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Elusive "Vanguard": cosmic speed and complex trajectory. Vulnerable "Vanguard": how to neutralize a miracle weapon

Elusive

On the evening of October 19, an explosion occurred at a pyrotechnic plant in Gatchina. Part of the building collapsed, killing at least four people. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, another 11 were injured, two were hospitalized. Due to the incident, the movement of trains on nearby tracks was stopped.

"Paper" collected everything that is known about the explosion in Gatchina.

The explosion in Gatchina occurred around 17:00. Four people died

At the Ministry of Emergency Situations in the Leningrad Region "Paper" They said that the explosion occurred in the main building of the Avangard pyrotechnic plant. According to the department, at 19:20 on November 19, at least two people were killed, two more were injured. By the morning of October 20, the Ministry of Emergency Situations that killed four people. As of 07:00 on October 20, rescuers cleared 80% of the rubble.

The press service of the government of the Leningrad region reported that the explosion at the plant occurred after the main shift left the shop. Factory worker Dmitry says that everyone was released earlier because there was a short circuit in one of the shops. “Everything was extinguished with fire extinguishers, de-energized,” he said, noting that the fire occurred 200-300 meters from this place.

According to RIA Novosti, there were five people in the building at the time of the explosion.

Residents of the village of Malyye Kolpany, which is located 58 kilometers from St. Petersburg, began to report an explosion at about 16:45. Photos of thick smoke came from residents located several kilometers from the epicenter. In buildings nearby, judging by the photographs, windows were broken and the roof was damaged. The explosion damaged at least 13 houses, said the governor of the Leningrad region Alexander Drozdenko.

Due to the explosion, the factory building partially collapsed. People were pulled out from under the rubble

The factory building was partially destroyed. Two people were pulled out from under the blockage formed at the epicenter of the explosion, the Ministry of Emergency Situations reported. They were sent to the hospital.

As a result of an explosion at the Avangard plant in the Leningrad Region. This is reported by the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

“Two people died, two were hospitalized,” the department said.

At the same time, the authorities of the Leningrad region denied the information that among the victims of the explosion in Gatchina was a child, previously published by TASS with reference to a source in law enforcement agencies.

“According to the information reported from the scene, this is not confirmed, it is a fake,” the press service of the regional administration reports to TASS.

Earlier it was also reported that four people could be under the rubble formed as a result of the explosion. According to the representative of the Ministry of Emergency Situations on the air of the TV channel "Russia 24" Timur Khikmatov, rescuers removed two victims.

“According to our information, four people are under the rubble and, according to the latest operational data, a second person was pulled out from under the rubble. Work continues,” Khikmatov said. He noted that a technological explosion occurred at the plant without subsequent ignition.

“It happened as a result of work at the plant, this is not a terrorist attack,” the representative of the Ministry of Emergency Situations specified. At the same time, Timur Khikmatov noted that there was no danger to residential buildings located near the plant where the explosion occurred.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the explosion caused significant damage to industrial buildings - about 30% of the plant was destroyed.

An operational-investigative group under the leadership of the first deputy head is working at the scene of the incident. investigative department The Investigative Committee of Russia for the Leningrad Region, forensic investigators, as well as employees of the Department for the Investigation of Particularly Important Cases. The governor of the Leningrad region Alexander Drozdenko also visited the scene.

“An explosion at a pyrotechnics plant in Gatchina, previously a household building. Went out to the place. Services are on alert,” he wrote on his Instagram.

Due to the explosion, the contact network on railway. In particular, railway traffic in the Luga direction was temporarily stopped, one suburban electric train was detained. According to the latest data, the damaged railway infrastructure has been restored, and no delays in train traffic are predicted.

An enterprise with a history

The Avangard plant began producing pyrotechnics back in 1944. The enterprise is located in the village of Malye Kolpany, Gatchina district, Leningrad region.

In the 1960s, it was expanded with several new structural divisions, and the plant itself was renamed the Gatchina Metalware Plant. Since 2002, the company has been named Avangard. Today it employs more than 700 people.

In addition to pyrotechnics, the plant produces camping furniture and metal cornices. Firecrackers, Bengal candles, sets of toys, confetti and serpentines are among the plant's pyrotechnic goods. According to information from the official website of the company, the manufactured products have all the necessary certificates and licenses.

