Summary: The risk of production and economic activity. Investment risks are the probability of unforeseen financial losses According to the level of losses, risks are distinguished

Risk- this is the possibility of an unfavorable situation or an unsuccessful outcome of production and economic or any other activity.

Adverse situation or unfortunate outcome while there may be:

lost profit;
loss (loss of own funds);
no result (neither profit nor loss);
loss of income or profit;
an event that may result in loss or loss of income in the future.

Main characteristics of risks

economic nature. The risk is characterized as economic category occupying a certain place in the system economic concepts associated with the implementation of the economic process of the enterprise. It manifests itself in the sphere of economic activity of the enterprise, is directly related to the formation of its profit and is often characterized by possible economic consequences in the process of implementation.

Objectivity of manifestation. Risk is an objective phenomenon in the activity of an enterprise, i.e. accompanies everything and all areas of its activity. Although a number of risk parameters depend on subjective management decisions, the objective nature of its manifestation remains unchanged.

Probability of occurrence. It is manifested in the fact that a risk event may or may not occur in the course of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. The degree of this probability is determined by the action of both objective and subjective factors, however, the probabilistic nature of financial risk is its constant characteristic.

Uncertainty of consequences. The consequences of a financial and economic transaction depend on the type of risk and may vary in a fairly significant range. In other words, the risk can be accompanied by both financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of its additional income. This characteristic of risk means the non-determinism (lack of patterns in the appearance) of its financial results, primarily the level of profitability of ongoing operations.

Expected adverse effects. Although the consequences of the manifestation of risk can be characterized by both negative and positive indicators of the performance of financial and economic activities, the risk in economic practice is characterized and measured by the level of possible adverse consequences. This is due to the fact that a number of risk consequences determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise, which leads it to bankruptcy (i.e., to irreversible negative consequences for his activities).

Level variability. The level of risk characteristic of a particular operation or for a particular line of business of the enterprise is not unchanged. It changes over time (depends on the duration of the operation, since the time factor has an independent effect on the level of risk, manifested through the level of liquidity of the invested financial resources, the uncertainty of the movement of the loan interest rate on, etc.) and under the influence of other objective and subjective factors which are in constant flux.

Subjectivity of the assessment. Despite the fact that risk as an economic phenomenon has an objective nature, its estimated indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity (unequal assessment of a given objective phenomenon) is determined by different levels completeness and reliability of the information base, qualifications of financial managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

Risk classification

Types of risks by type of hazard:

Technogenic risks are the risks associated with human economic activity (for example, environmental pollution).
natural risks are risks that do not depend on human activity (for example, an earthquake).
Mixed risks- these are risks that represent events, but are associated with human economic activity (for example, a landslide associated with construction work).

Types of risks by areas of manifestation:

Political risks- these are the risks of direct losses and losses or shortfalls in profits due to adverse changes in the political situation in the state or the actions of local authorities.
Social risks are the risks associated with social crises.
Environmental risks are the risks associated with the likelihood of civil liability for damage environment and the life and health of third parties.
Commercial risks are the risks of economic losses arising in any commercial, industrial and economic activity. Commercial risks include financial risks (associated with the implementation of financial transactions) and production risks (associated with the production of products (works, services), the implementation of any types of production activities).
Professional risks are the risks associated with doing professional duties(for example, the risks associated with professional activity doctors, notaries, etc.).

Types of risks according to the possibility of foresight:

Forecasted risks are risks associated with the cyclical development of the economy, the change in the stages of the financial market, the predictable development of competition, etc. The predictability of risks is relative, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon under consideration from the category of risks. For example, inflation risk, interest rate risk and some other types.
Unpredictable risks These are risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. For example, force majeure risks, tax risk, etc.

According to this classification feature, risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

Types of risks by sources of occurrence:

External (systematic or market) risk It is a risk that does not depend on the activities of the enterprise. This risk arises when certain stages of the economic cycle change, the financial market situation changes, and in a number of other cases that the enterprise cannot influence in its activities. This group of risks may include inflation risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, tax risk.
Internal (non-systematic or specific) risk is a risk that depends on the activities of a particular enterprise. It may be associated with unskilled financial management, inefficient asset and capital structure, excessive commitment to risky (aggressive) operations with a high rate of return, underestimation of business partners and other factors, negative consequences which can be largely prevented through effective risk management.

Types of risks by the amount of possible damage:

Tolerable Risk is a risk, the losses on which do not exceed the estimated amount of profit on the operation being carried out.
Critical Risk is the risk, the losses for which do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income for the operation being carried out.
catastrophic risk— this is the risk, the losses on which are determined by the partial or complete loss of own capital (may be accompanied by the loss of borrowed capital).

Types of risks according to the complexity of the study:

simple risk characterizes the type of risk, which is not divided into its individual subspecies. For example, inflation risk.
Complex Risk characterizes the type of risk, which consists of a complex of subspecies. For example, investment risk (the risk of an investment project and the risk of a particular financial instrument).

Types of risks by financial consequences:

The risk entailing only economic losses, carries only negative consequences (loss of income or capital).
Lost profit risk characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned operation (for example, if a credit rating is lowered, an enterprise cannot receive the necessary loan).
Risk entailing both economic losses and additional income (« speculative financial risk inherent, as a rule, speculative financial transactions (for example, the risk of implementing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

Types of risks according to the nature of manifestation in time:

Constant risk characteristic for the entire period of the operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. For example, interest rate risk, currency risk, etc.
Temporary Risk characterizes a risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of implementation financial transaction. For example, the risk of insolvency of the enterprise.

