Togliatti: Publishing house-polygraph. center PVGUS, (27). S Katargina N. A. Outsourcing and outstaffing of personnel: essence and legal consequences // Development of science and education in modern world: Sat. scientific tr. according to the materials of the international scientific-practical. Conf., March 31, 2015. Part II. M.: AR-Consult, S Mitrofanova A. E. The concept of personnel risk management in work with the personnel of an organization // Competence S Panfilova E. A. The concept of risk: a variety of approaches and definitions // Theory and practice of social development S Sennikova I. L ., Katargina N. A. Innovation Management development of human resources as competitive advantage organizations // Almanac of world science: Sat. scientific tr. according to the materials of the international scientific-practical. Conf., January 31, 2016. Moscow: AR-Consult, (4). With Solomanidina T. O. Personnel security of the company. Moscow: Alfa-Press, p. KATARGINA Natalya Aleksandrovna Senior Lecturer of the Department of State and municipal government, Vyatsky State University, Kirov, st. Moskovskaya, BELTYUKOVA Tatyana Vasilievna IV-year student, Vyatka State University, Kirov, st. Moscow,

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UDK 331.101

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF PERSONNEL RISKS IN ORGANIZATIONS

E.S. Nechaev

Existing classifications of risk factors in the human resource management system of organizations are considered. Approaches are considered and proposed that make it possible to predict the emergence and development of personnel risks based on systems of qualitative and quantitative indicators.

Key words: personnel risk; risk factors; personnel profile; risk levels.

Ensuring the success of the functioning and security of any organization is due to the complex management impact on real and potential threats (risks) arising in unstable conditions of external and internal environment. The main element in the security system is the human factor, which can have a critical impact on the competitiveness of the organization.

The human resource management subsystem is objectively the key subsystem of the organization, since provides the techno-economic system with living intelligence, the driving (or destroying) force of business ideas and business processes. The human resource ultimately predetermines the risks of direct and indirect losses due to inefficient construction of business processes, decision-making and implementation procedures, technological deviations, unpredictable and unpredictable actions of personnel, inadequate response and adaptation in relation to environmental factors.

The need for conscious risk management in the field of human resource management (personnel risks) leads to the relevance of analyzing and systematizing the main risks, factors that determine the emergence and development risk situations, as well as indicators signaling the emergence of a risky (pre-risk) situation. Personnel risks in a general sense can be considered as any action or inaction on the part of the staff (human resource).

Personnel risk is a complex risk, which predetermines the difference in approaches to risk classification, risk factors, risk consequences, risk management methods in the works of A.G. Badalova, E.S. Zharikova, L.V. Zubareva, Yu.G. Odegova, S.G. Radko, A.L. Slobodchikova, N.V. Samoukina, V. Fedoseeva, I.I. Tsvetkova, S.V. Shekshni and other authors.

In the practice of managing organizations, there are two polar points of view on personnel risks. According to the first point of view

HR risks are mostly random, temporary, partly cyclical in nature, due to minor errors, rare miscalculations in personnel management or deterioration in the overall external situation. Consequently, managers do not need to pay attention and allocate resources to managing personnel risks. The second point of view is based on the understanding that personnel risks are the result of insufficient effective work with human resources in the organization and the cause of all other types of risks in the organization. This position justifies the need to study and analyze the causes, factors, indicators of the occurrence of personnel risks in the organization, the development and application of management methods and minimization of personnel risks. Polar points of view are an idealized model, which in practice is represented by management activities, with varying degrees of activity aimed at predicting and minimizing personnel risks.

The classification of personnel risks is multifaceted and quite fully presented in publications devoted to personnel risks. The classifications reproduced below are necessary for the analysis of factors and indicators of personnel risks.

I.I. Tsvetkova, systematizing risks, identifies the following types of risks:

Job risk arising from inadequate staffing, improper job description that does not correspond to the types of activities, goals, objectives, functions, technology;

Qualification and educational risk arising from inadequate recruitment, selection, development of personnel in case of discrepancy between the education, profession, qualifications of the employee of the position held;

The risk of abuse and dishonesty arising from the imbalance of the various subsystems of the organization (corporate culture, management methodology and technology, the activities of security services);

The risk of non-acceptance by employees of innovations arising from violations key principles and organizational development procedures (goal setting, flexible planning, information, adaptation, training, stimulation and involvement of personnel).

Depending on the stage of human resource management technology, the following risks are often described in the literature.