As reported on the website of the Main Investigation Department of the Investigative Committee for the Leningrad Region, investigators opened a criminal case into the explosion.

"The investigative bodies of the investigative department of the Investigative Committee Russian Federation in the Leningrad region, a criminal case was initiated on the grounds of a crime under Part 2 of Art. 217 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (“Violation of safety rules at explosive facilities, resulting in the death of a person by negligence”),” the report says.

The most important result of the year is a new Russian weapon. The alignment of forces now can be compared with 1945, when the United States had atomic bomb while the USSR did not. Only now - in our favor. A cardinal shift took place just recently, when the President actually received the Avangard intercontinental missile by visiting the National Defense Control Center. From the Orenburg region, he flew to the Kamchatka training ground, accurately hitting conditional targets.

The Americans have nothing of the kind, and in general no one else has it - only Russia. This is a real breakthrough - one of those that Putin spoke about the need for in his March Address. The launch can be compared with the first breakthrough into space, when the Soviet Sputnik flew in 1957. Then in our country there was general rejoicing, and in the world - just a shock.

Just as Sputnik became a technological breakthrough - the first flight into space - with a revolutionary use of new physical principles, so now Avangard has shown the unprecedented and unheard of. Speed ​​- 27 times the speed of sound! At different heights, the speed of sound is different. The higher, the slower.

So when we talk about Mach 27, it is in a rarefied atmosphere, at certain stages of the trajectory. In any case, the Avangard flies at a speed close to the first space one. And this is in the atmosphere, in a ball of fiery plasma, like a meteorite. The temperature of such a ball is well over a thousand degrees. In this case, the metal should melt, and the Avangard flies and still “thinks” where.

In flight, it is controlled vertically and horizontally, which means that no one knows where it will be in the next second. The highest speed and unpredictability make the Avangard invulnerable to any anti-missile defense (ABM). This means that Avangard is capable of destroying the most precious thing - space communication centers - and then any missile defense system will instantly "go blind".

The Americans tried to create something similar, but they failed. Their huge corrupt military budget is for another.

Considering that earlier this year new Kinzhal air-launched missiles, also hypersonic and also invulnerable, were put into service, this means that aircraft carriers are no longer invulnerable. "Dagger" in America is called "aircraft carrier killer". That is, aircraft carriers, expensive and always considered a symbol of American power, the very ones that the United States uses in local wars around the world, are now nothing more than floating scrap metal.

Yes, now Russia has made a radical breakthrough. But let no one think that for no reason we just decided to get ahead of someone. The arms race was proposed by the United States, having unilaterally withdrawn from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty - ABM. Back in 2004, we warned that in response to their determination to create a global missile defense system, we would be forced to take care of ways to overcome it, so that America would not have a sense of impunity from possessing a missile defense system in the event of a first strike against Russia. We were then told: do what you want. They simply brushed it aside, not believing in Russia's capabilities. Now that their missile defense system has been devalued, the situation is as it is. Not our choice, but our right to protect ourselves from stupidity.

Snow-covered Orenburg steppe. The positional area of ​​the Strategic Rocket Forces Dombarovsky is one of the five Russian spaceports. In one of the shafts there is a launch vehicle, under the fairing of which -. Everything is ready to start.

The National Defense Command Center includes a Supreme Commander-in-Chief President. He accepts the report of Colonel General Sergei Karakaev, commander of the Strategic Missile Forces. He answers very briefly: "I allow it. Good luck."

After a few seconds, the lid of the shaft opens. In the professional terminology of rocket scientists, this is called a "protective device." The flame breaks out - the first stage begins to work. Vanguard starts.

“Dear comrades, I want to address everyone, first of all, the general designer, engineers, workers, everyone who created this promising weapon system. I congratulate you on a great event in the life of the Armed Forces and in ensuring security Russian state", the head of state said.

In accordance with the calculated characteristics, the Vanguard is capable of moving 20 times faster than sound. But even such a fantastic, it would seem, speed is not the limit for him.

"Recent tests have shown that it has reached speeds close to mach 30. At these speeds, not one anti-missile system can shoot it down," said Yuri Borisov, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation for the military-industrial complex.

The flight took place along the route Dombarovsky — Kura. It was at the Kamchatka training ground that many of our missile weapons were tested. This time, too, the missilemen successfully received the Avangard warhead. Surely there is a video of the hit. But for now, everything is top secret.