Types of risks according to the possibility of insurance:

Insured risks— these are the risks that can be transferred in the order of external insurance to the relevant insurance companies.
Uninsurable risks— these are risks for which there is no offer of corresponding insurance products in the insurance market.

The composition of the risks of these two groups under consideration is very mobile and is associated not only with the possibility of predicting them, but also with the effectiveness of certain types of insurance operations in specific economic conditions under the prevailing forms. state regulation insurance activity.

Types of risks by frequency of implementation:

high risks are risks that are characterized by a high frequency of occurrence of damage.
Medium risks are risks that are characterized by an average frequency of damage.
Small risks are risks that are characterized by a low probability of occurrence of damage.

Losses of electricity in electrical networks are inevitable, so it is important that they do not exceed an economically justified level. Exceeding the norms of technological consumption indicates problems that have arisen. To remedy the situation, it is necessary to establish the causes of untargeted costs and choose ways to reduce them. The information collected in the article describes many aspects of this difficult task.

Types and structure of losses

Losses mean the difference between the electricity supplied to consumers and actually received by them. To normalize losses and calculate their actual value, the following classification was adopted:

technological factor. It directly depends on the characteristic physical processes, and can change under the influence of the load component, semi-fixed costs, as well as climatic conditions.
Expenses spent on the operation of auxiliary equipment and the provision of the necessary conditions for the work of technical staff.
commercial component. This category includes errors in metering devices, as well as other factors that cause underestimation of electricity.

Below is an average loss graph for a typical power company.

As can be seen from the graph, the largest costs are associated with transmission over air lines (TL), which is about 64% of total number losses. In second place is the effect of corona (ionization of air near the wires of overhead lines and, as a result, the occurrence of discharge currents between them) - 17%.

Based on the presented graph, it can be stated that the largest percentage of non-targeted expenses falls on the technological factor.

The main causes of electricity losses

Having dealt with the structure, let's move on to the reasons that cause misuse in each of the categories listed above. Let's start with the components of the technological factor:

Load losses, they occur in power lines, equipment and various elements of power networks. Such costs directly depend on the total load. This component includes:

Losses in power lines, they are directly related to the strength of the current. That is why, when transmitting electricity over long distances, the principle of increasing by several times is used, which contributes to a proportional decrease in current, respectively, and costs.
Consumption in transformers, which has a magnetic and electrical nature (). As an example, below is a table that provides cost data for voltage transformers of substations in 10 kV networks.

Non-target expenditure in other elements is not included in this category, due to the complexity of such calculations and the insignificant amount of costs. For this, the following component is provided.

Category of semi-fixed expenses. It includes the costs associated with the normal operation of electrical equipment, these include:

Idle operation of power plants.
Costs in equipment providing reactive load compensation.
Other types of costs in various devices, the characteristics of which do not depend on the load. Examples include power insulation, metering devices in 0.38 kV networks, measuring current transformers, surge arresters, etc.

Considering the last factor, the cost of electricity for melting ice should be taken into account.

Substation support costs

This category includes costs electrical energy for functioning auxiliary devices. Such equipment is necessary for the normal operation of the main units responsible for the conversion of electricity and its distribution. Cost fixing is carried out by metering devices. Here is a list of the main consumers belonging to this category:

ventilation and cooling systems for transformer equipment;
heating and ventilation of the technological room, as well as internal lighting devices;
lighting of territories adjacent to substations;
battery charging equipment;
operational chains and control and management systems;
heating systems for outdoor equipment, such as air circuit breaker control modules;
various types of compressor equipment;
auxiliary mechanisms;
equipment for repair work, communications equipment, and other devices.

Commercial component

These costs mean the balance between absolute (actual) and technical losses. Ideally, this difference should tend to zero, but in practice this is not realistic. First of all, this is due to the peculiarities of metering devices for supplied electricity and electricity meters installed at end consumers. It's about error. There are a number of specific measures to reduce losses of this type.

This component also includes errors in invoices issued to consumers and theft of electricity. In the first case, such a situation may arise for the following reasons:

the contract for the supply of electricity contains incomplete or incorrect information about the consumer;
incorrectly indicated tariff;
lack of control over the data of metering devices;
errors related to previously corrected invoices, etc.

As for theft, this problem occurs in all countries. As a rule, unscrupulous household consumers are engaged in such illegal actions. Note that sometimes there are incidents with enterprises, but such cases are quite rare, therefore they are not decisive. Characteristically, the peak of theft falls on the cold season, and in those regions where there are problems with heat supply.

There are three methods of theft (understatement of meter readings):

Mechanical. It means appropriate intervention in the operation of the device. This may be the braking of disk rotation by direct mechanical impact, changing the position of the electricity meter by tilting it by 45° (for the same purpose). Sometimes a more barbaric method is used, namely, the seals are broken, and the mechanism is unbalanced. An experienced specialist will instantly detect mechanical interference.
Electric. This can be as an illegal connection to the overhead line by "surge", a method of investing the phase of the load current, as well as the use of special devices for its full or partial compensation. In addition, there are options with shunting the current circuit of the meter or switching phase and zero.
Magnetic. At this method a neodymium magnet is brought to the body of the induction meter.

Almost all modern metering devices cannot be "deceived" by the methods described above. Moreover, such intervention attempts can be recorded by the device and stored in memory, which will lead to sad consequences.