1. Risks associated with the recruitment, selection and selection of personnel. These risks can eventually lead to qualification risks, risks of abuse and bad faith, risks of non-adoption of innovations, as well as economic risks with various consequences. An important factor to be considered in the selection is

dialogue and mutual coincidence of the expectations of the organization and the employee, the possibility of harmonious inclusion of the employee in the existing organizational culture. Uncomfortable culture for the employee leads to many negative consequences leading to a variety of risks;

2. Risks associated with inadequate motivation and ineffective incentives. These risks can lead to disloyalty, abuse, dishonesty and rejection of innovations;

3. Risks associated with the dismissal of employees. These risks can lead to significant material and non-material damage in the absence of proper work with dismissed employees;

4. Risks associated with information security and protection of trade secrets. It is this group of risks that is most often considered and taken into account due to the perception of a clear threat to the organization's business. Publications note that about 80% of material damage to organizations is caused by their own personnel;

5. Risks caused by the presence in the organization of certain groups of employees included in the "risk groups" for observed or expected behavior. Most competitive successful organizations can minimize these risks as a result of adequate non-formalized selection, in which potential employees can show the full range of their strengths and weaknesses.

These risks can be divided into risks at the entry stage (recruitment, selection), risks at the activity stage (implementation labor functions and achievement of results) and risks at the exit stage (release).

The division of risks into quantitative and qualitative is fully consistent with the goal of human resource management of the organization, which is to provide the organization with personnel of the required quality in the planned quantity at the set time. Personnel risks of a quantitative nature can manifest themselves in the form of losses due to a discrepancy between the actual number of employees and the planned needs of the organization and include:

Risks of untimely replacement of vacancies (vacated or created);

Risks of untimely release of personnel in the presence of hidden unemployment in the divisions of the organization;

Staff turnover risks.

Personnel risks of a qualitative nature can manifest themselves in the form of losses due to a discrepancy between the actual characteristics of the organization's personnel and the requirements for it and include:

Risks of insufficient qualification of employees;

Risks of employees lacking the necessary professionally significant qualities;

The risks of employees not having the necessary personal qualities;

Risks of inadequate motivation of employees;

Risks of disloyalty.

Considering the form of possible damage, it is necessary to state that personnel risks can cause property and non-property damage to organizations. Moreover, the latter can be very significant, because. associated with intangible assets, reputation and image, which are acquired by purposeful long-term efforts.

Identification, analysis and monitoring of risk factors allows targeted management of personnel risks.

Not every leader can agree with the fact that the key risk-forming factor in the management of an organization and in the field of human resource management is the competitiveness of the subject of management - the head of the organization, associated with personal and professional qualities. It is the leader who is the person who determines the mission of the organization, accepts the key strategic decisions performing decision-making, informational and interpersonal roles. The manager's competitiveness is influenced by qualifications, professional authority, leadership, management style, adequacy of role performance, professional motivation.

Intermediate factors - consequences of the key factor are the factors of competitiveness of the management system, which includes the following factors.

1. Competitiveness of the management team associated with the procedures and results of team building. Competitiveness is influenced by the goals facing the team and approaches to their implementation, the quality of team members, the degree of achievement of a synergistic effect;

2. The competitiveness of the organization associated with the presence and execution of the mission, strategy, mechanisms for its implementation;

3. Competitiveness of infrastructure, including workers

4. Competitiveness of technology adoption, maintenance and implementation management decisions, including personnel;

5. The competitiveness of the corporate culture associated with its attractiveness for competitive personnel in the external and internal markets, business partners and others target audiences;

6. Competitiveness of results, expressed in the competitiveness of products, customer and staff satisfaction.

The competitiveness of the manager and the management system leads to the attraction and retention of the necessary competitive

personnel, compliance corporate culture and whose loyalty ensures the potential minimization of personnel risks. The presented ideal model is practically not achievable, since the balance between the organization and the staff is constantly in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Dynamic balance obliges the management of the organization and the HR department to monitor the situation in human resource management, including personnel risk management. A.G. Badalova believes that the initial prerequisite for creating an effective mechanism for minimizing operational (personnel) risk is the formation of a internal control (personnel audit) an organization that must ensure:

Continuous monitoring current activities organization personnel;

Prompt identification and assessment of risk factors;

Availability of reliable, timely and complete information for assessing current activities and making decisions.

Not every manager considers it necessary and expedient to continuously monitor the current activities of the staff, because this requires the attraction of additional resources, the shortage of which is constantly felt. Moreover, the leader “and so knows” the situation. However, studies show that what managers “know” about employees and their needs does not quite match the actual actual needs of employees.

The personnel audit (monitoring) system should be based on the personnel profile of the organization, which, based on the definition of the organization as a socio-technical system, should be built separately for production and management personnel organizations. A.G. Badalova proposes to represent the personnel profile of the organization by three categories of personnel:

Another variant of the personnel profile includes a set of four

These classifications are based on theories "X" and<^» Д. МакГрегора, теории «7» В. Оучи, модели ситуационного лидерства Херсея и Бланшара.

