DIVERSIFICATION This is one way to reduce risk and gain additional confidence, but it is available only to those who have significant resources. Diversification involves the development of new areas of activity that are not typical for this company. For example,

Diversification

In 2015-2016 there were contradictory and at the same time important shifts in the dynamics of Russian exports. The general trend is to reduce export volumes while diversifying its structure. Such a decrease is understandable in the context of a slowdown in the global economy and an increase in geopolitical tensions, as a result, the demand for goods and, accordingly, their prices are falling. This also explains the diversification of exports, since prices for fuel and energy products and metals fell much more than for other commodity groups. As a result, since 2014, the share of exports of fuel and energy products has been steadily declining (from 72% in 2014 to less than 60% in 2016), while the share of other commodity groups has been growing (agriculture, chemical and light industry, textiles, machinery and equipment manufacturing).

The decrease in the total value of exports in non-energy industries occurred at a slower pace, while in some industries in January-September 2016 an increase was observed compared to the same period of the previous year (see table). The volume of exports of agricultural products equaled the export of arms and even exceeded it. As a result, the Russian export basket is diversifying. Export diversification coefficient for 2014-2016 doubled (Fig. H) 15 .

Changes in the commodity structure of exports and imports of the Russian Federation in 2014-2016 (in % of total)

* Data for January-October. Sources: FCS of Russia (official website, section " Customs statistics foreign trade",

The situation with exports reflects a problem typical of contemporary crisis development, the contradiction between short-term and long-term objectives of economic growth. The decline in exports is undoubtedly an unpleasant phenomenon that negatively affects current growth and budget opportunities. However, its diversification lays the foundations for a stable economic dynamics and sustainability of the budgetary system in the medium term. Of course, provided that the government and business can take advantage of the emerging circumstances and ensure the growth of the competitiveness of non-primary industries, not relying only on the advantages of a low exchange rate (see: Kadochnikov et al., 2016).

At the turn of 2016-2017. The recession in Russia is over. There has been a primary adaptation of the domestic economy to the new economic and political realities, which, apparently, will be of a long-term nature. However, the end of the recession is not the same as the end of the global crisis or the solution of the structural problems of the Russian economy. All the main negative factors influencing the socio-economic dynamics remain in force. The period of turbulence in the world economy continues, and it will present the governments of leading countries, including Russia, with new challenges. challenging tasks. Moreover, they are more complex than those that had to be addressed at the previous stage of anti-crisis policy and adaptation.

At the same time, the complexity of the tasks does not mean that their solution should be more painful from a social point of view. We are talking about the intellectual complexity of developing measures that would ensure sustainable economic growth in the medium and long term, as well as the political complexity of consolidating forces (interest groups) for the implementation of this program.

In a concentrated form, the economic and political task for the coming period was formulated by the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin at the end of 2016 in his message to the Federal Assembly: to ensure the development of the Russian economy at a rate exceeding the world average. This is a fairly accurate definition that allows one to move away from specifying absolute desirable growth rates: since the Russian economy is deeply integrated into the world economy, its growth rate cannot be formed independently of global growth. At the same time, the current level of Russia's socio-economic development makes it possible in the foreseeable future to focus on just such a pace. The task of developing such a program was set in December for the government of the Russian Federation, and above all for the Ministry of Economic Development. The contours of this program are fairly well known 16 . However, it is necessary to fill it with a system of specific measures that go far beyond the scope of the economic sphere itself.

At present, the understanding has become universal that it is possible to solve the strategic tasks of Russia's development only with a comprehensive modernization of the economy, public administration, social policy and law enforcement.

The government decided on priority projects around which it began to build a policy to stimulate growth. These include healthcare, education, mortgages and rental housing, international cooperation and exports, labor productivity, small business and support for individual entrepreneurial initiatives, reform of control and supervisory activities, free and high-quality roads, single-industry towns, and the environment. For their implementation, a special Presidential Council for strategic development and priority projects. With more specificity, these sections should form the sectoral and institutional basis of the economic growth strategy. However, when developing measures in each of these areas, it is important to overcome the traditional approaches of the pre-crisis period and look at them from the point of view of Lately new realities.

The specificity of the past year was also the fact that several groups of economists began to work on a long-term program (strategy) of socio-economic development. Relevant tasks were assigned to the Presidential Council for Strategic Development and Priority Projects, the Center strategic developments headed by the Deputy Chairman of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation A.L. Kudrin, as well as in front of a group of entrepreneurs and economists headed by business ombudsman B. Yu. Titov, united under the auspices of the Stolypin Club. All of them must submit their proposals in 2017, which, among other things, will become an element of the upcoming presidential election campaign. Then it will be possible to comparative analysis these programs. A difficult period is ahead, which will require both flexibility and consistency of course from the authorities. Flexibility in responding to new challenges, consistency in solving fundamental (if not age-old) tasks of comprehensive (not only economic) modernization of Russia.

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION - an increase in the number of types and names of products and services intended for export. As a result of EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, better conditions are created for economic maneuvering, opportunities are expanded to overcome the negative impact on the economy of an unfavorable economic situation, incl. worsening "terms of trade". At the present stage, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION is associated with an accelerated renewal of the range of exported products under the influence of scientific and technological revolution.

Glossary of financial terms.

Export diversification

Export diversification - an increase in the number of types and types of products and services intended for export. Export diversification creates conditions for economic maneuvering, expands the possibilities of overcoming the negative impact on the economy of unfavorable economic conditions.

In English: Diversification of export

Finam Financial Dictionary.