The concept of loss rate

This term refers to the establishment of economically sound criteria for non-targeted expenditure for a certain period. When normalizing, all components are taken into account. Each of them is carefully analyzed separately. As a result, calculations are made taking into account the actual (absolute) level of costs for the past period and an analysis of various possibilities that allow realizing the identified reserves to reduce losses. That is, the standards are not static, but are regularly reviewed.

Under the absolute level of costs in this case the balance between the transmitted electricity and technical (relative) losses is implied. Process loss standards are determined by appropriate calculations.

Who pays for electricity losses?

It all depends on the defining criteria. If we are talking about technological factors and the costs of supporting the operation of related equipment, then the payment for losses is included in the tariffs for consumers.

The situation is completely different with the commercial component, if the laid down rate of losses is exceeded, the entire economic burden is considered to be the expenses of the company that supplies electricity to consumers.

Ways to reduce losses in electrical networks

You can reduce costs by optimizing the technical and commercial components. In the first case, the following steps should be taken:

Optimization of the scheme and mode of operation of the power grid.
Study of static stability and selection of powerful load nodes.
Reducing the total power due to the reactive component. As a result, the share of active power will increase, which will positively affect the fight against losses.
Load optimization of transformers.
Modernization of equipment.
Various load balancing methods. For example, this can be done by introducing a multi-tariff payment system, in which the cost of kWh is increased during peak hours. This will significantly allow the consumption of electricity during certain periods of the day, as a result, the actual voltage will not “sag” below the permissible norms.

You can reduce business costs in the following ways:

regular search for unauthorized connections;
creation or expansion of units exercising control;
verification of testimony;
automation of data collection and processing.

Methodology and example for calculating electricity losses

In practice, the following methods are used to determine losses:

carrying out operational calculations;
daily criterion;
calculation of average loads;
analysis of the largest losses of transmitted power in the context of days-hours;
access to aggregated data.

Full information on each of the methods presented above can be found in the regulatory documents.

In conclusion, we give an example of calculating costs in a power transformer TM 630-6-0.4. The calculation formula and its description are given below, it is suitable for most types of such devices.

Calculation of losses in a power transformer

To understand the process, you should familiarize yourself with the main characteristics of TM 630-6-0.4.

Now let's move on to the calculation.

on the course "THEORY OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS"

Topic: "The risk of production and economic activity."

1. The concept and types of risk.

1.1 Types of risk.

1.2 Sources of risk.

2. Risk assessment methods.

3. Risk losses. Types of risk losses

4. Risk avoidance methods. Risk localization methods

Risk compensation methods.

6. List of used literature

1. Concept and types of risk

Production and economic activities of enterprises in the conditions market system has some degree of uncertainty, risk. This uncertainty is explained primarily by the fact that the economic situation is subject to random influences, both objective (inflation, rising prices, falling living standards) and subjective. .e. danger of failure, unforeseen losses.

Any system in the process of its development goes through a series of stages - birth, growth, maturity and old age. Naturally, at each stage life cycle system, there is a certain degree of risk in the implementation of the main activity, which depends on many parameters, technical, social, political, etc. And in particular, there is a certain risk relationship with the current system lifecycle studio.

In reliability theory, for example, the so-called failure curve is considered.

Failure is understood as a sudden (unpredictable) malfunction of the system. The failure curve is obtained by statistical processing of data on the functioning of various systems (mechanical, electrical, chemical, technological, electronic, etc.). System failures at different stages are due to various reasons, for example, manufacturing defects, violations of the normal operation of the system, fatigue phenomena in some components of a system or the entire system. Since the failure occurs suddenly, unpredictably, the failure curve can be quite related to the probability of system malfunction (more precisely, to the probability density). To do this, it is enough to divide the failure rate by the average number of system failures that occurred during the entire life of the system.

The main risk factors are uncertainties of various nature inherent in the control object and external conditions that have a significant impact on this object, as well as subjective motivations and reactions of the decision maker.

Entrepreneurial activity is associated with entrepreneurial risk, which means the risk of possible loss of resources and shortfall in income compared to the previously proposed option, designed for the rational use of resources in this form entrepreneurial activity.

Risk is the probability that an entrepreneur will incur losses in the form of additional expenses in excess of the forecast, program of his actions, or receive income below those he expected.

1 .1 Types of risk

In the course of their activities, entrepreneurs are faced with a combination of different types of risks that differ in place and time of occurrence, a combination of external and internal factors affecting their level, and, therefore, in the way they are analyzed and described. The currently existing risk classifications make it possible to divide them into several groups according to different criteria: the time of occurrence, the type of entrepreneurial activity, the factors of occurrence, the nature of accounting, etc.

According to the time of occurrence, risks are divided into retrospective, current and prospective. Analysis of retrospective, i.e. past risks is used mainly in order to carry out a more correct, more accurate assessment of current and, in particular, prospective risks, based on previous experience. Assessment of current risks is used in the operational planning of production, the current management of the company. Perspective risks are considered when choosing the optimal strategic planning enterprise work.

By type of entrepreneurial activity, the following main types of risk are distinguished: commercial, industrial, financial.

Business risk usually manifests itself in commercial activities, which is understood as the process of buying goods at one price for resale at a different price for profit. The entrepreneur acts as a merchant (merchant), selling finished goods purchased by him from other persons to the consumer. In such an entrepreneurship, profit is generated by selling a product at a price higher than the purchase price. As a rule, the process of buying goods and their subsequent resale does not occur simultaneously, but have a gap in time. But since the situation on the goods market is changing, the main reason for commercial risk follows from this - a product bought earlier for sale does not later find demand at a set price.