A rational personnel profile of the organization's personnel should have a level of personnel qualification sufficient to perform labor functions and a high degree of motivation to work while minimizing the number of employees who are unable and unwilling to work. The basis of human

The physical resources of organizations in practice are employees of the category<^» - сотрудники среднего возраста, активно развивающие свой человеческий капитал, знания и умения. Работники категории «7», способные и желающие работать, составляют персонал-капитал, повышая интегральную конкурентоспособность персонала организации в целом. Основой конкурентных преимуществ организации являются ее ключевые и уникальные компетенции, отражающие уровень знаний, навыков и умений персонала.

To assess the level of personnel risk, A.G. Badalova recommends the following ratios of shares in the personnel profile of the organization, shown in the table.

Personnel profile and level of risk

High Risk Principle (10:90) Medium Risk Principle (40:60): Low Risk Principle (70:30)

Personnel-capital not more than 5% 15-20% not less than 40%

Personnel-resource no more than 5% 20-25% 25-30%

Staff 10-15% 35-40% 20-25%

Frames up to 75%. 20-25% no more than 5%

To compile the personnel profile of the organization's personnel, various methods of personnel assessment are used, the most common of which are interviews and testing. The method of complex assessment of personnel is the method of the Assessment Center.

In practice, the conviction of the overwhelming majority of managers that it is inappropriate to conduct personnel monitoring is partly reinforced by HR departments that do not want, and often cannot, carry out methodical and practical work on monitoring, analyzing results, presenting recommendations and developing activities.

An available option for analyzing the personnel situation and predicting risks is the analysis of documents. An increase in the likelihood of personnel risks can be predicted on the basis of a systematic analysis of the following indirect indicators that do not require the laborious collection of additional information.

1. Reducing the qualification level of employees. The following indicators signal an increase in the probability of risk:

The share of employees with basic professional training (retraining) corresponding to their position;

The share of employees with a certain level of education, in accordance with the qualification requirements.

Reducing the proportion of workers with the necessary training and

level of education may lead to an increase in the likelihood of risks.

2. Systematic discrepancy between the planned and actual number of personnel (in general and for individual professional qualification groups) and the impossibility of timely staffing. The following indicators signal an increase in the probability of risk:

The absolute indicator of the deviation of the fact from the plan and the relative indicator of the implementation of the plan in terms of number. Indicators changing in the direction of increasing deviation indicate an unfavorable situation associated with the non-competitiveness of the organization;

The time needed to find the candidates needed by the organization. An increase in the search time for applicants for vacancies is also a signal for analyzing the causes of the problem;

Qualification level of applicants for vacancies. The decrease in the number of applicants with a high level of qualification applying for vacancies indicates a decrease in the competitiveness of jobs (and, consequently, organizations) in the external labor market;

The level of staff turnover in general and by key categories. Particular, but not unimportant indicators are the indicators of turnover among personnel accepted during the year, turnover in the age group up to 28-30 years. An increase in the level of turnover significantly affects the quantitative and qualitative provision of the organization with personnel, as well as its image.

Threat level of potential, latent turnover.

Samoukina N.V. rightly notes that as a result of high

hidden, latent fluidity, the organization is steadily losing stability. Latent turnover is related to employee satisfaction and loyalty to the organization. Qualified dissatisfied and disloyal employees can leave the organization at any time (including the most inopportune) when profitable offers are received.

Potential turnover can be studied on the basis of periodic (regular) anonymous surveys on job satisfaction and intention to find a new job. Personnel Satisfaction Survey is the most popular survey conducted in organizations.

Samoukina N.V. believes that the results of the survey allow us to distinguish five groups of employees:

1. Satisfied with work, not looking for a new job;

2. Satisfied with the job, looking for a new job;

3. Dissatisfied with work, not looking for a new job;

4. Dissatisfied with work, looking for a new job;

5. Those who declined to answer, who found it difficult to answer or answered that they had not thought about this issue.

The share of employees of the first group (motivated, stable and loyal) in the number of respondents should be at least 20% and should not decrease during repeated surveys. It is necessary to pay attention to what stabilization factors are distinguished by these employees and to develop these conditions. The second group may include young employees aged 17-27 who do not have prospects for further career and professional growth in the organization, which are priorities for them. The fourth group includes energetic, self-confident, often competent and competitive in the labor market employees who are not only actively engaged in job search, but also influence the level of loyalty of employees of the first group, informing them of information about the state of the market. A skilled employee who leaves the organization can lure colleagues away with more attractive conditions, as well as “take away” customers and “take away” information. The third group is essentially a liability, the priorities of which lie somewhere outside the labor activity of the organization, the share of which should not exceed 10%. An increase in the proportion of this group may lead to an increase in the likelihood of risks. The fifth group is probably not homogeneous and may be the subject of a special analysis, given its significant proportion in the population. The group may include apathetic passive employees; cautious, avoiding possible negative consequences; those in opposition to the leadership, etc. Satisfaction and Loyalty Classification combined with the above "X" classification,<^», «7» позволяет формировать прогнозы кадровой ситуации и вероятности кадровых рисков.