See what "EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION" is in other dictionaries:

English diversification of exports expansion of the range of export goods and services to increase the effectiveness of exports. The best results are achieved by increasing the share of machinery, equipment, finished products or semi-finished products ... Glossary of business terms

Export diversification Encyclopedia of Law

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION Legal Encyclopedia

Expansion of the number of types and names of products and services intended for export ... Encyclopedic Dictionary of Economics and Law

Export diversification- expanding the product range of exports ... Terminological dictionary of a librarian on socio-economic topics

Export diversification- (from lat. diversus different + facere to do; eng. diversification of export) increase in the number of types and names of products and services intended for export ... Big Law Dictionary

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION

increase in the number of types and names of products and services intended for export. As a result of EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, better conditions are created for economic maneuvering, opportunities are expanded to overcome the negative impact on the economy of an unfavorable economic situation, incl. worsening terms of trade. At the present stage, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION is associated with an accelerated renewal of the range of exported products under the influence of scientific and technological revolution.

Dictionary of financial terms. 2012

See also interpretations, synonyms, word meanings and what is EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION in Russian in dictionaries, encyclopedias and reference books:

• EXPORT
  DIVERSIFICATION. see EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION...
• DIVERSIFICATION
  an increase in the number of industries and the range of goods (services) produced by individual enterprises in new to them ...
• EXPORT in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  PROMOTION - see EXPORT PROMOTION...
• EXPORT in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  AND IMPORT STRUCTURE - see EXPORT AND IMPORT STRUCTURE ...
• EXPORT in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  AND IMPORT QUOTATION AND LICENSING - see QUOTATION AND LICENSING OF EXPORT AND IMPORT ...
• EXPORT in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS (SELF-LIMITATIONS) - see VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS (SELF-LIMITATIONS) ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  EXPORT - expansion of the number of types and names of products intended for export and ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  HORIZONTAL - see HORIZONTAL DIVERSIFICATION...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  (from lag. diversus - different and facere - to do) - 1) distribution of invested or loaned money capital between various objects ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Big Encyclopedic Dictionary:
  (from medieval Latin diversificatio - change in diversity), 1) the penetration of firms into industries that do not have a direct production connection or functional dependence ...
• DIVERSIFICATION
  (Late Latin diversificatio - change, diversity, from Latin diversus - different and facio - I do), one of the forms of capital concentration. Diversifying…
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Modern Encyclopedic Dictionary:
  
• DIVERSIFICATION
  (in medieval Latin diversificatio - change, diversity), 1) penetration of companies, banks through investments, purchases of shares, systems of participation in the industry, not ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Encyclopedic Dictionary:
  and, pl. no, well .. special. Diversified development of production, aimed at expanding the range of manufactured …
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Big Russian Encyclopedic Dictionary:
  DIVERSIFICATION (from the Middle Ages, Latin diversificatio - change, diversity), the penetration of firms into industries that do not have direct production. relationship or functional dependency…
• DIVERSIFICATION in the New Dictionary of Foreign Words:
  (lat. diversus different + facere do) diversity, diversified development; production - the simultaneous development of many, not related to each other ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Foreign Expressions:
  [lat. diversus different + facere do] diversity, diversified development; production - the simultaneous development of many, not related to each other ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the dictionary of Synonyms of the Russian language:
  change, …
• DIVERSIFICATION in the New explanatory and derivational dictionary of the Russian language Efremova:
  and. 1) Expansion of the scope of activities in the production of products by increasing its range (in the economy). 2) Refusal of narrow specialization ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of the Russian Language Lopatin:
  diversification, ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Complete Spelling Dictionary of the Russian Language:
  diversification...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Spelling Dictionary:
  diversification, ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Modern Explanatory Dictionary, TSB:
  (from medieval Latin diversificatio - change, diversity), 1) the penetration of firms into industries that do not have a direct production connection or functional dependence ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Explanatory Dictionary of Efremova:
  diversification 1) Expansion of the scope of activities in the production of products by increasing its range (in the economy). 2) Refusal of the narrow ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the New Dictionary of the Russian Language Efremova:
  and. 1. Expansion of the scope of activities in the production of products by increasing its range (in the economy). 2. Refusal of narrow specialization ...
• DIVERSIFICATION in the Big Modern Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language:
  and. 1. Expansion of the scope of activities in the production of products by increasing its range (in the economy). 2. Rejection...
• PRODUCTION DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
  (activities) the transition from a one-sided, often based on only one product, production structure, to a multi-profile production with a wide range of manufactured ...
• PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
  one of the forms of competition in a modern market economy. It is expressed in the production of a significant number of modifications of the same ...
• DIVERSIFICATION OF INVESTMENTS in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
  the distribution of the investor's capital between different securities. In world practice, it is customary to limit investments in each type of securities to 10 percent ...
• ROBERT KIYOSAKI at Wiki Quote:
  Data: 2009-03-01 Time: 00:01:37 * Rich dad often asked Mike and me the question, “If you had nothing…
• NINTENDO in Encyclopedia Japan from A to Z:
  (Nintendo Co., Ltd.) is a Japanese company widely known as a manufacturer of home video games and related equipment. The company was founded in 1947…
• EXPORT in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
  export abroad of goods, services and capital for sale in foreign markets. There are EXPORT of goods, i.e. export of material goods, reimbursable ...
• CURRENCY MARKETS in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
  a system of socio-economic and organizational relations for the sale and purchase of foreign currencies and payment documents in foreign currencies. CURRENCY MARKETS serve as a mechanism through...
• CONTROL in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  RISK - the activity of the enterprise. firms, banks, aimed at reducing possible losses conditioned by risk. The most common methods U r. are diversification...
• HORIZONTAL in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
  DIVERSIFICATION - expanding the range, composition of products through the production of new products that differ from already ...
• JAPAN in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  (Japanese: Nippon, Nihon). I. General information Japan is a state located on the islands of the Pacific Ocean, near the coast of East Asia. As part of…
• YUGOSLAVIA
• SWEDEN in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB.
• FINLAND in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  (Suomi), Republic of Finland (Suomen Tasavalta). I. General information F. v state in the north of Europe. It borders on the USSR in the east (length ...
• TRADE BALANCE in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  balance, a balance that reflects the ratio of the value of a country's exports and imports over a certain period (usually a year). It includes…
• SUDAN (STATE) in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  Democratic Republic of Sudan I. General Information S. is a state in Northeast Africa. It borders on the north with ...
• THE USSR. FOREIGN TRADE AND FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  trade and foreign economic relations Foreign trade Development of foreign trade. Russia's foreign trade reflected the nature of its economy. Leading role in...
• NIGERIA in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  (Nigeria), Federal Republic of Nigeria. I. General information N. is a state in West Africa, in the basin of the lower ...
• COSTA RICA in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  (Costa Rica), the Republic of Costa Rica (Republica de Costa Rica), a state in Central America. It borders Nicaragua in the north, and Nicaragua in the southeast. - ...
• INDONESIA in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  (Indonesia), Republic of Indonesia (Republik Indonesia). I. General information I. - the state in South-East Asia. Located on the islands of the Malay (Indonesian) archipelago, ...
• INDIA in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  (in Hindi - Bharat); official name of the Republic of India. I. General information I. - a state in South Asia, in the basin ...
• INTERNATIONAL TRADE in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
  trade, trade of one country with other countries, consisting of import (import) and export (export) of goods. V. t. of different countries ...
• UNITED KINGDOM (STATE) in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB.