The seller may not receive the profit that he expected when buying the goods. The reasons for this phenomenon can be very diverse - from seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand and changes in the purchasing potential of the population to natural disasters and much more. It is very difficult to predict the state of consumer demand, since it is almost impossible to take into account all the reasons for its change. Such a dimension of predictable situations leads to fundamentally irremovable uncertainty.

Under the production of goods is understood the process of buying resources (raw materials, materials, semi-finished products, labor, etc.), converting them through a technological process into other goods and selling the latter for profit. At the same time, the entrepreneur, directly using tools and objects of labor, labor force as factors of entrepreneurship, produces products, goods, services, works, information, spiritual values for subsequent sale to the consumer. The production of goods is a more complex process than their resale, since it also includes the transformation of resources (goods) from one material form to another - finished goods. There is also a certain shift in time from the moment of purchase of raw materials, materials and other components necessary for the production of goods, until the moment of release and sale. finished products. In economics, such a time shift is called a time lag.

Thus, production risk includes not only the risk of the seller, but also the risk of the manufacturer, which lies in the fact that the economic situation on the market may change in such a way that the product becomes uncompetitive. At the same time, the cost of production may become such that the price of the goods will be lower than the costs incurred in its production. The reasons for this phenomenon can also be very diverse, for example, an increase in the cost of raw materials, energy resources and transport, natural disasters, a drop in demand for the products offered, etc. But even with a favorable economic situation on the market, poor organization of the technological process can also be the cause of unprofitable production. For example, the creation of excess stocks of raw materials; finished products deadens working capital, which, in turn, worsens the technical and economic performance of production.

Financial activity is a special form of commercial entrepreneurship, in which money and securities sold by the entrepreneur to the consumer (buyer) or provided to him on credit act as the subject of purchase and sale. Financial (or credit and financial) entrepreneurship is, in essence, the sale of Money for others (in particular, the current for the future). financial risk associated with the possibility of loss of financial resources. The main types of financial risks include risks associated with the following factors:

change in the purchasing power of money;

change in demand for the company's products;

attracting borrowed funds as sources of financing;

investment in securities;

capital investments (investment risks).

Consider the financial risk on the example of investment. The purpose of investing money in various enterprises is to make a profit. That's why investment risk represents the risk of the investor in the shortfall or no return (profit) on the invested funds. The entire investment process can be divided into three stages: the development of an enterprise project, its construction and commissioning; production of products; sale of manufactured products for the purpose of making a profit.

At each of these stages, various "failures" are possible, which increase the investor's risk. So, at the design stage, incorrect assumptions are possible that can negate all the advantages of a preliminary business plan.

Thus, when investing, it is not only necessary to model the situation on the market of the manufactured goods, the dynamics of changes in prices for raw materials, materials and other components necessary for the production of goods, but also to predict the state of affairs in the field of construction, science, sociology and some other factors.

According to the factors of occurrence, risks are divided into natural, economic, political, man-made.

natural risks caused by natural disasters and catastrophes of natural origin. Natural disasters - one of the largest - lead to huge human casualties and economic losses. For example, the Spitak earthquake in Armenia in 1988 claimed the lives of about 50 thousand people. More large-scale catastrophes are also known at present, especially in densely populated areas of China, India, Bangladesh, Japan, etc.

Economic risksrisks - These are risks caused by adverse changes in the economy of the enterprise or in the economy of the country. The most common type economic risk is a change in market conditions, an increase in the bank discount rate, leading to an increase in the cost of credit, unbalanced liquidity, incompetent management, etc. Suffice it to recall the default on August 17, 1998, which led to a sharp drop in the entire economy of the country.

Political risks due to the instability of the political situation in the country, affecting business activities (closure of borders, a ban on the export of goods to other countries, military operations on the territory of the country, the actions of extremist and criminal organizations, etc.).

Technogenic risks associated with uncontrolled human intervention in nature. As civilization develops, man-made risks are becoming ever larger. If in the days of ancient Greece the accumulation of manure in the Augean stables, which Hercules cleared by turning the course of the river, was considered a man-made disaster, then in the 20th century. The catastrophe at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant affected the lives of millions of people and vast territories, dozens of times larger in area than ancient Greece.

1.2. Sources of risk

A risk situation is a situation in which the probability of occurrence of events can be determined, i.e. in this case, it is objectively possible to assess the likelihood of events that may affect the technical and economic indicators of production.

The main sources of risk are:

1) unpredictability, spontaneity of natural processes and phenomena. Natural phenomena, especially chemical disasters, are still one of the factors influencing the socio-economic processes in society. Of course, this influence is different for different countries and regions. Agriculture is especially dependent on natural disasters. So, for example, in Russia, almost all agriculture belongs to the zone of risky farming. But, on the other hand, natural disasters such as tornadoes, which cause enormous damage, are practically not known for our climatic zone. agriculture USA;

2) the randomness of social processes. The probabilistic nature of many socio-economic processes, national, religious and even racial differences lead to the fact that similar external conditions lead to various manifestations of social life. For example, the attempts of the leaders of Western countries to "appease" Hitler through the "Munich conspiracy" led to the opposite results - the Second World War;

3) the presence of opposing tendencies, the clash of conflicting interests in market conditions. The mechanism of market development - competition implies from the very beginning the confrontation of various commodity producers. Even in the commodity-money relations of the seller and the buyer, a contradiction can be traced: the seller wants to sell more expensive, and the buyer wants to buy cheaper;

4) the unpredictable nature of scientific and technological progress. The general direction of the development of science and technology, especially for the next period, can be predicted with a certain accuracy. However, it is practically impossible to determine in advance the specific consequences of certain scientific discoveries and technical inventions.