Compilation of questionnaires is a procedure that requires qualified goal setting and a description of the form of expected results. Depending on the situation in specific organizations and monitoring purposes, the questionnaires may include indicators reflecting working conditions, working regime (work schedule), content of work, wage level, dependence of remuneration on work results, social package, moral motivation, attitude of direct leadership, atmosphere in the team, relationship with colleagues, career opportunities, the opportunity to receive training, the prestige of working in the organization, its image, corporate culture, policy, ideology, strategy, compliance by the employer with social guarantees provided for by law, transport accessibility, remoteness from home and other. Indicators can be evaluated and ranked when raising the question of satisfaction with the factor and the significance of the factor.

With the help of surveys, in addition to job satisfaction, the employer can find out:

The degree of staff loyalty;

Attitude towards upcoming or upcoming innovations;

The level of commitment to the company (willingness and desire to work in the company for a long time);

The level of awareness of the staff about the life of the company;

The level of personnel involvement in solving corporate problems;

The level of tension in the team.

An acceptable method of preliminary risk assessment is the method of expert assessment, which allows you to build a risk map that reflects the significance (strength of impact) of the risk on the organization and the probability (frequency of occurrence) of risks. The method allows you to rank and group risks according to their significance and probability, complementing the questionnaire and other research methods.

An important role in minimizing personnel risks is played by the development and application of a system of motivation and incentives for employees, taking into account the specifics of each category of personnel.

Thus, it is more profitable for a business to monitor staff loyalty and retain active and in-demand employees than to allow losses. It is necessary to regularly monitor the loyalty of personnel, especially key employees. Stabilization factors should be developed, potential turnover factors, if possible, should be excluded.

The results of the study of risk factors, indicators of increasing the likelihood of personnel risks, the risky personnel profile of personnel allow us to develop a set of personnel strategies and technologies for preventing and minimizing risks based on the application of risk management methods.

Bibliography

1. Badalova A.G., Moskvitin K.P. Enterprise personnel risk management // Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship. 2005. No. 7(67). S.92-98.

2. Samoukina N.V. Personnel loyalty and personnel risks [Electronic resource] // Central Committee: http://www.samoukina.ru/article (Accessed: 07.12.2012).

3. Tsvetkova I.I. Classification of personnel risks // Economics and management. 2009. No. 6. S. 38-43.

Nechaeva Elena Stanislavovna, Ph.D. tech.sci., Assoc., [email protected], Russia, Tula, Tula branch of the Russian University of Economics. G.V. Plekhanov

ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF PERSONNEL RISKS IN ORGANIZATIONS

The current classifications of risk factors in a management of human resources of organization are considered. The approaches, allowing to predict the occurrence and development of personnel risks on the basis of qualitative systems and quantity indicators are considered and offered.

Keywords: personnel risk; the risk factors; a personnel profile; risk levels.

Nechaeva Elena Stanislavovna, candidate of technical science, docent, es [email protected], Russia, Tula, the Tula branch of the Russian economic university of G.V. Plekhanov

PROBLEMS AND COGNITIVE DISTORTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN PROCUREMENT ACTIVITIES OF ROSATOM STATE CORPORATION

M.E. Annenkov

The problems of managing the change in procurement activities in the State Corporation Rosatom are analyzed, the mechanism for the formation of vicious problems is analyzed using the methodology developed by the author of the article.

Keywords: vicious problem; organizational changes; cognitive distortion.

In the practice of managing large Russian enterprises, such as the State Corporation Rosatom, vicious problems often arise, characterized by fundamental ambiguity and confusion, which cannot be explained from the standpoint of the assumption of the rationality of human behavior. Such problems are formed as a result of the action of cognitive distortions. The general principle behind cognitive biases is that people resort to thinking methods called heuristics to get quick but approximate answers. These responses are in most cases quite satisfactory, but they are a source of serious systematic errors called cognitive biases.

Currently, one of the most important conditions for the functioning of an organization with a focus on increasing its value, stable profit and efficient operation is personnel risk management, which is becoming one of the main competitive advantages of an organization, regardless of its legal form and type of activity.

Personnel risk is understood as the threat of losses arising from the inefficient functioning of the organization's personnel management system, mistakes made by the organization's management and personnel department when developing a personnel strategy or in the process of making operational decisions in the field of personnel management.

Personnel risk is a complex risk, therefore, it is necessary to classify the types of personnel risks, which means their distribution into separate groups according to certain characteristics in order to achieve certain goals. Each risk has its own risk management approach.

The following groups of personnel risks can be distinguished:

• 1. According to the nature of the manifestation personnel risks can be divided into quantitative and qualitative ones. Personnel risks quantitative associated with a lack or excess of human resources in a particular organization. They can manifest themselves in the form of various losses due to the discrepancy between the actual number of employees and the current needs of the organization and include:
  • - risks of untimely replacement of newly created or released jobs;
  • - risks of untimely reduction in the number of personnel of not fully loaded structural divisions of the organization;
  • - risks of disproportions in the number of personnel in various departments, characterized by an excess number of personnel in some departments and the presence of vacancies in others;
  • - job risks, consisting in the inconsistency of the position itself with the types of activities, goals, tasks, functions and technologies. The reasons for their occurrence may be inadequate staffing or a distorted job description.