Diversification is a necessary direction for the development of Russian exports

VL. Seltsovsky

An important indicator of the effective development of foreign trade is its commodity structure, i.e. share in exports and imports of individual commodity groups. In this regard, the study and analysis of the commodity structure are important and are carried out on the basis of grouped commodity groups according to the commodity nomenclature. foreign economic activity Russia.

Raise economic efficiency foreign trade on the basis of increasing the share of goods with a deeper degree of industrial processing in exports, primarily engineering products, and optimizing imports is one of the most pressing and complex development problems foreign economic relations Russia. This problem was acute even in Soviet times. Despite the implementation of some positive changes in the structure of Soviet exports, the tasks of improving it were solved slowly.

Current export structure Russian Federation has a one-sided character. Our export is highly dependent on a relatively narrow range of goods - oil, oil products, gas, metals, timber products. Moreover, the raw material orientation of our country's exports noticeably increased in the 1990s and 2000s, i.e. in the post-Soviet period, which is clearly seen from Table 1.

So, in 2007 only specific gravity fuel and energy products (oil, oil products, gas, coal, electricity) exceeded 68%; about 17% of all exports are for metals; products of the chemical industry

wares account for 5% in exports, timber products - over 3%. Thus, the share of fuel, raw materials and semi-finished products is currently more than 90% of the export of the Russian Federation to non-CIS countries.

The share of machinery and equipment in exports to non-CIS countries at current prices decreased significantly in the 1990s and 2000s, and in 2007, even taking into account military-technical supplies, it amounted to only 3.4% (the share of civil engineering products - 2%). The share of finished products does not even reach 10%. In 1990, the share of machinery and equipment in the export of the Russian Federation without military-technical cooperation was 17.6%, and the share of finished products was 33%. For the period 1991-2007. export of machinery and equipment of the Russian Federation decreased by 20%. The structure of Russia's foreign trade with individual trading partners from the group of developed countries is even more raw and one-sided.

Such an indicator of the share of machinery and equipment is unacceptably small for a developed country. In general, the share of machinery and equipment in world exports is currently about 40%.

The share of exports of Russian machinery and equipment in world exports of these products was only 0.4% in 2007, compared with 2.7% of the share of all Russian exports in world exports. Domestic exports of machinery and equipment in 2006 were 25 times lower than those of the United States, 10 times the Republic of Korea, 8 times Singapore, 4 times Malaysia and 6 times

Taiwan1.

Table 1

Commodity structure of exports of the Russian Federation to non-CIS countries (outside the CIS)

in actual (current) prices

Export - total 71.1 100.0 63.7 100.0 62.2 100.0 89.2 100.0 208.8 100.0 258.9 100.0 299.9 100.0

Machinery, equipment and vehicles 12.6 17.6 5.3 8.3 6.0 9.6 6.7 7.5 7.6 3.6 10.0 3.9 10.1 3.4

Mineral products 32.3 45.5 25.8 40.5 27.1 43.5 48.7 54.5 141.4 67.7 178.7 69.0 205.2 68.4

Metals, precious stones and articles thereof 9.2 12.9 19.5 30.8 18.1 29.2 20.9 23.5 36.5 17.5 43.6 16.8 49.3 17 .6

Products of the chemical industry 3.3 4.6 6.3 9.9 5.1 8.2 6.0 6.7 11.4 5.5 13.0 5.1 16.1 5.4

Wood and paper products 3.1 4.4 3.9 6.1 3.4 5.5 4.1 4.5 7.1 3.4 8.0 3.1 10.1 3.4

Textiles, textile products and footwear (clothing and footwear) 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1

Raw hides, furs and products made from them 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1

Food products and agricultural raw materials 1.5 2.1 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.3 1.1 2.8 1.1 5.4 1.8

Other 8.4 11.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 0.9 2.1 0.8 3.1 1.0

Sources: Russian Statistical Yearbook. 1998, 2002, 2005 - M.: Goskomstat of Russia 1998, 2002; Russia in figures, 2002, 2003 - M.: Goskomstat of Russia, 2002, 2003; Customs statistics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation. 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007.

As already noted, the low coefficient of structural specialization of engineering products, as well as the fact that in 2006 Russia accounted for 6% of world steel production, while Russia's share in world exports of machinery and equipment accounted for only 0.3%. For comparison, you can

It should be noted that the share of France in world steel production is 3%, while the share in world exports of machinery and equipment is 5%.