Technological progress is not feasible without risk, due to its probabilistic nature, since the costs and especially the results are stretched and remote in time, they can only be foreseen within certain, usually wide limits.

2. Risk assessment methods

Currently, a number of methods for assessing economic risk are used, which can be conditionally divided into several classes: statistical; analytical; analogy method; method of expert assessments and expert systems.

Statistical Methods used for risk assessment are dispersion, regression and factor analysis. The advantages of this class of methods include their versatility; the disadvantages are due to the very essence of statistical research - the need for a large database, the complexity and ambiguity of the findings, certain difficulties in the analysis of time series, etc. For the purposes of calculating the risks of economic activity, these methods are used relatively rarely. However, in Lately The method of cluster analysis, which is used in the development of business plans, has gained some popularity, when calculating the overall risk ratio based on data obtained by dividing risks into groups.

Analytical Methods are used most frequently. Their advantage lies in the fact that they are quite well developed, easy to understand and operate with simple concepts. These methods include: discounting method, cost recovery analysis, break-even analysis of production, sensitivity analysis, stability analysis.

When using the discounting method, the discount rate is adjusted for the risk factor, which is obtained by the method of expert assessments. The disadvantage of the discounting method is that the measure of risk is determined subjectively.

The application of the sensitivity analysis method involves determining the impact of changes in various factors on the resulting technical and economic indicators of an investment project. Sometimes, instead of sensitivity, the elasticity of the resulting parameter is determined. The sensitivity calculation method is close to one of statistical methods- method of factorial analysis. It also determines the degree of influence of various factors on the resulting indicator.

The stability analysis method determines the change in the main economic indicators project in case of unfavorable changes in various factors (under the stability in the economy is meant the ability of some economic system to maintain its performance after the impact on it of unfavorable factors). For example, the amount of possible profit is being studied when prices for raw materials and materials necessary for the production of a product change.

analogy method assumes that the risk assessment is carried out in accordance with some similar project or economic situation. It is assumed that the economic system within which the project is being implemented also behaves in a similar way.

Method of expert assessments based on intuition on the practical knowledge of specially selected people - experts. In the course of the work, a survey of experts takes place (various survey methods can be used), and on the basis of this survey, a forecast of the enterprise's activities is built. With the proper selection of experts and the optimal organization of their work this method is one of the most accurate and reliable. The whole difficulty lies in the mechanism for selecting experts and organizing their work - eliminating conflict situations between experts, determining the rating of each expert, correctly posing the research question, etc.

Unlike the method of expert assessments, which is based on the intuition of experts, expert systems method is a method based on a special computer software that simulates the actions of a human expert when solving problems in a narrow subject area. The software consists of three parts: database, knowledge base, interface.

The database contains all kinds of information about the object of study. The knowledge base contains rules that describe various situations that arise during the evolution of the object under study. Both the database and the knowledge base are organized according to special rules. interface is special software, which allows a person working with an expert system to ask questions on a subject of interest to him and receive answers simulated by a computer.

The main drawback of the listed risk calculation methods is that they operate with specific, deterministic values of the risk coefficients. The random component of the process of evolution of the economic situation in the market of goods and services is excluded from consideration. Ignoring this component sometimes leads to incorrect results. Thus, for a correct assessment of the risk of financial and economic activity, it is necessary to investigate not only the deterministic change in the market situation, but also its stochastic change, i.e. from deterministic models, one should move on to probabilistic models for predicting the market situation.

3. Risk loss

When assessing entrepreneurial risk, the main emphasis is on the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources in the course of entrepreneurial activity.

When determining risk losses, it is necessary to take into account not the costs of various types of resources - labor, material, financial, which occur during the normal functioning of the enterprise, but random, probable losses that occurred due to unforeseen, unplanned reasons, unpredictable before the start of production activities.

3.1 Types of risk losses

Losses in entrepreneurial activity are most often divided into several components: labor, material, financial, loss of time, special types of losses.

Labor losses are lost working hours due to random unforeseen causes. These losses can be measured both in monetary terms (for example, lost profits) and in special units of measurement: man-hours, man-days, etc.

Material losses represent an increased consumption of raw materials, semi-finished products, heat and electricity compared to the normalized consumption. Since material resources are measured in different units of measurement (tons, kilowatt-hours, etc.), in order to assess the total losses, it is necessary to bring them to a single measurement, i.e. display them in value terms. To do this, all types of material losses must be multiplied by the corresponding price per cypc. After each type of resource has been evaluated, they are all brought together and considered. as general material losses in business activities under risk conditions.

Financial losses are directly related to the shortfall in receipt of funds compared to previously planned. The reasons for this phenomenon may be a shortfall in receiving money from the buyer (accounts receivable), inflation of the national currency, which leads to cheaper money and thus to indirect financial losses, non-repayment of debts from insolvent debtors, random changes in demand and prices for manufactured products, etc.

Waste of time represent a change in the timing of the production process and the timing of the sale of finished products. Losses of time are the most difficult to directly calculate. They can also be interpreted as absolute time losses, i.e. days, weeks, months, and try to evaluate in terms of value in the form of lost profits. However, here, most often, there is some uncertainty, since clear, correct methods for calculating lost profits have not yet been worked out.