Personnel risks qualitative character due to the discrepancy between the actual characteristics of the personnel available to the organization and the requirements for it. They include:

• - qualification and educational risk, the essence of which is the inconsistency of the employee with the position held;
• - risks of insufficient qualification of personnel;
• - the risks of specific employees lacking the necessary professional qualities (for example, work experience in this position, responsibility, diligence, creativity, business intuition, etc.);
• - risks of personnel disloyalty;
• - risks of lack of necessary personal qualities in specific employees (for example, intellectual potential, psychological stability, sociability, etc.);
• - the risk of abuse and dishonesty, depending on the level of work on the selection and hiring of personnel, the effectiveness of the security services, the effectiveness of the control and audit apparatus, management style, corporate culture;
• - the risk of rejection by employees of innovations. Innovation management involves timely informing people, choosing clear goals and strategies, flexible planning and organization, stimulating staff and involving them in changes at all stages, training staff and targeting their behavior.
• 2. For reasons of occurrence personnel risks are divided into individual and organizational.

Individual personnel risks include the following types:

• - biological risks (age, health level, psycho-physiological characteristics, performance capacity);
• - socio-psychological risks (motives, values, norms, culture, social roles performed, conflict, loyalty);
• - intellectual risks (level of intelligence, education);
• - professional risks (creative potential, professional potential, competencies, qualifications, work experience);
• - personal risks (short-sightedness, negligence, fear of blackmail, sudden worsening or improvement of financial situation, social status, vanity, desire to maintain position, easy suggestibility, gullibility, deceit, criminal record, greed, resentment, vindictiveness, meanness, instability to stress, loneliness , secrecy).

Organizational personnel risks are primarily due to inefficient work in the field of personnel management, namely, inefficient systems for the selection and selection of personnel, motivation and incentives for personnel, career management, etc.

• 3. According to the possible damage personnel risks are divided into:
  • - property risks, the damage from which can be accurately determined in monetary terms;
  • - non-property (or non-material) risks associated with damage caused, for example, to the image of the enterprise as a business partner.
• 4. Possible extent of damage personnel risks are most often referred to as local, only in the rarest cases an organization can suffer significant losses, which are usually determined by erroneous decisions of the top management of the organization.
• 5. According to the degree of regularity of manifestation personnel risks are divided into one-time or occasional, regular, permanent risks.
• 6. Depending on the degree of sensitivity to risks of various stakeholder groups allowable, acceptable and unacceptable personnel risks are allocated.

The following groups of main factors influencing the occurrence of personnel risks in the organization are distinguished.

Internal factors - managed, i.e. depending on the management of the enterprise and (indirectly) on external factors that determine the conditions for the occurrence of risks:

• discrepancy between the qualifications of employees and the requirements for them;
• insufficient qualification of employees;
• weak organization of the personnel management system;
• poor organization of the training system;
• inefficient system of motivation;
• errors in personnel resource planning;
• reduction in the number of rationalization proposals and initiatives;
• care of qualified employees;
• orientation of employees to the solution of internal tactical tasks;
• orientation of employees to the observance of the interests of the unit;
• absence or weak corporate policy;
• low-quality checks of candidates when hiring, etc.

Without a doubt, HR managers can continue this list, which should be done by analyzing the state of personnel work in terms of safety and break-even labor relations in the enterprise.

External factors - unmanaged, i.e. not dependent on organizational management, but determining the personnel policy of the enterprise and the degree of risk:

• competitors have better motivation conditions;
• installation of competitors to lure personnel;
• external pressure on employees;
• getting employees into various types of addiction;
• inflationary processes (it is impossible not to take into account when calculating wages and forecasting its dynamics). Risk cases are divided into random (unintentional) and non-random (targeted).

Random is mainly caused by the following reasons:

• lack of awareness of the essence of what is happening and the consequences of their actions;
• negligence, inattention, violation or lack of relevant rules and regulations;
• inadequate in-house training;
• own vision of the situation (good intentions);
• gap between true and declared organizational values.

Purposeful risk behavior is mainly due to:

• own vision of the situation (good intentions);
• personal gain;
• individual values ​​that are different from those of the organization;
• gap between true and declared organizational values;
• low interest in the existence (development) of the organization;
• intracorporate intrigues, intergroup conflicts;
• disloyalty, demotivation, conflicts (sometimes with a separate specific person);
• atmosphere of dark mystery.

Introduction

In the conditions of the formation of a market economy in our country, planning the needs of an enterprise for personnel is a rather complicated type of forecast, because it requires taking into account: the level of education, professional skills and abilities of the personnel that the enterprise needs.