As for the USA, Japan, Germany, the share of these countries in world steel production at the beginning of 2000 was (%): USA - 14, Japan - 14, Germany - 6; the share of these countries in world exports of machinery and equipment in

2006 respectively was (%): 11, 10 and 122.

table 2

The commodity structure of exports of the Russian Federation to the CIS in the actual

(current) prices

Product group 1990 1995 1999 2000 2005 2006 2007

USD bln % of total USD bln % of total USD bln % of total USD bln % of total USD bln % of total USD bln % of total USD bln % of total

Export - total 13.9 100.0 14.5 100.0 10.7 100.0 13.8 100.0 32.6 100.0 42.3 100.0 52.6 100.0

Machinery, equipment and vehicles 2.4 17.3 2.7 18.3 2.0 18.6 2.4 17.0 5.9 18.2 7.4 17.6 9.6 18.3

Mineral products 7.3 52.7 7.5 51.4 5.6 52.5 6.8 4.1 15.0 46.0 19.9 47.1 23.1 43.9

Metals, precious stones and articles thereof 1.2 8.7 1.4 9.5 0.9 8.3 1.4 10.4 4.1 12.6 5.4 12.7 7.4 14.0

Chemical industry products 1.3 9.6 1.5 10.8 1.1 10.1 1.4 10.2 2.9 9.0 3.7 8.8 4.7 9.0

Wood and pulp and paper products 0.5 3.2 0.5 3.3 0.3 2.7 0.4 3.0 1.2 3.5 1.5 3.6 2.1 4.0

Textiles, textile products and footwear (clothing and footwear) 0.4 2.9 0.3 2.3 0.2 1.8 0.3 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 1.4 0.6 1.1

Raw hides, furs and products made from them 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Food products and agricultural raw materials 0.5 3.7 0.4 2.8 0.5 4.3 0.7 5.3 2.2 6.8 2.7 6.3 3.7 7.1

Other 0.3 1.8 0.2 1.5 0.1 1.5 0.4 2.7 0.7 2.2 1.0 2.4 1.3 2.5

Sources: Russian Statistical Yearbook. 1998; 2002; 2005; Russia in Figures 2002, 2005; Customs statistics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007.

The structure of Russian exports to neighboring countries (CIS) is generally more progressive in comparison with Russia's trade with non-CIS countries (Table 2). At the same time, in the long term, there are no prerequisites for increasing the share of finished goods in Russia's exports to the CIS countries. Russian deliveries of military equipment to these countries are falling.

In addition, there, apparently, the demand for Russian civil engineering products has decreased for a long time, as countries prefer to have relations with suppliers from far abroad with their more high technology and willingness to invest in their economy.

It should be noted that, along with the negative change in the structure of Russia's foreign trade, the indicators of the country's foreign economic activity as a whole have deteriorated sharply, as a result of which Russia's position in the world market has significantly weakened. Russia's share in world trade from 1985 to 2007 decreased from 3.6% to 2.7%. In terms of foreign trade turnover, Russia in 2007 ranked 16th in the world (in 1990 - 10th)3.

The main reason for the strengthening of the fuel and raw material orientation and the decrease in the industrial nature of the structure of the foreign trade of the Russian Federation and its growth rates during the years of liberalization was a significant reduction in the general economic and production potential. The industrial production of the Russian Federation in 2000 was 57% of the 1990 level, i.e. decreased by almost 2 times; agricultural production for the same period decreased by 1/3. Such a decline in industrial and agricultural production is unthinkable in peacetime.

Even during the period Patriotic War(1941-1945), when 31850 industrial enterprises, 65 thousand km railway gauge, 4100 railway stations, the industrial output of the USSR decreased by only 10% (the level of industrial production in 1945 compared to 1940 was 90%)4. Despite the steady growth of industrial production in last years, its level in 2007 was 82%, compared with 1990. At present, Russia's share in world industrial production is slightly more than 2%. The decline in industrial production

In 1998, as can be seen from Table 3, in 1998, compared with 1990, consumer prices rose by almost 12,000 times. Although inflation has declined sharply in recent years, it has nevertheless remained significant (in

In 2007, compared to 1998, consumer prices increased by 3.8 times).

Very unfavorable indicator economic condition country is a degradation in the investment sector. Some improvement in the situation in 1999-2007. did not lead to fundamental changes: in 2007, the volume of capital investments was 55% of the 1990 level (a reduction of almost 2 times) (see table 3).

As a result, the average age production equipment in Russian industry, which was 10.8 years in 1990,

2006 reached 19 years. Moreover, the share of equipment older than 20 years now reaches 40% (15% in 1990).

The increase in the service life of equipment has affected the increase in the depreciation of fixed capital in industry, which in recent years has amounted to about 50% and requires immediate modernization and replacement.

Aging of fixed assets in Russian industry not offset by the introduction of new ones. If in 1990 the coefficient of renewal of fixed assets in industry reached 7%, then at present it is only 3%5.

Undoubtedly, an essential physical and obsolescence machinery and equipment of the most active part of fixed assets predetermined a further decline in the competitiveness of engineering products manufactured by Russia, and, as a result, a reduction in its exports.

In general, at present, only about 15% of machine-building products mass-produced in the Russian Federation correspond to the world level.

An important reason for the strengthening of the fuel and energy orientation of Russian exports in the 1990s and the decrease in its efficiency was the hasty liberalization of foreign economic activity, without a scientifically substantiated concept and well-thought-out structural policy. In the early 1990s there was

effective control over the functioning of foreign economic relations did not give the expected results. According to some estimates, during the years of liberalization, from 200 to 300 billion dollars were exported abroad, which enrich Western banks, instead of working to restore the Russian economy, increase the country's export potential and improve the commodity structure of foreign trade.

Table 3

The main socio-economic indicators of Russia in 1990-2007.