TO special types of losses includes all losses that do not fit into the four previous sections, i.e. damage to the health of employees of the enterprise and the population of the region, pollution of the environment, damage to the business reputation of the entrepreneur, distortion of the real results of work, etc. These types of losses are even more difficult to estimate. So, for example, there are still no specific methods for assessing the harm caused to public health and the environment.

Thus, when conducting a risk loss analysis, it is necessary to take into account all losses arising as a result of unforeseen random circumstances. At the same time, it is necessary to identify those risk factors that have the greatest impact on the results of losses. Consequently, the problem of determining losses from risk is reduced to the problem of factor analysis. Here, the total mass of losses acts as the resulting parameter, and the same causes that affect random losses act as independent factors.

The meaning of factor analysis is that, using various methods (chain substitution method, differential method, difference method, etc.), the degree of influence of various factors on the resulting variable is found. In this case, all independent factors change in a certain interval, which leads to a general change in the value of the resulting parameter. Thus, the degree of influence of the deterministic and periodic component of some economic process is estimated. The random component, which actually determines the risk of entrepreneurial activity, in factor analysis not considered.

4. Risk avoidance methods

The easiest way to avoid risk is to refuse it. This method is quite common in practice, it is used, as a rule, by companies that occupy strong positions in the market. Their leaders prefer to act for certain, to avoid risk, not to deal with unreliable counterparties, suppliers, consumers, etc. Such companies often try to avoid innovation risks, investing in the development of new products technological processes, technical directions, in fundamentally new scientific projects.

Another way of avoiding risk, apart from the possibility of eliminating it, is to try to shift the risk to a third party, in particular to Insurance companies. At the same time, the enterprise tries to insure its risky business transaction in such a way that in the future it does not incur losses or ensure their minimum size. However, risk insurance is not always possible. Therefore, the implementation of innovative activities is rarely insured.

4.1 Risk localization methods

These methods are used in cases where it is possible to sufficiently identify and identify the sources of risk. Having determined the economically most dangerous stage or area of activity, you can make it controllable and thus reduce the risk level of the enterprise. Similar methods are used by many large companies, for example, when introducing innovative projects, developing new types of products, the commercial success of which is highly doubtful. As a rule, these are such types of products, the development of which requires intensive R&D or the use of the latest scientific achievements that have not yet been tested by industry. In order to reduce the risk of innovation policy, many companies are trying to make R&D work carried out by subsidiaries "venture" companies or government agencies - universities, institutes, design bureaus etc. It is they who bear the entire risk of developing new directions. And at the same time, the conditions for the effective connection of the scientific and technical potentials of the "parent" company remain. Recently, Western companies have found another way to reduce the risk of innovative activities - this is the use of the scientific and technical potential of Russia and the countries of the former Soviet Union. So, for example, when creating a new commercial aircraft, the American company Gulfstream attracted the Russian Design Bureau named after V.I. Sukhoi, and in order to create a nuclear power plant for their spacecraft, they simply bought a project and a full-scale sample of such a nuclear reactor from a Russian company for a symbolic sum of $ 9 million.

4.2 Risk compensation methods

Compensation methods are the most time-consuming methods of risk reduction, but also the most effective. The essence of the method is to periodically develop development scenarios and assess the future state of the enterprise and its external environment management. The method requires special preliminary analytical work, the completeness, correctness and thoroughness of which determine the effectiveness of its application. This method resembles a game of chess, in which it is impossible to calculate all possible variants of the game, but the most probable ones are quite a feasible task. The risk compensation method is referred to as preemptive management methods, in which the use of the activities of a strategic planning enterprise takes place. Strategic planning is understood as a full-scale study of the potential of an enterprise, forecasting the external economic situation, periodically developing development scenarios and assessing the future state of the business environment for a given enterprise, predicting the behavior of possible partners or the actions of competitors. The data obtained as a result make it possible to catch new trends in the relationship of economic entities, prepare in advance for regulatory innovations, provide for the necessary measures to compensate for losses from changes in the rules of doing business, and adjust tactical and strategic plans on the go.

5. Conclusions

Risk is an integral part of entrepreneurial activity. The risk is assessed as the probability of losses resulting from either additional costs or a decrease in the volume of output compared to the expected one.

It will never be possible to completely eliminate risk within a market system. The cause of the risk is insufficiently complete information about all socio-economic, political, natural, man-made and other processes occurring in the human community.

Taking into account the risk factor in the estimated and prognostic calculations requires knowledge of the classification of types of risk, which differ in time, factors, scope of occurrence, nature of accounting.

When conducting business activities, it is important not to avoid risk, but to try to reduce it, to correlate possible losses and profits. To do this, it is very important to be able to calculate the probabilities of risky operations, as well as possible losses from risk.

6. List of used literature:

1. Theory of economic analysis / ed. N.P. Lyubushina- M., 2006

2. Theory of economic analysis / Textbook / M.I. Bakanov- M., 2001

3. Economic theory / Textbook / Ed. A.I. Dorynina and others.- St. Petersburg: Peter, 1999

4. Economic analysis: situations, tests, examples, tasks, choice of optimal solutions, financial forecasting / Uch. allowance / Ed. M.I. Bakanova- M., 2001