This is the main difference between the Avangard and an intercontinental ballistic missile. A ballistic missile moves more or less predictably. Start - access to near space - operation of the booster stage - flight of warheads to the target at speeds from Mach 4 to Mach 8. In a straight line or with maneuvering. But in any case, the missile defense system of a potential adversary more or less successfully monitors and controls such a flight. Anti-missiles are launched to intercept from the ground. For everything about everything, a maximum of one and a half minutes.

And here's how Vanguard works. After separation from the launch vehicle, the warhead develops almost space speeds. Mach 27 is very close to the first space one. At the same time, the Avangard can move both in near space and in dense layers of the atmosphere at lower altitudes. Actively manoeuvres. That is, it is not only more difficult to detect it - it is almost impossible. But even if it works out, then after entering the enemy missile defense zone, there will be 20-25 seconds left before hitting the target. Anti-missile designed to intercept best case will just get started. But in a moment, "Vanguard" will be in a completely different point in space.

"This means that the block has no trajectory. And any air defense and missile defense system is based on the fact that the trajectory is calculated and an anti-missile meets a missile on the opposite course and destroys it. But when there is no trajectory, it is impossible to calculate anything in principle," Sergey explained Ivanov, special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for environmental protection, ecology and transport.

But this project could not take place. 2004 year. Many defense enterprises are paralyzed, others are falling apart. And suddenly Putin declares that Russia is on the verge of creating a completely new weapon.

And then - a lull for several years. At some point, the question arose of closing the project altogether. The main difficulty is how to control a block flying in a plasma cloud. But the general designer asked the president to give him another chance. And it has been used.

“Indeed, this is the third test, which confirmed all the main declared characteristics, and last year we already proactively signed a serial contract for the supply of this complex. We hope that the first regiment will be put into service next year,” said Yuri Borisov.

Russian designers have done the seemingly impossible. America, with its battalion of Nobel laureates, is unsuccessfully trying to ride hypersound. And we have - ready samples. In March, the President announces that hypersonic weapons will be on combat duty in the near future. But what was it worth?! How many specialists provided this breakthrough? Putin revealed the secret.

“When work on one of these complexes, including Avangard, was completed, I asked them to bring me a list of people who should be noted and awarded. They brought me several sheets where not people, but enterprises, research institutes were in small type And design bureaus. I flipped through and said: what is this? And me chief designer says: this is our cooperation. Without one of them, the product would not have taken place," the president said.

And now, just a few months later, the Avangard is ready for combat use. The positional area for its placement has already been allocated.

The plant for the production of pyrotechnic products "Avangard", whose production facilities are located on the territory of the village of Malyye Kolpany, in the Gatchina district of the Leningrad region, was destroyed by a powerful explosion yesterday, October 19, 2018. According to the official representative of the plant, none of the employees of the enterprise was injured.

Correspondents news agency Express-Novosti visited the scene of the incident and personally spoke with employees of the enterprise and local residents. In particular, we found that the incident occurred around 16:40 Moscow time, which led to the destruction of about 30% of all production capacity factory. If we turn to the statement of the head of the press service of the North-West Regional Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Fyodor Polshyn, he speaks of the destruction on the territory of about 1.2 thousand m 2.

According to official statements by the head of the Avangard pyrotechnic products enterprise, Georgy Mikhno, despite such serious damage, none of the employees of the enterprise was injured. Also, emergency services managed to quickly localize the fire that resulted from the explosion, which made it possible to avoid more serious consequences. Only three cars parked near the site of the explosion were injured. Meanwhile, unofficial sources claim that as a result of the incident, two people died and three more were injured. However, this information will already be clarified by the investigation.

According to the information available to the editors of IA Express-Novosti, investigative committee Russia in the region has already named the reasons that could provoke an explosion at a pyrotechnics enterprise:

“The cause of the explosion at the Avangard pyrotechnics plant in the city of Gatchina was the violation of technology and safety measures by the employees of the enterprise,”- says the official statement of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation for the Leningrad Region, published on the agency's website.

Separately, in the statement, the emphasis is placed on the fact that in one of the workshops, in which they were engaged in the manufacture of a mixture for pyrotechnic products, citizens worked without official registration according to employment contract. The investigation also found out that these employees did not have the appropriate permits to carry out work of a similar nature. And it was the incompetent actions of these employees that led to the emergence of an explosive situation.