(value indicators are given in current prices, percentages - in comparable prices)

19911 19981 20001 20021 20041 20051 20061 20071

Gross domestic product, billion rubles 1.4 2629.6 7305.6 10817.5 16778.8 21665.0 26882.0 32988.6

% to 19902 95.0 56.2 59.8 65.9 75.1 80.5 85.9 92.9

Industrial output, billion rubles 1.2 1707.0 4763.0 6868.0 11209.0 14785.4 15758.5 ​​19615.7

% to 19902 94.8 46.0 57.1 62.1 71.1 73.9 76.8 81.6

Investments in fixed assets, billion rubles 0.2 407.1 1165.2 1762.0 2729.8 3431.0 4485.7 6418.7

% to 19902 84.5 20.9 25.9 29.3 36.5 40.1 45.6 55.2

Average monthly nominal wage, rub. 0.576 1051.5 2223.4 4360.3 6831.8 8530.0 10634.0 13518.0

by 1990 (times) 1.9 3470.3 7337.9 14390.4 22547.2 28151.8 35094.3 44611.0

Consumer prices by 1990 (times)2 2.603 11952.4 19610.7 26770.3 33490.7 37141.2 40743.9 45592.4

Average annual exchange rate of the Bank of Russia (rubles per US dollar) 9.71 28.12 31.35 28.81 28.37 27.19 25.6

Table notes:

1. In denominated rubles

2. Changes in indicators by 1990 calculated by the author Source: Yu.V. Piskulov, V.L. Seltsovsky - World economy and trade: Stat handbook. - M: 4th branch of the Military Publishing House, 1998. Foreign Economic Complex of Russia. - M: VNIKI 2006, federal Service state statistics; Economy of Russia: results and prospects. - M: Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation, 2008, p. 7, 399-404.

the state monopoly of foreign trade was completely abolished. At the same time, the country has not developed an integrated approach to solving the problems of effective management of the foreign economic complex.

The state has practically removed itself from the regulation and control of the sphere of foreign economic activity. Was liquidated governmental support industrial export. An attempt at further creation

In addition to the noted internal factors that influenced the state of the commodity structure of the foreign trade of the Russian Federation, there are serious external factors. First of all, this is the break in integration and cooperation ties between industries and enterprises of Russia with the republics of the former USSR and former members of the CMEA, which led to the loss of markets for Russian machinery, equipment, and high-tech products in these countries. To the same negative consequences led the withdrawal from the markets of technical and economic cooperation of our traditional partners from developing countries.

All this exacerbated the decline in production, especially in the machine-building industries in Russia.

In addition, with a significant increase in the openness of the Russian economy to the world market, Western countries failed to achieve the elimination of their widely used discriminatory measures in relation to a number of Russian export goods (quotas for supplies of steel products to the EU markets, rolled non-ferrous metals, enriched uranium, numerous anti-dumping procedures for supplies to the US and EU from Russia). In a number of cases, there is political pressure on buyers of modern Russian technologies: on India (under a contract for the supply of rocket technology), on Iran (for the construction of a nuclear power plant), etc.

It is important to note that the problem of increasing exports of manufactured goods is not limited to engineering products. It is also about increasing the degree of industrial processing of natural raw materials, primarily oil, gas, coal, ferrous and non-ferrous metal ores, wood, textile and other types of raw materials.

Resources exported from Russia are in many cases deprived of pre-treatment, which significantly reduces the efficiency of our exports, since the prices on the world market for unprocessed raw materials are much lower compared to processed raw materials.

For example, our roundwood was exported in 2007 to foreign countries at a price of $84 per cubic meter, while boards were sold there at $351 per cubic meter, plywood - $502 per cubic meter, fibreboard - over $600. per cubic meter.

Now all countries of the world have practically stopped the export of roundwood, while in our country

In 2007 roundwood accounted for 34% of all exports of timber products ($4.1 billion). Moreover, this share has been steadily increasing in recent years. (In 1995 it was 27% - 1.1 billion dollars). A similar picture is observed for other natural resources.

The author calculated the ratio between the cost of exported raw materials and products of a deeper degree of their processing for four groups of goods that occupy the main place in Russian exports: fuel, ferrous metals, forest products, textiles. It showed that over the period (1991-2007) the share of goods of the above groups that were completely unprocessed and with a low degree of processing in the export of the Russian Federation increased from 68 to 73% in general, i.e. The tendency of a constant decrease in the share of processed (refined) products in the export of raw materials of the Russian Federation is clearly manifested, which indicates the low efficiency of our raw material exports.

Analysis of the structure of foreign trade of the Russian Federation in terms of the degree of processing of export goods can be carried out with the help of a statistical indicator developed by the author - the coefficient of the physical conditions of commodity exchange (trade). This indicator is defined as the ratio between average price per ton (unit) of imported goods and price per ton (unit) of exported goods and shows how many tons (units) of goods the country exports per ton (unit) of imported goods. A ratio equal to or less than one is favorable. The value of this indicator lies in the fact that it shows the state of the material intensity of exports compared to imports, and, consequently, the degree of processing and quality of exported goods compared to imported ones.

The analysis of this indicator over a number of years showed that the physical conditions of trade were always unfavorable, the coefficient of physical terms of trade in former USSR in 1990 it was 4.3, i.e. behind

1 ton of imported goods was exported 4.3 tons6.

According to data for recent years, this indicator in Russia's trade is significantly

worsened, averaging 5.57 with non-CIS countries, which confirms that the commodity structure of Russia's foreign trade has become even more inefficient. In exchange for the export of mostly unprocessed raw materials, the country receives processed finished products.

In trade with individual countries, this indicator was even more unfavorable. For example, in Russia's foreign trade with the FRG, the coefficient reached 19, i.e. for 1 ton of goods imported from Germany, our country exports 19 tons to Germany.8 This indicates that, in fact, Russia's trade with Germany is reduced to a primitive form - raw raw materials in exchange for finished products and foodstuffs. (Currently, the share of raw materials and semi-finished products in Russia's exports to Germany reaches 93%). Our country exports material-intensive raw materials to Germany at a significantly lower price per ton compared to the price per ton of finished imported products from Germany.