Exposure (exposure) to material losses - both actual and potential - leads to costs both in an individual organization (firm) and in the economy as a whole. These costs can be classified into three broad categories:
property, income, people's lives and other values that are completely or partially lost in accidents;
economic and social omissions as a result of the effect of excessive avoidance of potential losses and non-receipt of potential benefits due to non-participation in areas of activity and projects unreasonably (intuitively) assessed as high-risk;
expenses (resources) spent on risk management (cost of risk management).
All three categories of costs can be significantly reduced through the correct use of funds for the third of the mentioned categories - the cost of risk management. With the proper use of these funds, a system should be created that will systematically reduce losses in all categories, both for individual organizations and for the economy as a whole.
The benefits to a firm of a good risk management program are cost savings by reducing the loss of existing assets in operations that the firm has already mastered, and increasing revenues through conscious participation in those activities. profitable directions businesses that intuitively seem too risky. Reducing the cost of risks includes:
- reduction of accidental losses that are not compensated by insurance or from other sources;
reduction of insurance premiums and other payments for the use of reserves and insurance funds;
reducing the cost of preventive measures to reduce or prevent accidental losses;
reduction of administrative costs for the risk management system.
Central to the assessment of entrepreneurial risk is the analysis and
forecasting possible losses of resources in the course of entrepreneurial activity. This does not mean the expenditure of resources, objectively determined by the nature and scale of entrepreneurial actions, but random, unforeseen, but potentially possible losses arising from deviation real move entrepreneurship from the intended scenario.
In order to assess the probability of certain losses due to the development of events according to an unforeseen option, one should, first of all, know all types of losses associated with entrepreneurship and be able to calculate them in advance or measure them as probable forecast values. At the same time, it is natural to want to quantify each type of loss and be able to bring them together, which, unfortunately, is not always possible to do. One important circumstance must be kept in mind here. A random development of events that affects the course and results of entrepreneurship can lead not only to losses in the form of increased resource costs and a decrease in the final result. It can cause an increase in the costs of one type of resource and a decrease in the costs of another type, i.e. along with the increased costs of some resources, savings of others can be observed.
If a random event has a double effect on final results entrepreneurship, has adverse and favorable consequences, then the risk assessment should equally take into account both of them. In other words, when determining the total possible losses, the gain that accompanies them should be subtracted from the calculated losses.
It is advisable to divide the losses that may be in entrepreneurial activity into material, labor, financial, time losses, and special types of losses. Material types of losses are manifested in additional costs unforeseen by the entrepreneurial project or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. In relation to each individual of the listed types of losses, their own units of measurement are used. It is most natural to measure material losses in the same units in which the amount of a given type of material resources is measured, i.e. in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc.
However, it is not possible to bring together the losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You can not add kilograms and meters. Therefore, the calculation of losses in value terms, in monetary units, is inevitable. To do this, losses in the physical dimension are converted into a cost dimension by multiplying by the unit price of the corresponding material resource. For material resources, the cost of which is known, the losses can immediately be estimated in monetary terms. Having an estimate of the probable losses for each of the individual types of material resources in terms of value, it is realistic to bring them together, while observing the rules for dealing with random variables and their probabilities.
Labor losses represent the loss of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In direct measurement, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days, or simply hours of working time. The translation of labor losses into value, monetary terms is carried out by multiplying labor hours by the cost (price) of one hour.
Financial losses are direct monetary losses associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes,
loss of money and securities. In addition, financial losses may occur in the event of a shortfall or non-receipt of money from the provided sources, in case of non-repayment of debts, non-payment by the buyer of the products supplied to him, a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products and services sold. Special types of monetary damage are associated with inflation, changes in the exchange rate of the ruble, additional to the legal withdrawal of funds from enterprises to the state (republican, local) budget. Along with irretrievable losses, there may also be temporary financial losses caused by the freezing of accounts, untimely disbursement of funds, and deferment of debt payments.
Lost time exists when the business process is slower than planned. A direct assessment of such losses is carried out in hours, days, weeks, months of delay in obtaining the intended result. In order to translate the assessment of time losses into a cost measurement, it is necessary to establish what losses of income, profits from entrepreneurship can lead to random losses of time.
Special types losses take place in the form of damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur, as well as due to other adverse social and moral and psychological consequences. Most often, special types of losses are extremely difficult to quantify, especially in value terms. For each of the types of losses, the initial assessment of the possibility of their occurrence and magnitude is made for certain time, covering the month, year, period of operation of the business. When conducting a comprehensive analysis of probable losses for risk assessment, it is important not only to identify all sources of risk, but also to identify which sources prevail.
It is necessary to further divide the probable losses into defining and incidental. When assessing entrepreneurial risk, collateral losses can be excluded in a quantitative assessment of the level of risk. If one type is singled out among the losses under consideration, which is either in magnitude or in probability of occurrence, obviously greater than the others, then only it can be taken into account when quantifying the level of risk.
In principle, it is necessary to take into account only random losses that are not amenable to direct calculation, direct forecasting and therefore not taken into account in an entrepreneurial project. If losses can be foreseen in advance, then they should not be considered as losses, but as unavoidable expenses and be included in the estimated cost. So, the expected movement of prices, taxes, their change in the course of economic activity, the entrepreneur must take into account in the business plan.
Only due to the imperfection of the methods used to calculate business activity or insufficiently deep study of the business plan, systematic errors can be considered as losses in the sense that they can change the expected result for the worse. Therefore, before assessing the risk due to the action of purely random factors, it is highly desirable to separate the systematic component of the loss from the random ones.