At the moment, an investigation team is working at the Avangard enterprise, which is investigating a criminal case initiated under article 217 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation “Violation of safety rules at explosive facilities, resulting in the death of a person through negligence.” Meanwhile, as it has just become known, the investigative team has reclassified the criminal case from Part 2 of Art. 217 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, at part 3 of article 217 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation “Violation of safety rules at explosive objects, resulting in the death of two or more persons through negligence.” Thus, it can be assumed that the information about the death of two employees of the Avangard enterprise, nevertheless, was confirmed.

We can only focus on the fact that as part of the investigation of the criminal case, the chief and engineer of the enterprise has already been detained. Investigators are working with him. And yes, the number of dead people can be increased, as rescuers are still clearing the rubble.

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According to official data, the Avangard is a hypersonic glider. Note: not a hypersonic missile, since it does not have its own march installation and does not maintain speed in flight. That is, it uses the kinetic energy given to it by the launch booster - an intercontinental ballistic missile - for a gliding flight in the atmosphere.


Conventional warheads are sent by ICBMs along a high ballistic trajectory - in fact, an orbit that intersects the earth's surface at the target location. Most of the time, conventional warheads spend in free fall in space, entering the atmosphere for only a short time directly near the target.


"Vanguard", according to official data, uses the speed attached to the ICBM to move along a wave-like trajectory in the atmosphere. Let me remind you again: Avangard is NOT a rocket, but a glider. It receives all the energy for its movement from the stock of kinetic energy originally given to it by the ICBM. The flight of the Avangard is the use of this reserve to create lift in the atmosphere.


Due to such a trajectory and the ability to use atmospheric friction for active maneuvering, the Avangard is much less vulnerable to missile defense systems that intercept in the extra-atmospheric section of the trajectory. The main advantage is the ability to unpredictably change the trajectory on a "dive" into the atmosphere, performing maneuvers both horizontally and vertically, with a "turn radius" of hundreds and even thousands of kilometers.


The use of the atmosphere allows the "Vanguard" - consuming the initially accumulated stock of kinetic energy - to maneuver much more actively than an atmospheric rocket, forced to use only extremely limited on-board fuel reserves, can. In essence, Avangard is engaged in continuous airbreaking, using atmospheric friction to correct the trajectory, and lifting force his body - to maintain the flight altitude. Therefore, the interception of the Avangard by exoatmospheric systems - like the GBI and SM-3 - is difficult. Interceptors have, in fact, to try to block all possible directions of maneuver of the Vanguard at once, so that at least one interceptor is close enough for a terminal maneuver. This, quite naturally, complicates and increases the cost of interception.



An additional advantage of Avangard is the high accuracy of the system - due to the possibility of constant correction of the trajectory, including the terminal stage (at the moment it is not clear whether this is carried out during a gliding flight, or the device makes a ballistic "jump" and then "dive" on the target from outside the atmosphere). It seems quite achievable (in theory) CEP up to meters, usually not associated with ballistic missiles.


Because of these features, a somewhat ... mystical, I would say, idea has developed in Runet about Avangard. This weapon is called not only advanced (which is quite true) and unparalleled (which is also true - at the present time, of course), but also "fundamentally invulnerable" (which is NOT true). In recent discussions on various forums, I noted with surprise that any doubts about the fundamental invulnerability of the Avangard are perceived with irritation, almost with indignation. On reflection, I came to the conclusion that this is precisely the effect of tearing off the halo of mysticism - a kind of "session of magic with its full exposure." It is obvious that the "exposing" of the focus as such will be of interest mainly to specialists who are able to evaluate not only the external side, but also internal structure. Most viewers are only interested in the external component of the focus, and "exposing the magic" will most likely only cause dissatisfaction.


However, as you know, no advantage comes without a price. And in this case the price of advantages for the "Vanguard" is as follows:


High visibility for orbital sensors - while for ground-based radars "Avangard" is really inconspicuous (primarily due to the low altitude of the trajectory, which allows it to remain below the horizon for the radar for a long time), this does not apply to satellite systems.



The launch of the Avangard - using a conventional ICBM as a booster - will be marked by infrared missile attack warning systems in the same way as the launch of a conventional ICBM. When moving in the atmosphere, the plasma plume left by the Avangard will be clearly visible both in the infrared (by plasma radiation) and in the radio wave (due to the electrical conductivity of the plasma).