In the system of measures to implement the economic reform, special importance is attached to raising the level of work with personnel, putting this work on a solid scientific foundation, and using the experience accumulated over many years of domestic and foreign experience.

Personnel planning is defined as “the process of ensuring that an organization has the right number of qualified personnel hired in the right positions at the right time”. According to another definition, personnel planning is “a system for the selection of qualified personnel, using two types of sources - internal (employees available in the organization) and external (found or attracted from the external environment), which aims to meet the needs of the organization in the required number of specialists in specific time frame".

Personnel planning as one of the important functions of personnel management consists in the quantitative, qualitative, temporal and spatial determination of the need for personnel necessary to achieve the goals of the organization. Personnel planning is based on the development strategy of the organization, its personnel policy. The function of workforce planning is becoming increasingly important in supporting the strategy of the organization, since an accurate consideration of future needs allows a clear orientation in the development of plans for training and work with the reserve. However, it should be noted that the planned economic growth programs of the organization are increasingly not provided with appropriate management personnel, they pay more attention to financing and investment issues.

The relevance of the topic is related to the peculiarities of the Russian mentality, since in our country, if accurate planning is not carried out in the activities of personnel management in accordance with its needs, then this activity is less effective. Only with the proper organization of personnel records and monitoring of the results of the work of employees can high productivity and quality of work be achieved, and as a result, a competitive company.

The concept of personnel risk. Types of personnel risk, their classification

personnel risk probability threat

In practice, modern enterprises, in order to streamline business processes related to personnel, form a personnel management system. An important component of an effectively functioning personnel management system of an organization is the mechanism for managing personnel risks.

Personnel risk - a situation that reflects the danger of an undesirable development of events that directly or indirectly affect the functioning and development of the organization, personnel, society as a whole and the occurrence of which is associated with an objectively existing uncertainty due to a number of reasons: inefficiency of the personnel management system; behavior, action (inaction) of the personnel; external environment of the organization.

Based on the above definition, subjective and objective personnel risks can be distinguished. Objective personnel risks take place regardless of the actions and against the will of the organization's personnel. In the case of subjective personnel risks, the occurrence of any adverse events depends on the actions of a particular employee of the enterprise. Personnel risks occupy an important place in the system of entrepreneurial risks, which is due to a number of their features. First, the direct relationship between the level of personnel risk and the rate of return is not obvious, that is, an increase in the level of personnel risk does not lead to the maximization of the profit function of the enterprise. Secondly, the source or object of personnel risks is the personnel of the organization or an individual employee. Thirdly, the impossibility of fully transferring personnel risks to other market participants.

An approach to the classification of personnel risks has been developed, which reflects the socio-economic essence of personnel risks and allows planning and organizing the process of managing them on a systematic basis.

In modern theory and practice, there is no consistency in solving the issues of classification of personnel risks. At the same time, the reliability of ensuring the security of an organization is directly related to the completeness of ideas about personnel risks, which, in turn, requires an exhaustive, systematically presented classification of personnel risks. The classification of personnel risks, which involves their division into groups according to certain criteria, makes it possible to assess the place of each risk in the overall system and creates potential opportunities for choosing the most effective appropriate methods and risk management techniques.

Based on the foregoing, a classification of personnel risks is proposed in the form of a table.

Table 1. Classification of personnel risks (HR)

By area of ​​localization
Internal risks	External risks
By source of risk
Personnel risks	Risks of the personnel management system
By object of risk
Employee risks	Organizational risks	State risks
According to the systematic manifestation
Systematic risks	Unsystematic risks
By type of activity of the organization
Operational risks	Risks in financial activities	Risks in business activities	Risks in innovation activity	Risks in management, etc.
According to the results of activities
Pure risks	Speculative risks
Possible extent of damage
Local		Significant	Global (strategic)
According to the degree of regularity of potential manifestation
One-time (random) risks	Regular risks	Permanent risks
According to the degree of sensitivity to the CI of various groups of stakeholders
Acceptable Risks	Acceptable Risks	Unacceptable Risks
According to the degree of legitimacy
Justified risks	Unjustified risks
For reasons of occurrence
Accidental (unintentional) risks	Non-random (targeted risks)

Operational risks: causes

Operational risk occupies a special place among the risks of the company and is formulated as the risk of direct and indirect losses due to a distorted construction of business processes, ineffective internal control procedures, technological deviations, unauthorized actions of personnel and external influence. Since these risk-forming factors are partly in the sphere of influence of the company's management, there is a possibility of limited impact on the source of operational risk. For this reason, the main direction in managing the company's operational risks is their minimization, and not optimization, which is typical for other types of risk.