These indicators, calculated for individual products, indicate an unfavorable situation in terms of their export efficiency: washing machines

5.9; oil products - 3.5; rolled ferrous metals - 2.7; cars- 2.15; trucks - 2.0, etc.

In the foreign trade of the Russian Federation, there are more than 200 goods with coefficients of the physical conditions of commodity exchange of more than one.

The above data also serve as convincing evidence that improving the structure of exports by improving the quality of exported goods, increasing the degree of their processing is a very urgent task for the development of Russian foreign trade.

At the same time, it is quite obvious that our country cannot count on a significant increase in exports if its structure continues to be based on raw materials and one-sided. At present, almost all the possibilities of extensive expansion of exports at the expense of fuel and raw materials have been exhausted. The need to diversify Russian exports is caused by three factors.

The first point is that our raw material resources are not unlimited for export. The share of exports in the production of key commodities (export quota) has steadily increased in the 1990s, and for most of the major commodities of Russian exports has reached its limit.

In 2007, crude oil was exported at a rate of 53% of its total production against 18% in 1990. It is almost impossible to export more. Almost half of all petroleum products produced in the country were exported in 2007 (in 1990, only 15%).

An increase in the production of raw materials in the country is not observed, on the contrary, there is only a decrease in it. The exploration industry is in serious decline. The production of geological equipment and machinery was reduced in 1991-2006. almost 10 times. Depreciation of fixed assets in this industry is almost 75%.

Due to a sharp decline in the volume of exploration work, explored reserves for most minerals, including oil, decreased by 17-20%.

According to foreign experts, the proven oil reserves at the current level of Russia's production will last only 19 years, gas - 83 years.

Moreover, the Russian oil industry has the highest wear and tear of equipment - almost 60%, while 50% in the industry as a whole. The coefficient of renewal of fixed assets is 1%, which is below the industry average. This inevitably leads to a decrease in oil recovery from the subsoil (oil recovery) and a decrease in its production. From 1970 to 2005, oil recovery decreased from 51% to 30% and is currently almost 2 times lower than the world level, although 14%9 of all investments in fixed assets, or $23 billion, are directed to the extraction of fuel and energy minerals ., which is clearly insufficient. According to the World Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the amount of investment for development is only oil industry Russia should be at least 50 billion dollars.

The reason for this state is that the oil industry now has no motivation for investment, the main idea of ​​​​their interests is the supply of crude oil for export. The temporary oversufficiency of many oil companies with oil reserves allows them to “skim the cream”, selectively intensifying production from active reserves (up to 400

450 million tons per year), and therefore the production from "difficult" reserves is not great. Therefore, methods of increasing oil recovery are not in demand.

Thus, in our main industry, which provides free currency, real capital investments are clearly not enough. Investments in other primary industries are much lower.

It is clear that the export raw materials of our country are at the limit. If the economy of our country continues to develop, it will certainly require additional raw materials in order to use them in the country. Undoubtedly, without a significant increase in the production of raw materials, the raw material potential of the export industries of our country will inevitably decrease.

This circumstance is already reflected, for example, in gas, there are difficulties in the country - some power plants are switching to coal, which is by no means unfavorable for the economy. Since it is known that gas is a cheaper source than coal, in accordance with this, the cost of electricity produced on gas is cheaper than on coal. If we switch to coal in the production of electricity, this will lead to its rise in price, which will affect the situation in the country and the costs in other sectors of the economy.

Currently, 70% of the mineral fertilizers produced in the country are being exported, thereby undermining the production base of agriculture. The amount of fertilizers in our country is 10% of the minimum requirement. On the vast territory of Russia, potash fertilizers are consumed 1.5 times less than in Belarus. According to experts, agriculture annually loses millions of tons of grain due to an acute shortage of mineral fertilizers. Moreover, this situation has persisted for more than fifteen years. This means that it will take no less time to restore land fertility.

The development of export-oriented sectors of the economy requires the use of significant amounts of ferrous and non-ferrous metals. However, at present, from 60 to 80% of copper, nickel, aluminum, zinc, gold, platinum, and uranium produced in the country are exported from the country. This leads to a delay for many years in the development of our own export-oriented industries and industries, deprives the prospects for structural transformations in the economy and makes it even more dependent on the world market.

The second point that points to the need to diversify our exports is the change in the situation in the external commodity markets. The Western European oil market - the main market for Russian oil exports - is quite saturated, in particular, due to the growth of oil production in the North Sea. In addition, Western countries are pursuing energy saving policies, and energy consumption per unit of GDP in these countries is constantly decreasing. It is quite clear that in this connection there are no grounds to count on an increase in the supply of Russian oil and oil products.

As for metals, their consumption in the world is growing very limited, and Russian metal exporters face serious competition in the world markets. Significant difficulties in recent years in the export of products have also chemical industry, whose main export commodities are mineral fertilizers.

And, finally, the third point is that the orientation of our country exclusively to the export of raw materials cannot be strategically correct for us, because all these goods are extremely unstable in terms of the influence of the world situation on them. Commodity prices are highly volatile and subject to fluctuations under the influence of a variety of factors. Our country already faced this in 1998, when the prices for oil and oil products fell sharply. This circumstance, as well as the fall in prices for other raw materials, led to a reduction in exports in 1998 compared to 1997 by 16%. As a result of a sharp drop in prices, not only did the problems of foreign trade worsen, but also the revenues of the state budget of our country decreased, which was one of the important reasons for the monetary and financial crisis in Russia that erupted in August 1998.