Due to the flight mode used by the Avangard, it cannot use any decoys to mislead the means of detecting and guiding the enemy. Friction against the atmosphere will immediately filter out any "light" (eg inflatable) decoys. The creation of a “heavy” decoy capable of reliably imitating the trajectory of the Avangard flight will be an extremely non-trivial task. There is reason to believe that such a decoy will be in terms of mass and dimensions (as well as cost) not much different from the Avangard itself, thereby becoming absolutely meaningless.


This means that the enemy does not have to worry about the separation of the flying "Vanguard" against the background of decoys.


Vulnerability for terminal missile defense systems - that is, for those working directly at the target of the attack.


At the terminal section, the Avangard (which has lost a significant part of its speed when gliding through the atmosphere) is already flying much slower than the ICBM warhead. And, unlike the ICBM warhead, the Avangard cannot be protected at the terminal section by “heavy” decoys (in order to reliably imitate the Avangard, such decoys must be similar in design and dimensions to hypersonic gliders, which makes them economically untenable ). Active maneuvering, of course, makes it difficult to defeat the Avangard, but near the target, its trajectory becomes a priori more predictable - otherwise, it risks missing.



The systems capable of hitting the Avangard at the terminal site include missile systems short-range missile defense system, similar to the American THAAD (at the moment it is generally recognized as the most effective missile defense system, the only one that has never missed a test). In the future, electromagnetic weapons (railguns and Gauss cannons) that can simply “throw” the potential trajectories of the Avangard with clouds of tungsten shrapnel can also become a threat to hypersonic gliders.


Vulnerability for space-based lasers - in the atmospheric regions. As we found out earlier, a space laser with a good focusing system is able to melt a hole in anything, including centimeter-thick steel. Conventional ICBMs are vulnerable to laser radiation only during acceleration and in the disengagement phase of warheads - the warheads themselves (nothing more than "bricks" of thermal protection with a nuclear charge inside, flying along a ballistic trajectory) are slightly vulnerable to lasers, and most importantly, evaluate the results of irradiation warheads is very difficult.


Avangard, for its part, is vulnerable to laser weapons not only during acceleration, but also in all atmospheric sections of its trajectory. This is due to the mode of its flight, passing partly in the atmosphere. The thermal and dynamic loads that Avangard has to endure in this case are a priori much higher and longer than those of a conventional ballistic warhead. Even a slight damage to the thermal protection (especially a weakening of the skin) will lead to the fact that the apparatus runs the risk of prosaically collapsing and burning up on entry into the atmosphere.


At the moment, space-based lasers are mostly a promising threat. But this prospect is already much closer than it was before. Currently, the US military is running a series of parallel laser weapons development programs with the common goal of building a space-based megawatt laser by the mid-2020s.


Vulnerability to neutron warheads on anti-missiles - although now anti-missiles with nuclear warheads are not in service, nothing prevents their return. Historically, they were not considered particularly effective against conventional warheads for a rather simple reason: conventional warheads are not very vulnerable to the damaging factors of a high-altitude nuclear explosion. There is no shock wave in a vacuum, only the warhead detonation system is vulnerable to neutron radiation (and even that can be made very stable), but for effective X-ray damage, the explosion must occur close enough.


Unlike a conventional ballistic warhead, the Avangard is highly vulnerable to the damaging factors of a nuclear explosion. Neutron radiation can disrupt its many electronics, control systems, and terminal guidance. X-ray radiation can weaken thermal protection, damage (due to ablation-induced shock waves) skin, aerodynamic controls and orientation engines.


So what can we sum up?


The Avangard system is a valuable addition to Russia's nuclear (and probably not only) arsenal, significantly expanding the range of capabilities and potential responses in conflicts of varying intensity.


- At present, neither the United States nor China, the two main competitors in the "hypersonic race", have an operating analogue of such a system.

- The system has a (probably) high accuracy of striking, making it an effective "scalpel" strategic weapon.

- The system is not vulnerable to existing and future means of transatmospheric kinetic missile defense (using kinetic interceptors).

- The system is vulnerable to terminal defenses, probably to a greater extent than conventional warheads.

- The system is highly vulnerable to space-based laser weapons and nuclear warheads of interceptor missiles.

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