The dominant role in the occurrence of operational risk is played by the internal uncertainty of the company's functioning process, which is associated with the impossibility of accurately predicting human behavior in the process of work (human uncertainty), with the complexity of the technology used, the level of equipment reliability, the pace of technical re-equipment of production, etc. (technical uncertainty) and with the desire of people to form social ties and groups, to behave in accordance with accepted mutual obligations, roles, traditions (social uncertainty).

The potential opportunity to increase the company's competitiveness lies in the area of ​​operational risk management by minimizing the risks associated with the technologies used, but primarily with its own personnel.

The process of managing the company's human resources is continuous and should include: formulating goals, objectives and requirements for personnel, selection and hiring of employees, performance evaluation, development and training, personnel movement, rationalization of the system of labor motivation, remuneration and incentives. It is necessary to take into account the fact that the corresponding risks arise at each stage of the management process, but at the same time there are conditions for their minimization. For example, at the stage of developing requirements for personnel, job risks may arise as a discrepancy between a particular position and the types of activities, functions, goals, tasks, and technologies. The cause of job risk should be sought in the irrational distribution of functional responsibilities in the company's staffing table or in a distorted job description. To minimize this risk, it is necessary to form a reasonable structure of positions, powers and responsibilities and use as a tool not a job description describing the main functions of an employee, but a description (model) of the workplace - the main document, which allows, among other things, to assess whether a candidate is capable of filling a vacant position perform the respective functions.

The management of the company considers a person working at the same time as "economic" (subject to the need to perform assigned work for a certain material reward), "psychological" (psychologically ready to work), "technological" (subject to work operations) and "ethical" (subject to the requirements of professional ethics). At the same time, in the organizational environment, a person working is both “acting” and “communicating”. The “acting” person manifests himself in interactions and counteractions, and the “communicating” person feels himself attached or alienated in the communicative space of the company. Interaction in the organizational environment and the involvement of a person in the organization create conditions for the development of cooperation, and alienation from the organization causes confrontation. The involvement or alienation of a person from the organization is largely the result of his socialization in the organizational environment, which can be of the nature of merging with the environment, cooperation or conflict. merger testifies to the employee's loyalty. Cooperation associated with the need for the employee to enter the organizational environment to participate in joint activities and achieve personal goals, but is not a guarantee of loyalty to the organization. Conflict deprives a person of the possibility of unconditional entry into the organizational environment.

The absence or low level of involvement of an employee in the organization is one of the main reasons for the emergence of personnel risks. Numerous studies of corporate relations indicate that no more than 30% of employees are absolutely loyal to their company, but about 50% of employees are ready for illegal behavior and are able to harm their company if this does not lead to negative consequences for them, and 20% seek in order to satisfy their needs, damage the company even at the risk to themselves. Management practice states that only 20% of unauthorized access to company confidential information is carried out from the outside, and computer networks are hacked equally by independent hackers and disgruntled company employees. About 80% of the material damage to companies is caused by their own personnel.

Operational risks arise from the actions or omissions of the company's personnel. There are three main reasons for their occurrence:

Insufficient (or excessive for individual representatives) level of human capital of personnel;

The human factor as a reflection of the psychological portrait of a person, inadequate to functional or official duties;

· a low level of involvement of a person in the organizational environment as a result of the absence (or unacceptability for all) of a single business culture of the company.

Formation of the company's internal control system

The initial prerequisite for creating an effective mechanism for minimizing all types of operational risk is the formation of an internal control system (HR audit) of the company, which should ensure:

· the unity of the personnel audit system within the organizational structure of the company;

continuous monitoring of the current activities of the company's personnel;

prompt identification and assessment of risk factors;

availability of reliable, timely and complete information for assessing current activities and making decisions.

Due to the fact that the basis of the competitive advantages of any company are its key and unique competencies, reflecting the level of knowledge, skills and abilities of the staff, the system of internal personnel audit contributes to:

• real assessment of the market value of the company;
• assessment of the place in the competitive environment and market prospects of the company;
• improvement of management methods;
• dynamic response to changes in the competitive environment;

· timely release from the "personnel ballast" and the growth of labor productivity.

Building a company's personnel profile

The personnel audit system should be based on the personnel profile of the company, which, based on the understanding of the organization as a socio-technical system, should be built separately for the production and management personnel of the company (business unit). In our opinion, the construction of a company's personnel profile should be based on the theories of a specific idea of ​​the object of motivation by D. McGregor (theories "X" and "Y") and V. Ouchi (theory "Z"). Following these theories, the personnel profile of any company, regardless of the field of activity, the adopted management system, the complexity of the organizational structure, etc. can be represented by three categories of personnel:

• category “X” (resistant workers), unable and unwilling to work;

Confirmation of this assumption is the situational leadership model of Harsey and Blanchard, which operates with the concept of “follower maturity” as the degree to which people have the ability and desire to perform the task set by the leader. The model identifies four stages of follower maturity:

M1 - the group is not able and unwilling to work due to its incompetence or self-doubt;

M2 - the group is not able, but willing to work, having the motivation to act, but not having the skills and abilities;

M3 - the group is able, but unwilling to work, because it is not attracted by the proposed work;

M4 - the group is able and willing to do what the leader suggests to it.