In 2000, world oil prices, under the influence of a number of factors, reached a fairly high level and increased, in comparison with 1998, by 3 times. Over the past years, they have increased by more than 4 times and in mid-July 2008 were at an unprecedented high level, which had a positive effect on the economy of our country. It is clear that this price level could not be maintained for long. After July

2008 the market is in a fever. By the middle of October

In 2008, oil prices fell by more than 2 times against the peak figures in July, and by mid-November - by 3 times. These figures indicate that our country is at a critical level.

In addition, as already noted, an increase in the degree of processing of raw materials, an increase in the export of finished products on this basis, significantly increases the economic efficiency of foreign trade.

Based on the foregoing, the urgent task is to diversify our exports and develop export-oriented industries aimed at increasing the industrial processing of raw materials and, above all, engineering products.

Recently, various proposals have been put forward in Russia to overcome the current situation in Russian exports. Some of them are conceptual in nature, some are aimed at solving specific problems. This problem needs to be approached comprehensively, and any practical steps should be combined with the general foreign economic strategy of the state and developed on its basis. But there is no concrete realizable foreign economic strategy in our country. A good example in this area is China, where there is a clear general economic development program for several decades to come. Or Japan, where a whole export support system has been created; this is expressed, for example, in concessional lending to participants in foreign economic activity, in the creation of a unified statistical database of information important for participants in foreign economic activity, which undoubtedly facilitates their work.

In general, the task of improving the commodity structure of exports seems to be extremely difficult, in our opinion, it is necessary to solve this problem of improving the structure of exports in the following areas.

1. Efficient development export and improvement of its commodity structure is impossible without the support of the state. This support is provided to exporters in foreign countries. In Germany, for example, the state allocates more than $10 billion a year to support exports. In our country, in accordance with the Federal Export Development Program approved by the Government of the Russian Federation on February 8, 1996 and in force for the period up to 2005, it is planned to allocate funds for these purposes in the amount of 0.3-0.35% of gross domestic product per year. In terms of the official exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar, this averaged only about $1 billion a year. Unfortunately, even this amount was not allocated. It should be noted that the Law on state regulation foreign trade activities contained a provision on the annual development of a program for the development of foreign trade activities, including the section "Measures to stimulate industrial production of exports." Such programs were developed until 1998, after which they were simply forgotten.

The Concept of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation provides for a number of areas for export support. However, no mechanisms have been created to support exports and attract foreign investment, for which financial, organizational and human resources should be allocated.

The measures of state support for export should be: the creation of financial and industrial groups, the establishment of tax and credit benefits for exporters, guaranteeing state loans and risk insurance, improving information and consultations for exporters (it is in the weakness and even the absence of state information and consulting services that the root of many of our problems) , marketing and technical assistance, improvement of transport tariffs.

One of the most important measures of state support for exports is to increase investment in the economy and, above all, in export-oriented industries. However, all of these measures apply in insufficient degree due to the lack of funds allocated by the state to support exports.

As for the sources of financing, our country once placed great hopes on attracting foreign investment.

tition, considering them as an important factor in the creation new technology in industry, development of export-oriented industries. However, these hopes were not justified.

At present, in terms of the volume of attracted foreign capital and especially foreign direct investment, the Russian Federation occupies a small share in international investment cooperation - 0.5% of the total global flow of foreign direct investment. Although over the past five years, foreign direct investment in the Russian economy has increased significantly and amounted to 13 billion dollars in 2005, this amount is clearly insufficient. For comparison, we note that the inflow of direct investment per year to the USA is 10 times, to the UK 7 times, to China almost 6 times more than to Russia (according to 2004 data). In 2006-2007 direct investments in the Russian economy increased by more than 3 times compared to 2005. However, over 8 months of 2008 they decreased by more than 2 times and continued to decrease in 2008 due to the global economic crisis.

The reason for the low attractiveness of Russia as an importer of foreign capital is, first of all, the instability of legislation in relation to a foreign investor.

In addition, the high level of taxes and transport tariffs has a negative impact on foreign investors.

It should also be noted that after the liquidation of the Russian Agency international cooperation and development - RAMSIR, there is no single body left in the country that would be entrusted with the functions of implementing a unified state strategy in the field of attracting foreign capital. Therefore, the creation of such a body in the country, according to the author, is essential to intensify work to attract foreign investment in the economy of our country.

The slow growth of the country's economic development after a significant decline in production in 1991-1998, as well as the high level of corruption in business, also significantly affect the attractiveness of investments in Russia.

In this regard, it is necessary to increase the participation of the state in creating a more favorable investment climate.

Thus, targeted state support for the production and export promotion of competitive finished products, the creation of a favorable climate for foreign investment should become an important strategic direction not only for foreign economic policy, but also for the economic policy of the country as a whole.

2. Of particular relevance is the increasing importance of the state in the development and implementation of foreign economic relations. It is advisable to increase the participation of the state through more efficient and effective use of tariff and non-tariff methods in regulating the foreign economic relations of our country.

In our opinion, one of the ways to prevent the export of unprocessed raw materials from Russia could be the establishment of increased export duties on its export. However, until 2008 there was no such differentiation in setting export duties depending on the degree of processing of goods. Unprocessed timber was exported in 2003 with an export duty of 6.5% of its value, cellulose - 10%, crude oil and oil products had the same export duty - $ 34 per 1 ton.

In 2007, the export duty was 10% of the cost for both processed wood and paper and cardboard; there was no differentiation in setting export duties for oil and oil products. At the end of 2007, export rates were differentiated customs tariff(tariff escalation) for a number of goods depending on the degree of their processing. However, this differentiation is not yet sufficiently effective. At the same time, the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, among the measures for the application of customs tariff regulation instruments, does not indicate the need for differentiation (escalation) of export customs tariff rates depending on the degree of processing of goods, although these measures are especially are important for improving the efficiency of Russian exports and have already begun to be implemented.