Let us consider in more detail the structure of losses depending on the type of entrepreneurial activity, i.e. industrial, commercial and financial entrepreneurship. Let us characterize some specific sources of losses and the factors influencing them. These should include:
losses from the impact of unforeseen political factors that generate political risk, which manifests itself in the form of an unexpected change in the conditions of economic activity due to political considerations and events, which creates an unfavorable background for the entrepreneur and thus can lead to increased costs
resources and loss of income. Typical sources of such a risk are an increase in tax rates, the introduction of compulsory deductions, changes in contractual terms, the transformation of forms and relations of ownership, the alienation of property and funds for political reasons. The magnitude of possible losses and the degree of risk determined by them is very difficult to foresee;
losses due to natural disasters, as well as theft and racketeering;
losses caused by the imperfection of the methodology and the incompetence of persons who form a business plan and calculate profits and income. If, as a result of the action of such factors, the expected values of profit and income from an entrepreneurial project are overestimated, and the actual results obtained are lower, then the difference is perceived as a loss. But, in reality, if the nominal values of profit (income) were determined correctly, the threat of such losses could not be taken into account. If there was an overestimation of the estimated profit, then its "shortage" will certainly be considered damage, and the risk of such losses exists;
losses of the entrepreneur due to dishonesty or insolvency of partners. The risk of being deceived in a transaction or facing the debtor's insolvency, debt irrecoverability, unfortunately, is quite real in Russia.
It is almost impossible to completely avoid risk, but knowing the source of losses, a businessman is able to reduce their threat, reduce the impact of adverse factors. Let us characterize the losses, the potentiality of which generates entrepreneurial risk particularly in the manufacturing business.
Decrease in the planned volumes of production and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime or underutilization production capacity, loss of working time, lack of the required amount source materials, an increased percentage of marriage leads to a shortfall in planned revenue. Probable losses in this case in terms of value are determined by the product of the probable total decrease in the volume of output and the selling price of a unit of volume of production.
A decrease in prices at which it is planned to sell products due to insufficient quality, an unfavorable change in market conditions, a drop in demand, price inflation leads to probable losses determined by the product of a probable decrease in the price of a unit of output by the total volume of products planned for production and sale.
Increased material costs, due to the overspending of materials, raw materials, fuel, energy, lead to losses determined by the product of the probable overspending of a material resource for each type by the price of a resource unit. Other increased costs may be due to high transport costs, sales costs, overheads and other incidental costs. An overspending of the planned value of the wage fund is possible due to an excess of the estimated number or due to a payment higher than planned, wages employees. It is also possible to pay increased deductions and taxes, if in the process of business the rates of deductions and taxes change in an unfavorable direction for the entrepreneur. The possibility of losses in the form of fines, natural attrition, and natural disasters should also not be overlooked, although it is very difficult to account for such losses in a calculated way.
There are also losses in business. Thus, an unfavorable change (increase) in the purchase price of goods in the process of implementing an entrepreneurial project, not blocked by the terms of an agreement on
purchase leads to losses determined by the product of the volume of purchases of goods in the physical dimension by the probable increase in the purchase price. An unexpected decrease in the volume of purchases in comparison with the planned one causes a decrease in the volume of sales. The loss of profit (income) is calculated in this case as the product of the decrease in the volume of purchases by the amount of profit (income) attributable to a unit of volume of sales of goods. It should be borne in mind that a decrease in the volume of purchases and sales may be accompanied by a decrease in costs, because, in addition to the so-called conditionally fixed costs, there are costs proportional to the volume of the operation.
Also important are the loss of goods in the process of circulation (transportation, storage) or loss of quality, consumer value of the goods, leading to a decrease in its value. The level of such damage is established as the product of the quantity of lost goods by the purchase price or the product of the damaged quantity of goods by the reduction in the selling price. An increase in distribution costs in comparison with the planned ones leads to an adequate decrease in income and profit. Among possible causes cost increases may be unforeseen fees, deductions, fines, additional costs. A decrease in the price at which the product is sold, compared with the design one, causes a loss in the amount of the volume of sales multiplied by the decrease in price. A decrease in the volume of sales due to a drop in demand or need for a product, its displacement by competing products, restrictions on sale, can cause loss of income and profit, measured by the product of the volume of unsold products by the selling price.
Sometimes the losses in financial entrepreneurship are quite serious. Financial entrepreneurship, in fact, is the same commercial one, but the goods in this case are money, securities, and currency. Therefore, losses generally characteristic of commercial enterprise inherent in financial entrepreneurship. But when assessing financial risk, it is necessary to take into account such specific factors as the insolvency of one of the agents of a financial transaction, changes in the exchange rate of money, currency, securities, restrictions on foreign exchange and monetary transactions, possible withdrawal of a certain part of financial resources in the course of business activities.
Therefore, the financial risk that arises in the sphere of enterprise relations with banks and other financial institutions is especially important for the conditions of Russia. The financial risk of a company's activities is usually measured by the ratio of borrowed funds to its own: the higher this ratio, the more the company depends on creditors, the more serious the financial risk, since the restriction or termination of lending, tightening of credit conditions usually entails difficulties and even stops production due to lack of raw materials, materials, etc. For the securities market, riskiness is a property of almost any transaction due to the fact that the effectiveness of the transaction is not fully known at the time of its conclusion. Some exceptions are government interest-bearing paper. But if you take into account the unpredictability of inflation or exchange rates, then the absence of risk, even in relation to US Treasury bills, is questionable.
In charge financial manager includes ensuring the reduction of all types of risk, and not just financial, since there are no clear boundaries between the various areas of the enterprise. risk and return in financial management considered as two interrelated categories. They can be associated with any separate view assets, and with their combination.
So, let's characterize the losses, the potential possibility of which gives rise to entrepreneurial risk.