The personnel profile of a company can be considered as a set of four categories of personnel: personnel, personnel, personnel-resource, personnel-capital, in which it is easy to trace the correspondence to the stages of maturity of followers.

Due to the fact that the maturity of a person in a group is a stable characteristic that slowly changes under the influence of investments in human capital, it can be argued that:

• category "X" corresponds to group M1 (personnel);
• category "Y" corresponds to groups M2 and M3 (personnel and personnel-resource);
• category "Z" corresponds to the group M4 (personnel-capital).

A rational personnel profile of the company's personnel should reflect a level of personnel qualification sufficient to perform labor functions and a high degree of motivation for productive work while minimizing the number of employees who are unable and unwilling to work. These features of the group of workers of category "X" are not a stable characteristic, but are inherent in any employee during the period of production and social adaptation to the organizational environment. Qualification and educational risks in this case have the highest probability, but with an insignificant degree of impact due to the fact that the new employee is under the supervision of a mentor and the level of the employee's official influence is extremely low. The main conditions for the successful adaptation of an employee should be to ensure that the employee merges with the group, to overcome the stereotype of avoidant motivation in his mind and to consolidate the patterns of incentive motivation.

The basis of the company's workforce is made up of employees of the "Y" category - these are, as a rule, middle-aged people who actively form their human capital, knowledge and skills. The level of probability and degree of impact of qualification and educational risks in this group have average values.

It is generally accepted that highly qualified workers and senior management personnel should be classified as category “Z” employees who are able and willing to work, and the number of such employees is limited by the list of existing positions in the company's staffing table. Due to high qualifications, the probability of risk in this group is relatively small, but the degree of impact is extremely high. In our opinion, employees of this category are unevenly placed in all levels of the company's management without taking into account fixing in the organizational structure of management. These are people with incentive motivation, mentors and members of the personnel reserve at all levels. In addition, the content of personnel work aimed at preventing personnel risks should contribute to the professional and social development of any employee, instill in him an interest in work, the ability and desire to work. The principle "You know - it means warned" contributes to a positive perception of the technological discipline by the employee, which reduces the likelihood of risk situations. For this reason, the more employees of category “Z” are represented in all divisions of the company at all levels of management, the higher the competitiveness of the company's personnel as a whole.

The method of complex assessment of personnel "assessment center"

To draw up a personnel profile of the company's personnel, you can use a variety of widely tested methods of personnel assessment. Despite the fact that company management has access to numerous evidence-based methods of both initial and subsequent personnel assessments, in Russian practice only a limited part of them are used, primarily interviews and testing. It seems to us that when compiling a risk personnel profile of a company, one should focus on the method of comprehensive personnel assessment, called the “assessment center”. Psychological assessment in the selection and placement of personnel is a relatively new form of work with managerial personnel. A feature of this method is that it allows you to simultaneously solve such specific management tasks as identifying optimal candidates for leadership positions, developing recommendations for improving the leadership style, reducing the risk of losing valuable employees and motivational risks. According to foreign psychologists, the criterion validity of the assessment center reaches 0.75.

The structure of the assessment center includes three groups of methods:

methods of background diagnostics, i.e. diagnostics of common behavioral traits (personality and intelligence tests, tests of interests and achievements, etc.);

Methods focused on "past" behavior (interviews to study attitudes, analysis of bibliographic data, use of the results of observations of what is being evaluated by colleagues from the immediate environment, i.e. analysis of references - judgments of colleagues);

· Methods focused on actual behavior (observation of the behavior of those being assessed in specially created situations - business games, analysis of labor behavior in real activity).

The choice of specific diagnostic indicators, diagnostic methods, evaluation criteria is carried out on the basis of a professiogram (list of requirements) corresponding to a specific job position being evaluated in the organizational structure of the company's management. Professiograms form the system basis of the assessment center and are the basis for designing assessment procedures. The assessment center technology includes the following main methodological steps:

analysis of the requirements put forward by the position (profession) and the preparation of professiograms;

choice of method for making value judgments;

planning and conducting an assessment center;

· aggregation and interpretation of the obtained data.

The results of building a risk personnel profile of the company's personnel make it possible to develop a set of personnel strategies to prevent (minimize) risks. The validity of decisions made on personnel strategies is determined by the use of appropriate risk management methods and a personally oriented system of personnel motivation. Among the well-known methods of risk management, each of which may correspond to a specific personnel strategy, include: evasion (avoidance), transfer, separation, self-insurance, consolidation, localization, diversification, limitation, compensation, warning. In our opinion, in modern Russian conditions, company management should pay special attention to the development and implementation of strategies to prevent (minimize) demographic, qualification, educational and motivational personnel risks.