It is also necessary to further strengthen foreign exchange control in foreign trade. Due to the fact that huge losses of foreign exchange

revenues by our country due to the underestimation of contract prices compared to world prices (20 billion dollars a year at present) cause an urgent need to resume the state examination of contract prices, which was canceled by the Government in 1996.10

It should also be noted that several hundred thousand firms and companies are currently involved in the field of foreign economic relations, many of which do not have qualified personnel. In our opinion, the introduction of a special licensing system for participants in foreign economic relations (as in banking and insurance) would make it possible to strengthen state control and increase the efficiency of foreign economic relations.

A serious problem of increasing the role of our state in the implementation of foreign economic relations, posed recently by some economists, is the consideration of the question of returning to the state monopoly of foreign trade. An informed decision on this issue is of great importance. Over the past 15 years (1993-2007), the trade surplus of our country has exceeded a trillion dollars, incl. over the past 4 years, 565 billion dollars. As a result of favorable terms of trade due to the growth of world prices for fuel and raw materials, our country received for 1999-

2007 a huge amount - $ 206.3 billion, which significantly exceeds similar income in favorable periods Soviet trade. At the same time, due to the absence of a state monopoly of foreign trade, these colossal incomes from foreign trade are only partially (due to taxes and duties) received by the state. The introduction of a monopoly of foreign trade in our country, at least for goods constituting natural resources, primarily oil and gas, would undoubtedly be an important source of financial resources, to boost the Russian economy. The introduction of a foreign trade monopoly does not contradict our existing legislation. So, in the law on state regulation of foreign trade activity there is a special article, which says that the state can introduce a state monopoly on the export of certain goods.

3. For the successful development of Russian exports, it is necessary to further improve the legal framework of the international

cooperation in order to provide access for Russian goods to foreign markets, the abolition of many discriminatory restrictions on trade by foreign partners. Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization is gaining priority in this matter. However, the main task in the negotiations on Russia's accession to the WTO is terms of membership acceptable to Russia.

4. On the basis of the existing economic potential, it is possible to improve the structure of exports. In the last years of the existence of the USSR, the competitiveness of the products of a number of leading engineering industries has increased: the aerospace complex, power engineering, including nuclear, and some others. Russian cars were supplied in significant volumes, metal cutting machines, complete equipment, road construction equipment, which shows the existing prerequisites for the development of exports of engineering products.

The Soviet Union provided assistance in the construction of a large number of enterprises in China, Eastern European and some developing countries. Now these enterprises are in need of modernization, for which the former Russian suppliers are involved. This is also an opportunity to increase exports, including engineering.

The Russian military-industrial complex still has a powerful scientific and technical potential, which uses the most modern technologies in production, the products of which are widely recognized on the world market. In this regard, on this basis, the possibilities of creating competitive science-intensive civilian products are laid. Of course, maintaining a high scientific and technical level of military-industrial complex production and financing programs for its conversion also requires large investments.

Russia has significant reserves in increasing the export of military-technical products to the countries of Central and of Eastern Europe. This is due to the urgent need of the armies of these countries to modernize and replenish the Soviet and Russian military equipment in their arsenal. A number of Central and Eastern European countries have joined NATO. However, retrofitting them

armed forces with NATO military equipment will be extremely expensive. Since their rearmament will take at least the next ten years, and if Russia's relations with NATO develop constructively, Russia has the opportunity to supply its military-technical products to these countries within the specified period.

At present, there are great opportunities to significantly increase the economic efficiency of exports and the volume of foreign exchange earnings based on available export resources by increasing the degree of processing of exported raw materials and increasing the share of semi-finished and finished products in exports: concentrates, high-quality rolled products, pipes and pellets instead of ores, cast iron, ferroalloys , oil products and petrochemical products instead of crude oil; plywood, pulp, paper, furniture instead of roundwood and sawn timber, clothing and linen instead of textile raw materials and fabrics, etc.

It is also impossible not to note such an important element of the export potential as technical service which requires constant attention. Many of our machine-building enterprises give priority to the production of finished machines and care little about the production of spare parts. The lack of timely deliveries of spare parts in a number of cases does not make it possible to meet the requirements of buyers, which is a brake on the development of Russian exports of engineering products.

In this regard, an increase in the share of components and spare parts in the trade of the Russian Federation in machinery and equipment based on the expansion of their production, improvement Maintenance sold machinery products is an important area for expanding its exports.

Obviously, the state of the country's foreign trade largely depends on the level of development of production. Therefore, the basis for successfully solving the problems of improving the export structure of the Russian Federation is the rise of the country's economy, the growth of its industrial and scientific potential and

overcoming the colossal decline in production in 1991-1998.

It is also obvious that one of the most important conditions for the rise of the economy of our country, its scientific and industrial potential is an increase in investment in the national economy. According to some estimates, the required amount of capital investment to boost the country's economy is $140 billion a year. Of course, this amount of investment is significant. But, even just using the reserves to improve the efficiency of our country's foreign economic activity, which were discussed above, you can get the necessary amount for investment in the national economy. Finding these reserves is especially important in the context of the financial and economic crisis in the country.

Notes:

1 Calculated according to: International Trade Statistics WTO, 2007, p. : 209, 223, 225, 227.

4 National Economy of the USSR 1922 -1982: Jubilee Statistical Yearbook. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1982. - S. 55-58.

5 Russian Statistical Yearbook. 2001-2007.

6 Calculated based on materials from the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations of the USSR.

7 Calculated according to customs statistics.

8 Calculated according to Auss enhandel. Reihe 1. Zussamenfassende Ubersichten fur den Aussenhandel. stat. Bundesamt, Wiesbaden, 2005.

9 Calculated according to: Russian Statistical Yearbook, 2007

10 Calculated according to the methodology given in the monograph: V.L. Seltsovsky. Economic and statistical methods of foreign trade analysis - M.: Finance and statistics, 2004, ss. 236237, 242-247.